Is Rasmussen using D+3, or D+6?

Self | Oct 29, 2012 | Self

[HannibalHamlinJr]

Yesterday morning I believe, in a thread, at least twice it was posted that Rasmussen has moved from a D+3 to D+6 partisan model. I took it that the second post was from a Rasmussen paid subscriber. Do we have confirmation or denial of this? ... Wouldn't normally interrupt into main threads, but this is a pretty important factoid, question about veracity came up on another thread tonight. (I searched ... but without searching body of threads, can't locate it to see if it was confirmed later in the thread.)

[HannibalHamlinJr]

Yesterday morning I believe, in a thread, at least twice it was posted that Rasmussen has moved from a D+3 to D+6 partisan model. I took it that the second post was from a Rasmussen paid subscriber. Do we have confirmation or denial of this? ... Wouldn't normally interrupt into main threads, but this is a pretty important factoid, question about veracity came up on another thread tonight. (I searched ... but without searching body of threads, can't locate it to see if it was confirmed later in the thread.)

[Senator Goldwater]

Depends on where he’s polling. I think he uses 2008 and 2010 turnout averages, and then leverages it against enthusiasm factors to get a proper sample figure.

[nhwingut]

Rasmussen uses a D+3 (39D/36R/25I).

[HannibalHamlinJr]

That was my understanding UNTIL until a few weeks ago, at which point, it was pointed out pretty definitely here that Ras has stopped using his own partisan affiliation models (which were about D+4 in 08 but had moved R through 2010 to now at about R+3), and gone to a hard, solid, national D+3.

Then yesterday, people were surprised that a couple people posted he had changed even that to D+6.

I'd love to know what he's using at the state level, but I'd settle for being sure about his national model.

I'm in a daily conversation lifting the spirits of many Romney people (to the truth, as far as I'm concerned), and making fun of my liberal friends, who will eat their words for every time in the past 3 months they have called me nuts, crazy, lying etc.

[ConservativeDude]

thanks for all your posts. you have really helped a lot of us analyze and stay informed.

quick question: do you feel “pretty good” about things?

I do, personally. I go back and forth, but the lows are not as low and the highs somehow don’t feel high, but just really well...rational.

I feel pretty good.

Agree? Or no?

[HannibalHamlinJr]

Any idea what the talk of D+6 switch from D+3 was yesterday?

I can probably find the thread, but it didn’t sound like people were just tossing it out - sounded like they were paid subscribers, at least 2 people stated it as fact.

[InterceptPoint]

I can’t give you a link but we did have a Raz subscriber post a few days back that it was definitely D+3. He sounded pretty authoritative so I took him at his word.

Also, a 3 point jump from D+3 to D+6 would cost Romney nearly 3 points in the tracking poll over a 3 day period. We saw no such jump. So I’m sticking to the D+3 theory.

[stickywillie]

if Rasmussen uses D+6, and in reality there are 4% more registered Republicans than democrats, in ‘12, doesn’t that mean Rasmussen has over sampled democrats by 10? so, his 4 point lead for R/R should be 14?

[Utmost Certainty]

Ras isn’t weighting the polls—the reality is that there are just more Ds.

[CatOwner]

It’s probably D+3, and there’s a good bet that the GOP and DEMs will be within 1% of each other nationally.

[tatown]

You are like the lying Kenyan repeating the bs 5 trillion dollar tax cut that Mitt supposedly has proposed. Prove me wrong!

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

[CT]

Isn't the +(?) what Zogby called his 'secret sauce.' Then most of his burned at the bottom of the pan.

If turnout is key, shouldn't we weight the poll enough to give the average D voter enough confidence to say "Pookie" will do it, while scaring enough Americans to set 5 alarm clocks the day of the election? In that case, D+4 sounds about right.

[HannibalHamlinJr]

I’m agreed - it would make no sense not only because of that, but his numbers didn’t change.

I’ll see if I can dig it up. Whoever the 2 posters were, they were pretty clear about the D+6, appropriately shocked, and I don’t think they were ... skewing around ... so to speak.

[nhwingut]

The talk, I believe, was based on Romney winning the Indies by 20+ but still only up by 3-4. It did not seem possible.

But I think many missed that Romney was scoring 86-88% base support, not the historical 90-93. Every extra 3% from base (based on 36% Rs) adds a full point.

He did firm up his base today, and stands at 90% for Republican support. But dropped Indie support.

Also, Rasmussen only rounds off the toplines numbers. So when it shows, 50-47 for example, it could be closer to 51-46 when you dig into the data (decimal points), e.g. 50.46-46.50 will read 50-47 as the topline, but it’s actually almost 4 point lead.

[RoseofTexas]

This is my prediction...IF Romney is still in the 50% range tomorrow by a few pollster...HE WINS!! This is it..do or die, this is the last week and YOU AIN'T gonna change too many minds with nine days left TIL the big DAY! PLEASE LORD bring victory to Romney's camp....DON'T FORGET PRAYER AND FASTING TOMORROW!! This week is going to be the WEEK FROM HELL, this is the time that Obumbler and his evil demonic hordes are going to go insane and start a Racial war..or something more sinister! BE ON YOUR KNEES!!

[SoftwareEngineer]

Intercept,

that was NHWingut. See his post number 3 above.

Also see his posts in the DAILY RAS thread from yesterday and today.

NH does awesome work with the RAS Internals

[nhwingut]

Ras isn’t weighting the polls—the reality is that there are just more Ds.

That's not true.

Rasmussen does weight his poll. He uses 39/36/25. And there are in fact more Republicans than Democrats this year.

Gallup just released it's party id/electorate survey on Friday: 35D/36R/29I R+1.

Rasmussen releases his party id every month. Right now it's at R+2.6.

[HannibalHamlinJr]

No ...

Here’s where the posts are ...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2950508/posts

Gman, Ravi, Lacey2 refer to it ...

I’m reviewing to see if its refuted later in the thread.

[Political Junkie Too]

His national tracking poll weekly summary is 3.500 likely voters 36R/39D/25O.

His Florida state poll from Friday was 750 likely voters 43R/39D/18O.

His Virginia poll from Thursday was 750 likely voters 38R/37D/24O.

His Ohio poll from Wednesday was 750 likely voters 39R/38D/23O.

-PJ

[HannibalHamlinJr]

Here’s a bit copied and pasted from that thread, on Friday ...

To: The G Man
Yeah he did change it to a D+6 model. That irritates me. I think he is scared of showing a romney blowout.
10 posted on Fri Oct 26 2012 09:48:49 GMT-0400 (EDT) by Ravi