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On Being Accountable: When Predictions Go Astray
Original Accountability :)
| Oct 19, 2012
| By Laz A. Mataz
Posted on 10/18/2012 10:24:51 PM PDT by Lazamataz
It's time for me to pay the piper.
It has been observed that the best editorial work keeps the author out of the opinion, and speaks only to the issues of the day. It will be impossible for me to do this, in this editorial, because I must address my own predictions. You see, I've made a series of predictions, of which only a handful seem to have been realized. It's time to hold myself accountable.
In this article, "HEY MITT! Expect, From Obama, These Four Things At the Debate Tonight!(October 16, 2012)", I tell Mitt to expect four things. Let's score them:
- I tell Mitt Romney to expect numerous and flagrant violation of the Debate rules. On this prediction, I was one-hundred-percent accurate. Obama was quite eager to speak over his time limits, to interrupt whenever possible, and otherwise disregard the format. Mitt Romney was wonderfully prepared for this, and scored repeatedly and brilliantly with his terse rejoinders.
- I tell Mitt Romney to expect Obama to overwhelm Mitt with accusations, many brand new, and all certifiably false. This one must also be scored as accurate.
- I tell the team to expect the Obama Middle Finger gesture. Surprisingly, the finger never materalized, not even once. This was a failed prediction.
- I advise that Obama will be answering any charge made by Mitt Romney, not with an answer, but an ignoring of the question and the making of numerous counter-charges. I score this one as half-right. Sometimes Obama would defend himself, but always, he would lob numerous counter charges.
So in this article, I was accurate to about a 65% level.... which is not much better than a coin toss.In another article, I boldly predicted a military strike on Iran or Libya no later than October 15th. This 'wag the dog' scenario would be intended to garner the Rally Round the Flag effect. In this prediction, at least to-date, my bold prediction was boldly wrong. It can still happen, but the effect would be minimal in assisting Obama, since it would be too obvious it was a political act.
I think it's clear my crystal ball is not working. I owe an amend to you all, and I should stay out of the prognosticating business. Policy analysis and essays on events that have already occurred are reasonable topics.
But other than that, I boldly predict I will not make predictions of how the future will unfold in the realm of politics.
And given my track record with inferring the future, we can probably expect me to write a predictive editorial or two after all.
TOPICS: FReeper Editorial; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: allisvanity; notnews; vanity
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To: Lazamataz
Morris is useful as a prognosticator. Bet regularly against his predictions and you will come out ahead most of the time, nay- almost all of the time. That is why I am not optimistic that the kenyan will not be presidnt after the Election.
61
posted on
10/19/2012 4:30:18 AM PDT
by
arthurus
(Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINE www.fee.org/library/books/economics-in-one-lesson)
To: Revolting cat!
I believe we already had the October Surprise and it misfired badly. I think Benghazi was supposed to be a Kidnapping of the Ambassador which would end happily as the kenyan negotiated a quick release followed immediately after the election by a release/deportation of the Blind Sheik. Alas the two exSeals defended the Ambassador and the kidnapping got thwarted.
62
posted on
10/19/2012 4:35:22 AM PDT
by
arthurus
(Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINE www.fee.org/library/books/economics-in-one-lesson)
To: Lazamataz
I am shocked! SHOCKED I tell ya!
63
posted on
10/19/2012 4:41:06 AM PDT
by
luvie
(All my heroes wear camos!)
To: Lazamataz
In another article, I boldly predicted a military strike on Iran or Libya no later than October 15thAccording to our vice president and the senate majority leader, you're right on this one.
I think that ups your score! :)
To: Lazamataz
If we relied on the coin toss alone we may get 50%. Interject our humanness into it and that percentage drops quickly.
You are still way ahead of the game.
65
posted on
10/19/2012 5:07:47 AM PDT
by
Delta 21
(Oh Crap !! Did I say that out loud ??!??)
To: Lazamataz
Thanks Laz. Your thread this time was humanistic. Sixty Five percent is much better than zer0.
66
posted on
10/19/2012 5:10:44 AM PDT
by
no-to-illegals
(Please God, Protect and Bless Our Men and Women in Uniform with Victory. Amen.)
To: Lazamataz
Romney will get a large majority of the legitimate vote. Whether he will win the vote count may be a different matter. The count margin will certainly be smaller than the legitvote margin. If it is close and still not in the kenyan's favor we are in for a helluva lawyer cat fight. The outcome of that will depend on Justice Roberts who has already shown he has come to prefer the affirmation of the celebrity and social left crowd to Constitutionalism.
67
posted on
10/19/2012 5:11:57 AM PDT
by
arthurus
(Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINE www.fee.org/library/books/economics-in-one-lesson)
To: Delta 21
Thank you sir! I still will strive to improve.
To: Lazamataz
Sorry My Man,
I dis’d you and never read the last one!
If you would’ve left it alone I never would have known!
That said, keep’em comin Laz!
69
posted on
10/19/2012 5:26:20 AM PDT
by
WomBom
("I read Free Republic for the pictures")
To: Lazamataz
So in this article, I was accurate to about a 65% level.... which is not much better than a coin toss.
So you're not good at political observations. If I were you, I'd return to doing what you do best...
When it comes to Hitting It - You ALWAYS were at 100 %
70
posted on
10/19/2012 6:11:46 AM PDT
by
Responsibility2nd
(NO LIBS. This Means Liberals and (L)libertarians! Same Thing. NO LIBS!!)
To: Lazamataz
Predictions are hard.
Especially about the future.
(I can't believe nobody posted that yet)
71
posted on
10/19/2012 6:34:25 AM PDT
by
DuncanWaring
(The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
To: Responsibility2nd
So you're not good at political observations. Nossir, I wouldn't agree with that. I'm actually pretty reasonably astute when it comes to political observations.
My downfall is Political PROGNOSTATIONS....
.... and maybe Political Play-Stations.
To: DuncanWaring
From now on, I will only predict events in history.
But even then I expect only an 80% accuracy rate. ;)
To: WomBom
Sorry My Man, I disd you and never read the last one!Really? Wow, you missed out on me being really wrong! :)
To: Lazamataz
Which one's it gonna be, Laz?
75
posted on
10/19/2012 7:08:25 AM PDT
by
Hoodat
("As for God, His way is perfect" - Psalm 18:30)
To: Hoodat
I will take the plaid pill.
I could NEVER decide.
To: Lazamataz
Great job, Laz! Keep readin’ writin’ predictin’. Truth, honesty, transparency AND availability. Taking all questions, suggestions and hits. WOOOHOOO Laz!
77
posted on
10/19/2012 7:44:48 AM PDT
by
PGalt
To: Lazamataz
Dunno. I think 65% over 4 tosses in pretty good. It is better than the average “pundit” on TV.
78
posted on
10/19/2012 8:03:19 AM PDT
by
Little Ray
(AGAINST Obama in the General.)
To: Little Ray
Thanks bro. My target is 400% accuracy. :)
To: PGalt
Thanks for the cheers. I’m probably blushing a little. LOL
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