On Being Accountable: When Predictions Go Astray

Original Accountability :) | Oct 19, 2012 | By Laz A. Mataz

[Lazamataz]

It's time for me to pay the piper.

It has been observed that the best editorial work keeps the author out of the opinion, and speaks only to the issues of the day. It will be impossible for me to do this, in this editorial, because I must address my own predictions. You see, I've made a series of predictions, of which only a handful seem to have been realized. It's time to hold myself accountable.

In this article, "HEY MITT! Expect, From Obama, These Four Things At the Debate Tonight!(October 16, 2012)", I tell Mitt to expect four things. Let's score them:

1. I tell Mitt Romney to expect numerous and flagrant violation of the Debate rules. On this prediction, I was one-hundred-percent accurate. Obama was quite eager to speak over his time limits, to interrupt whenever possible, and otherwise disregard the format. Mitt Romney was wonderfully prepared for this, and scored repeatedly and brilliantly with his terse rejoinders.
2. I tell Mitt Romney to expect Obama to overwhelm Mitt with accusations, many brand new, and all certifiably false. This one must also be scored as accurate.
3. I tell the team to expect the Obama Middle Finger gesture. Surprisingly, the finger never materalized, not even once. This was a failed prediction.
4. I advise that Obama will be answering any charge made by Mitt Romney, not with an answer, but an ignoring of the question and the making of numerous counter-charges. I score this one as half-right. Sometimes Obama would defend himself, but always, he would lob numerous counter charges.

So in this article, I was accurate to about a 65% level.... which is not much better than a coin toss.

In another article, I boldly predicted a military strike on Iran or Libya no later than October 15th. This 'wag the dog' scenario would be intended to garner the Rally Round the Flag effect. In this prediction, at least to-date, my bold prediction was boldly wrong. It can still happen, but the effect would be minimal in assisting Obama, since it would be too obvious it was a political act.

I think it's clear my crystal ball is not working. I owe an amend to you all, and I should stay out of the prognosticating business. Policy analysis and essays on events that have already occurred are reasonable topics.

But other than that, I boldly predict I will not make predictions of how the future will unfold in the realm of politics.

And given my track record with inferring the future, we can probably expect me to write a predictive editorial or two after all.

[Cyber Liberty]

Giving up would be a disservice, so you must do the alternative. Get better. On balance, your prognostication score of 65 is better than most of the “pros” out there. And a lot more entertaining.

[Lazamataz]

With binders full of failed predictions, your skills are not optimal.

It's a bump in the road.

[The Citizen Soldier]

Babe Ruth led the league in strike-outs. You will never hit the long ball if you don’t swing the bat.

Oh, ...he'll hit it!

[Lazamataz]

Awh. Thanks pal. Whatever the result, I did need to come clean and not sweep the 'fails' under the rug, like the pro's so often do.

I just can't be like those guys, when it comes to this.

[Lazamataz]

If I may predict a few times on your prediction thread..? Romney wins big enough to be declared the winner by midnight eastern.. At least one poster will agree. Many will not. At least one will declare he/she is not voting for Romney. At least one post regarding vote fraud. Much snark.

I agree with your prediction, but at the same time, I do not. That is because I cannot vote for Romney. What's the point, there's so much Democrat voter fraud?

;)

[Lazamataz]

This is a pretty unpredictable election season. It’s been a little bit strange.

True that! The normal rules don't seem to apply!

[cardinal4]

FAIL: you didn’t snark!

[Lazamataz]

I predicted you'd notice that.

I'm getting better at predicting already.

[Snuph]

I am simply pointing out that both options are currently being discussed in non US media.

The “deal” to stop enrichment would not actually be done. Rather simply announced right before the last debate. No time for anyone to prepare or to authenticate before the debate nor the election. This requires Tehran’s complicity. Something they would do for free rather than face a Romney Presidency. However, I am of the opinion Zero will give them whatever they wish for the public assistance.

If they do not go with his plan, then the military option is ready to be used.

This is the opinion making waves in the middle east and to some extent in Europe.

Thought I would pass it along.

Snuph

[Lazamataz]

Appreciate you posting it. :)

[Cyber Liberty]

You’re in good company. Safire, I believe it was, used to publish annual columns taking himself to task for failed predictions from the previous year. Tony Snow, too.

[Lazamataz]

You’re in good company. Safire, I believe it was, used to publish annual columns taking himself to task for failed predictions from the previous year. Tony Snow, too.

Well good! Looks like I am on the right track by posting this sort of self-evaluation/criticism, after all. I had my doubts.

[Cyber Liberty]

You did the right thing posting it on FR. See all the folks willing to come out and tell you you’re stupid. ;^)

[Berlin_Freeper]

In baseball .650 batting average would be fantastic.

Keep slugging Laz!

[Jemian]

Nope. I love you.

[Lazamataz]

LOL!

[Lazamataz]

Dijya ever think when we first met, we'd become such fast friends???

ANOTHER one of my predictions, dashed. :)

[sodpoodle]

I predicted that Romney would win the GOP nomination and FReepers would enthusiastically support him.

There is no need to check my posts - I didn’t spell it out because I was fearful of being banned.

But I do have emails to myself....so there;(

[Sirius Lee]

I predicted that Romney would win the GOP nomination and FReepers would enthusiastically support him.

Maybe some, but I'm really holding my nose in order to vote for him. He's a liberal jerk, but he's less of a liberal jerk than obama. Oh, and at least he's not a muslim. For a Conservative it's nothing to be proud of. It's like cutting off your leg to stop the spread of cancer and hoping that you've slowed it down enough until a real Conservative can come along to cure the disease of liberalism.

[sodpoodle]

You are correct. True Conservatives should, nevertheless take this only opportunity to get rid of Obama.

My concern is what the Lame Duck Liberal and his lame duck Congressional cohorts will do between November and January.

Obama is vengeful. He will leave Romney a bucketful of spit to sort out.

Romney is a decent human being - even if his record is slippery. I believe his best and worst attribute is that he listens to people and thus is open to both good and bad ideas; he needs to temper that with a heavy dose of Constitutional history and Conservative values (a la Newt).