On Being Accountable: When Predictions Go Astray

Original Accountability :) | Oct 19, 2012 | By Laz A. Mataz

[Lazamataz]

It's time for me to pay the piper.

It has been observed that the best editorial work keeps the author out of the opinion, and speaks only to the issues of the day. It will be impossible for me to do this, in this editorial, because I must address my own predictions. You see, I've made a series of predictions, of which only a handful seem to have been realized. It's time to hold myself accountable.

In this article, "HEY MITT! Expect, From Obama, These Four Things At the Debate Tonight!(October 16, 2012)", I tell Mitt to expect four things. Let's score them:

1. I tell Mitt Romney to expect numerous and flagrant violation of the Debate rules. On this prediction, I was one-hundred-percent accurate. Obama was quite eager to speak over his time limits, to interrupt whenever possible, and otherwise disregard the format. Mitt Romney was wonderfully prepared for this, and scored repeatedly and brilliantly with his terse rejoinders.
2. I tell Mitt Romney to expect Obama to overwhelm Mitt with accusations, many brand new, and all certifiably false. This one must also be scored as accurate.
3. I tell the team to expect the Obama Middle Finger gesture. Surprisingly, the finger never materalized, not even once. This was a failed prediction.
4. I advise that Obama will be answering any charge made by Mitt Romney, not with an answer, but an ignoring of the question and the making of numerous counter-charges. I score this one as half-right. Sometimes Obama would defend himself, but always, he would lob numerous counter charges.

So in this article, I was accurate to about a 65% level.... which is not much better than a coin toss.

In another article, I boldly predicted a military strike on Iran or Libya no later than October 15th. This 'wag the dog' scenario would be intended to garner the Rally Round the Flag effect. In this prediction, at least to-date, my bold prediction was boldly wrong. It can still happen, but the effect would be minimal in assisting Obama, since it would be too obvious it was a political act.

I think it's clear my crystal ball is not working. I owe an amend to you all, and I should stay out of the prognosticating business. Policy analysis and essays on events that have already occurred are reasonable topics.

But other than that, I boldly predict I will not make predictions of how the future will unfold in the realm of politics.

And given my track record with inferring the future, we can probably expect me to write a predictive editorial or two after all.

[Lazamataz]

The Official Lazamataz Being-Contrite-When-He-Is-Wrong Ping List
153 Less-Than-Satisfied Customers!™

[Revolting cat!]

[Lazamataz]

You hate me! You really, really, hate me!

[Cyber Liberty]

Babe Ruth led the league in strike-outs. You will never hit the long ball if you don’t swing the bat.

[Jeff Chandler]

Not to put too fine a point on it, but as a prognosticator, you suck.

[Jet Jaguar]

If you predicted it, and they read it, they would have to change plans.

Nobody wants to be predictable, especially by LAZ.

[kevao]

Read more; post less.

[Lazamataz]

Wow! Good point.

One thing is important to me: I will not be a Dick Morris-type. Morris makes predictions, then when he is wrong, he ignores it and moves to the next one. I feel that is wrong. I feel you should remain accountable and either: A) Stop predicting, or B) Get better at it.

Right now I'm doing the accountable part. I simply won't ignore my misses and move on. That would do a disservice to all of YOU.

[Revolting cat!]

[berdie]

This is a pretty unpredictable election season. It’s been a little bit strange.

I have been using my crystal ball for putting practice. ;)

[TexasTransplant]

I flipped a coin... You Won... keep me on your ping list

TT

[Spktyr]

Have you considered upgrading to the new iCrystal? :P

[Revolting cat!]

Go ahead, perdict a October surprise. You can’t miss!

[Lazamataz]

Read more; post less.

THAT, I won't be doing. I already read a *lot* -- but I won't be posting less.

[Republican1795.]

Well I was right about how Obama would overdo it & try to be more hoped up than the previous debate telecast.

[Southack]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2431782/posts?page=61#61

[Lazamataz]

Not to put too fine a point on it, but as a prognosticator, you suck.

Yes sir. I do.

[chriscraft]

Take solace in the fact that the Rage Monkey is always 100% correct!

[Jeff Chandler]

; )