Posted on 10/11/2012 8:44:08 AM PDT by ReagansRaiders
Pollster John McLaughlin (not to be confused with the pundit) conducted a statewide poll of Virginia for George Allen's senate campaign this Mon. and Tue., surveying 600 likely voters. Unlike media and university polls, McLaughlin works for clients and no candidate wants to hire someone who isn't accurate. John is an ace pollster who I worked closely with for Steve Forbes in 1996, so I know that if he is going public with these numbers he is extremely confident in their accuracy as his entire reputation depends upon it. With that preface, drumroll please...
Romney 51% - Obama 44% - Goode 1%
Allen 49% - Kaine 46%
Complete crosstabs can be found here.
Virginia Ping
Amen and AMEN!
Probably somewhere if you Google it. IMO the race is much closer than this poll indicates. We must break about even in NoVA to win the state.
Mitt Romney supporters may be thrilled and President Obama’s backers chilled by the their respective performances in last week’s Denver debate, but a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll suggests voters in three swing states weren’t seriously rocked.
“Romney outfought [Obama] 4-1 in the first debate, according to likely voters in Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin,” said Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown. “The shifts are too small to measure, but the races in Wisconsin and Colorado are now too close to call. The president holds his lead in Virginia.”
Likely Colorado voters back Romney 48% to Obama’s 47%; those numbers were the reverse in a Sept. 19 poll. In Virginia, Obama leads 51% to 46% now, versus 50%-46% last time. And in Wisconsin, the president is up 50%-47% over Romney, versus 51%-45% in September.
I live in Virginia and oldest daughter is a civil servant. She said that when Romney said in the debate that he was cutting govt workers through attrition, she knew he was going to win the state. She’s heard similar things at work, too.
Do you know which one? I haven’t heard that big of a point difference in a couple of weeks.
I have the exit poll from 2-3 years ago for the McDonnell race and it shows a breakdown of 37 R, 33 D, and 30 I. If so, then Obama is in deep trouble and this race is not even close in reality.
Please, Dear God, may You continue to fill the hearts of those of my beloved Old Dominion to do the right thing...
Quinnipiac lies. They are now about the only poll showing Obumme with a lead in VA.
I believe Romney is going to win and win big. Huge, even. But that said...these next 3.5 weeks are going to be nerve wracking!
All... wanted you to know, after a drought of advertising, Romney and allied PACs are running full-force with TV ads, now. A GREAT one by a conservative women’s group ran a powerful piece highlighting Obama’s four-time vote support of killing babies who survive abortions. It’s led by former nurse Jill Stanek, and includes a testimonial by a young lady who actually survived one of those saline-type abortions. Very, very hard-hitting.
Romney’s campaign is throwing in a good mix of attack ads, along with positive ones about what to expect with a Romney Presidency.
Folks, it appears Mitt is closing the deal here in Virginia!!!
The local media is pushing a poll that has Obama up by 6 and Kaine up by a similar amount in VA.
I haven’t seen the women’s group ad yet, and to be honest I haven’t noticed a drought of Romney ads at all.
No kidding.
This all comes down to turnout.
If the GOP/DEM split is like 2004 (R+4) - Romney wins easy.
If the GOP/DEM split is like 2010 (R+3) - Romney wins easy.
If the GOP/DEM split is like 2008 (D+6) - Obama wins easy.
Though I would speculate that Romney probably has more of a cushion with IND voters then either Bush (+10) or McCain (-1) enjoyed.
Linwood Holton must not be happy. He and Charlie Crist are the only southern GOP governors to bolt parties. Or did I miss another?
Lord, hear our prayers.
Good news indeed.
Keep praying.
The only NoVA-ites I know who will be casting a second vote for Zero are an Episcopalian couple (hetero but self-loathing) and a lesbian. No surprises there.
It will be close regardless of such anecdotal information. The Dems in NoVA are organized and motivated—and they are numerous. A split here would guarantee a victory for Romney. A split is the best case scenario.
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