Posted on 09/30/2012 10:38:18 AM PDT by tatown
46A-46D among adults
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Good news!
Ping
Gallup’s numbers are still moving in the right direction.
“A” “D”?
Approve/Disapprove
If Obama’s approval stay bellow 50% he’s toast.
This is the only poll that matters.
I think Gallup has even said that no candidate with a sub 50% approval has been re-elected.
Among adults? Not reg voters, or likely voters?
Here’s what you get.
I be provin obama in duh presidency - cuz he done give me a call foam. All I has to do be have welfare, sosh curity, and foo stam - and I can git da free foam.
Good news. Among adults with a 46% approval spells disaster, and the media knows this.
Look at this tracker, Gallup’s Prez tracker, and Rasmussen’s national tracker. It’s basically a dead heat.
Don’t buy the swing states tracker. They mostly contain MI, PA, and WI - all historically Blue states (Bush won twice, w/out winning any) which greatly skews the aggregate.
VA, FL, OH, CO, NH, NV, and IA are your swing states. Isolate and focus on those states.
LOL yep that’s about right
No, I think it’s something like no candidate below 48% has ever won, and no candidate above 52% has ever lost. There’s a 5% gray area somewhere between the two percentages that either one can come out victorious.
But this might be in terms of “approval ratings” as opposed to a head-to-head matchup. Not really sure.
This tracker is the best news we’ve seen in almost a week. You are correct in that with 46% approval among adults, Obama cannot win. That is a fact.
What this tells me as well is that the ONLY way Rasmussen can show a ‘move’ towards Obama is to change his ratio of Dems to Reps.
And I don’t see things improving. Libya is going to explode in the coming week. Romney is going to call him out on national TV for the world to see, as an epic disaster. Romney will ignore every question and take the quesitons and push them back on Obama’s record. Obama will be stumbling and bumbling.
And then the jobs numbers are released on Firday. And based on the GDP, manufacturing order, and weekly UE clains, I expect to see another really weak report.
Romney could be up a couple of points by mid next week. With 4 weeks to go and a boat load of cash for ‘contrast’ ads.
More Rasmussen swing state polling: Obama leads by 2 in NV, 3 in WI. Mitt now leads in MO (+3), NC (+6), CO (+2), IA (+3), and NH (+3)
With Ras +3 on Dems that should mean NV and WI are a tie.
Keep in mind that Rasmussen’s party ID is on a rolling 3-week average basis. This has its disadvantages and advantages. Right now, it’s at a disadvantage for conservatives.
Romney’s convention IDs has rolled off and Obama’s DNC bounce IDs are still on Ras.
If there is a surge in Republican ID and enthusiasm, Gallup would be the first one to pick it up.
I don’t think the dust will settle until Election Day.
Either way, polls are to be pooped on, and I say this as a “posts on FR only when it’s poll season” type.
“I think Gallup has even said that no candidate with a sub 50% approval has been re-elected.”
Great but it’s useless to compare this election with anything in the past. We have never had a clean black run for reelection with a harem of presstitutes cleaning up after him.
Right.
But if you remove PA (Obama +12) and MI (Obama +12), the aggregate looks a heck of a lot better. Like if you were flunking two courses but then took them out of your GPA.
Especially when both states are historically Dem states. Neither has been won by GOP since 80s.
Ras does D+3 on national polls. He uses different samples for each state, i.e. PA D+7, WI D+5, etc.
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