Posted on 09/25/2012 12:04:38 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The bad news: new Washington Post polls of likely voters in Ohio and Florida show Barack Obama leading both key swing states, and outside the margin of error in Ohio. The good news? Er ... at some point, the replacement officials will get the boot from the NFL. No, seriously, the polls don't have a lot of good news, but the sample skew in Ohio might be a somewhat mitigating factor:
President Obama has grabbed a significant lead over Mitt Romney in Ohio and holds a slender edge in Florida, according to two new polls by the Washington Post that indicate there are fresh hurdles in the way of the Republican nominee’s best route to victory in the Electoral College.
Among likely voters, Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio by 52 to 44 percent. In Florida, the president is up 51 to 47 percent, a numerical but not statistically significant edge. Among all registered Florida voters, Obama is up nine percentage points.
All right, let's look at the samples, bearing in mind my analysis from earlier today. Among likely voters in the Ohio sample, the D/R/I is 37/30/30. That's a far cry from the midterm 36/37/28 — but it’s not that far off from 2008's 39/31/30. The question, then, is what kind of turnout should we expect in Ohio --- one that looks more like 2008 or 2010? Before you answer that, remember that the Republicans who won that midterm election in Ohio have struggled to maintain their momentum, although John Kasich appears to be rebounding a bit now.
Let’s look at a couple of other demos in Ohio. Romney actually has a one-point edge over Obama among likely-voter independents, 47/46. In 2008, Obama won them by eight points, 52/44, on his way to winning the state by five. However, Obama wins women by seventeen points while losing men by 1 for a +16 gender gap. In 2008, that was just +11 (+3 men, +8 women). If there’s a difference, it’s in that gender gap rather than independents.
Next, let’s look at Florida, where Obama only has a 4-point lead. The likely-voter D/R/I has a D+1 edge, 33/32/31. That’s right in the ballpark for Florida, which had a 37/34/29 in 2008 and 36/36/29 in 2010. Unfortunately, their link to the cross-tab functions isn’t working so it’s impossible to drill down further than this, but it shows that Romney needs to pick up his game in the Sunshine State, too.
Update: I had a typo in the 2010 exit polling in Ohio; the independent vote was 28%, not 38%.
As long as Romney has a decent debate, he should be able to also show why to vote FOR him, not just why to vote AGAINST Obama.
That is sorely needed here and is likely will be in the cards soon.
RE: The result is Obama 48.5%, Romney 47.7%...
Well, looks like any which way you look at it, Romney is LOSING in both Ohio and Florida. If he loses both states, we’ll have to bear with a second Obama term and all the bad things that will definitely come our way...
RE: When was this WaPO poll actually taken ?
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This is their MOST RECENT POLL. See here:
Oh, it’s from the COMpost.
Party Affiliation (Gallup)
R: 27
I: 36
D: 35
With Independent “Leaners”
R: 42
D: 51
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
How can he possibly be leading in Ohio? The economy there is not so good. Why would they vote for Obama? And the article states that the Republicans who won in 2010 are struggling, which means to me that incumbents may not be faring so well in that state.
I am glad that our side is pushing hard against this final strategy of demoralization via very biased poll, not only on the conservative blogs and radio but it is also coming from top Republican poll experts and even from the Romney campaign.
Remember that every strategy Obama and his media used against Romney have failed badly (Bain Capital, Obama tax returns, etc...)... All what they have left now is the strategy of demoralizing the Republican/Conservative base via very biased polls with either oversampling democrats and or under sampling Republicans and Independents from their actual number on elections day... Do not fall for it...
I regret the fact I have only 2 fists, b/c I’d like to punch half of this country’s “citizens” in the face.
Me too. I’ve often said that people who voted for obongo and plan to again deserve a beating.
No, the important thing is to push Obama under 50. Undecideds break disportionately for the challenger.
Obama and his MSM handmaidens are rigging the polls to push early D voting, to hurt GOP morale and fundraising, and to hurt down-ballot GOP races.
Romney has to demand that Barry the Kenyan have to speak without a teleprompter. I would also suggest that neither one of them know what the damn question is in advance. As long as they know what’s coming, it aint a debate, it’s a TV game show and nothing else. I would demand that Fox News moderate at least one of the debates, or the ubber liberal CNN and the rest of the alphabet channels will be in the tank for the Kenyan. You can see this coming a mile off. Who will be the MSNBC moderate, the drooling Chris Matthews or pancake face Lawrence O’Donnel? No matter how well Romney does Barry the big-eared Kenyan will be called the winner.
Right after the DNC, so not reasonable. The August one is more reasonable. I do think the Dems have an advantage, probably +1-+3 max.
have to ask you this.
Recently in the last two weeks we’ve seen here in this very republican county , nearly 70%, hell even if the non party and Dems are combined then republicans still outnumber them.
But anyway, are you seeing more Broward, Palm beach license plates in your area?
I ask this because we have, along wiht more than usual Ga PLATES AND THEN WE REMEMBER THIS.http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/some-georgians-suspected-of-voting-twice/nJRks/.
Also true the vote has done some digging and looked at our roles and found that after looking at NY voting rolls, well 10% of them they have found more from NY voting here and there.
We must have over 250,000 votes which are frauds here in our state and this has ot be stoped right now.
If someone from GA comes here and uses a friends address like they did in 2008 then vote here whilst voting up in GA then Rick Scott has got to stop this NOW.
On the night of the election, McCain won our state 53% to 47% but they added early voting and found obama won.
There is no need to be voting right now and I fear the left yet again are voting every day, in different places.
Sorry I missed this..I’m gonna keep an eye out for these plates in my area..
We can never underestimate how far the commies will go to screw America.
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