Posted on 09/25/2012 12:04:38 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The bad news: new Washington Post polls of likely voters in Ohio and Florida show Barack Obama leading both key swing states, and outside the margin of error in Ohio. The good news? Er ... at some point, the replacement officials will get the boot from the NFL. No, seriously, the polls don't have a lot of good news, but the sample skew in Ohio might be a somewhat mitigating factor:
President Obama has grabbed a significant lead over Mitt Romney in Ohio and holds a slender edge in Florida, according to two new polls by the Washington Post that indicate there are fresh hurdles in the way of the Republican nominee’s best route to victory in the Electoral College.
Among likely voters, Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio by 52 to 44 percent. In Florida, the president is up 51 to 47 percent, a numerical but not statistically significant edge. Among all registered Florida voters, Obama is up nine percentage points.
All right, let's look at the samples, bearing in mind my analysis from earlier today. Among likely voters in the Ohio sample, the D/R/I is 37/30/30. That's a far cry from the midterm 36/37/28 — but it’s not that far off from 2008's 39/31/30. The question, then, is what kind of turnout should we expect in Ohio --- one that looks more like 2008 or 2010? Before you answer that, remember that the Republicans who won that midterm election in Ohio have struggled to maintain their momentum, although John Kasich appears to be rebounding a bit now.
Let’s look at a couple of other demos in Ohio. Romney actually has a one-point edge over Obama among likely-voter independents, 47/46. In 2008, Obama won them by eight points, 52/44, on his way to winning the state by five. However, Obama wins women by seventeen points while losing men by 1 for a +16 gender gap. In 2008, that was just +11 (+3 men, +8 women). If there’s a difference, it’s in that gender gap rather than independents.
Next, let’s look at Florida, where Obama only has a 4-point lead. The likely-voter D/R/I has a D+1 edge, 33/32/31. That’s right in the ballpark for Florida, which had a 37/34/29 in 2008 and 36/36/29 in 2010. Unfortunately, their link to the cross-tab functions isn’t working so it’s impossible to drill down further than this, but it shows that Romney needs to pick up his game in the Sunshine State, too.
Update: I had a typo in the 2010 exit polling in Ohio; the independent vote was 28%, not 38%.
Wherever you are: VOTE STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN!
Game over.
+7 democrap sample?
yeah right...
Looks like the “war on women” ads are having a major impact on the gullible sex.
Ulsterman report has whitehouse insider saying they all battleground states are all close.. Good debate Romney wins, possibley even PA.
Whatever. The polls showing Romney behind are doing us a FAVOR because we are a stubborn bunch, at least my family is and we will be damned and determined to NOT go quietly.
I ask myself, who do I know in Ohio...? Who do I know in Florida? Who do my friends and family know? I think we should regard these polls as TRUTH and act accordingly. Even if they are skewed,,just think,,,if we are able to overcome the bias,,we have won! If we poo-poo and disregard the gift of information being handed to us, we are inviting disaster. ... We need to act like R/R is behind 10 points and don’t believe anything that says differently. Be stubborn! Be strong! Do NOT get discouraged! I am making calls right now
These people are just too much, so much BS.
I regret the fact I have only 2 fists, b/c I’d like to punch half of this country’s “citizens” in the face.
Voted for Romney/Ryan today. God Bless America!
When was this WaPO poll actually taken ?
How on earth can they put obama so close is beyond me as I have not seen one yard sign , hardly know anyone who will vote for him and even the stickers on cars are about 2 a week .
The fact I see this tells me I have to get out to more people and convince them to not vote for this idiot and that the media is ling to them and you'd be surprised even as a conservative how many have no clue about the issues, fast and furious, don;t know the debt., not meeting world leaders, lying about the attacks, him going to Vegas.
That is just recent, the fact the media is not telling the voters what the facts are is making me and my family to inform more folks and that means more of a dog walk tonight to meet more people and get the conversation on to the election.
I live in FL, Tampa-area...a 60% GOP county.. and I agree.. In 2008, i saw a lot of Obama bumper stickers in my town, and I pretty much knew he was gonna win...
This time around, I see virtually NO Obama stickers...a LOT of anti-Obama stickers, and a smattering of Romney/Ryan stickers.. I think basically , most people arent that enthusiastic about Mitt, but are VERY enthusiastic about voting the commie out. Thats whats going on with these polls. Obama is at his max support right now.
I have recalculated this Washington Post Ohio poll based on 35% R, 35% D, and 30 % I which is going to be the more realistic party ID breakdown on November 6 2012. The result is Obama 48.5%, Romney 47.7%...
I have this “Poll Adjustment Calculator” that can re-calculate the biased media polls with a more realistic party breakdown...
They are having an impact on the single women who always vote democrat in much larger number than they vote Republican. The question is would this group show up in large number on elections day the same they did in 2008? I doubt it very much...
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