Posted on 09/23/2012 5:18:04 PM PDT by Red Steel
Mitt Romney keeps telling Ohioans they are worse off than four years ago — but a majority of you are not buying it.
Six weeks before Election Day, President Barack Obama holds a 51 to 46 percent lead in the state over his Republican challenger, according to the most recent Ohio Newspaper Poll of likely voters.
The poll, taken between Sept. 13 and Tuesday and jointly paid for by the eight largest circulating newspapers in Ohio, including The Repository, was conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati.
The results are similar to those found in the latest national polls. Experts say the numbers are probably a symptom of the battering the Romney campaign has endured in the past several weeks.
“It’s kind of snowballing,” explained Dan Birdsong, a professor of American politics at the University of Dayton.
Romney has absorbed word of internal friction within the campaign; questions about his foreign policy following comments in the wake of violence in Egypt and Libya; and the ‘47 percent’ video.
Clearly, pollsters say, the economy is a huge issue for voters. Dissecting poll results, Romney leads in three subgroups — age 65 and older, males and whites. Obama boasts giant margins among those ages 18 to 29, women, blacks and voters with only a high school diploma or less.
LOCAL SUPPORT
Both campaigns plan to bounce through Ohio this week, trying to gain a stranglehold on the state’s 18 electoral votes.
Romney and running mate Paul Ryan embark on a five-city, three-day bus tour, beginning on Monday. The trip includes a stop in Cleveland on Wednesday — on the same day that Obama visits Kent.
Such campaign swings typically help solidify the faithful.
People such as William Disman of Alliance, who voted for Obama in 2008. Disman said the president deserves four more years. The 66-year-old retiree said Obama has been hamstrung by partisan politics in Washington D.C.
“If he can get a Democratic congress, he’d be able to get a lot more done,” Disman said .
Lisa Atkins of Louisville, a divorced former stay-at-home mom who just entered the workforce, isn’t about to leave the Romney camp. In fact, she’d vote for anyone but Obama. She said she relates to Romney on moral issues.
“His (respect for) Christian values is one of the biggest things; this country was founded on God,” she said.
Both campaigns likely will ramp up efforts to influence independent voters, as well. According to the poll, these kind of voters appear less interested in the race and less likely to turn out for the Nov. 6 election. Next
OPTIMISTIC OHIOANS
Romney has vowed to approve the Keystone Pipeline, slice government bureaucracy, replace the Affordable Care Act health care law, introduce tax cuts and cut the spending deficit. His message to voters across the nation has been: The U.S. is worse off than when Obama took office.
That stance isn’t resonating in Ohio, though, according to the poll. It revealed 41 percent of Ohioans believe they are about the same as in 2008, and 23 percent feel they are better off than four years ago.
“That is a bad strategy in Ohio,” explained William Cunion, a University of Mount Union political science professor.
At the same time Romney laments economic conditions in Ohio, voters are peppered with signs of a turnaround. The state’s unemployment rate of 7.2 percent is a full point below the national average, and Gov. John Kasich recently touted the creation of 122,000 jobs within the state.
There are multiple polls like this showing there are virtually no voters that identify themselves as being independents when asked...first time I’ve ever seen this. If anything I would say the trend of people identifying as “independent” would be on the increase...but certainly not a decrease of this magnitude.
Ok so then let’s say the population in my state is 10 percent black but in my 1,000 random calls I only connected with 75 black voters. Do I then go back and give those 7.5 percent of black voters a 10 percent weighting in my poll?
Fine.....whatever blows your skirt up. And no offense, but I’m not buying your stats, either. I think the people who make this Country work, regardless of color, have had it with Obummer “up to here!”
I’m not sure how to say this without sounding racist, but I think the answers you get to your questions depends on what kind of neighborhood you ASK them in.
One thing I am confident about; that Obummer is not going to get a LARGER percentage of black votes than in 2008. And I don’t think he’ll get as large a percentage this time. Ditto with Jews, Hispanics, Women, you name the group. Just hide and watch. It’s going to be like Reagan over Carter.
Mr. Disman: He had not only a Democratic Congress, but a supermajority part of the time to get everything he wanted passed. His policies are not causing damage to the country because they were blocked - but because they were passed...with "continuing resolutions" rather than new budgets they are indeed being passed multiple over even with GOP control of the House.
I agree with you, Red Steel, but this stuff still makes me a bit nervous.
I’m not buying any poll.
You make a good point: We know some things about the population; e.g., how many people are black. BUT ... the percentage of blacks who vote may not be the same thing as the percentage of blacks in the population. The possible difference is called turnout.
Black people actually vote pretty regularly nowadays. I’d say more uncertain than black vote is hispanic vote, and more uncertain then either of these is the youth vote.
And, if you assume these demographics vote with the same frequency as they did in 2008, a monster year for turnout, you wind up with a very Democrat-looking sample.
A better way to do this is to first weight the sample by demographics and second to tease out the likely voters from the sample. Think of the first step as using demographic weights to insure that you have a sample that is representative of the population, and the second step as allowing the likelihood of voting to be forecast, in addition to the forecast of how those who vote, vote.
Going the opposite way, first teasing out the likely voters and then weighting the sample by demographics and possibly also partisan affiliation so the sample of likely voters “looks like” the voters who showed up in 2008, will have the result of predicting that whoever won in 2008 will also win in 2012 as well.
What were they pulling on and who pulled it?
Are there any “Major” Newspapers in Ohio that aren’t State-Run-Media echos? I don’t read those fishwrappers, that basically are filled with NY Times editorials, or Liberal bylines.
No you keep polling until you get the number of respondents that fit your weighted sample. In your case you would keep making calls until you got 10 self identified blacks.
Here is the other thing about polls. It assumes people are telling the truth. Maybe they are, maybe they are not.
Almost no Obama yard signs or bumper stickers here in SW Ohio. I don’t know what that means except a total lack of enthusiasm. Not many Romney signs either to tell the truth.
Since those are all taxes imposed by the States, Congress doesn't have any say in their imposition. Seems like many folks either don't pay attention to, or understand, this distinction.
I agree with you on MN, it violates my rule, I don’t think i will swing romney even though it was slightly under 55% in 2008.
Wisconsin though was slightly over 55% in 08 and Romney will likely win that one.
Basically end of the day, this race isn’t a race at all.. I am not someone who easily dismisses polling, but it is beyond clear that for whatever reason, design, or not, the polls are just not effectively picking up what is going on on the ground fully.
Yes many of the polls are so ridiculously weighted D that they need to be laughed out of the room.. Others are not so bad, but still do not accurately reflect the race in their overall numbers.
What is interesting is that the polling is picking up in the internals trends, very important ones, but the end numbers are not fully reflecting what the internal analysis states..
I truly think this entire election is bread and circuses. I think Obama already knows he’s lost and has already lined up his retirement.. the entire thing is just for show.
Your thought on this are interesting. I heard on the other day, maybe on radio, maybe on Hannity, but someplace in the media someone claim that Obama has historically under performed the pre-election polls and the exit polls.
Unfortunately, I either did not catch or do not remember who it was. Still if true, that may explain some of the difference between the internals and the presidential preferences you mention.
My guess is that the poll was taken by university students who talked with university professors and other students. 846 is not a very large sampling, particularly if you are seeking a true cross-section (sampling) of the entire voting population OUTSIDE of the university. Everyone knows how radical the professors are and have brainwashed the students. What do we expect such a poll to tell us?
Newspapers, colleges, universities are all infested with communists, and are NOT credible sources...
Ohhhh...it’s in the Canton SUPOSITORY....nuff said.
From the link:
The poll also unearthed few undecided voters and few true independents -- those not leaning toward one party or the other. Of the randomly selected participants, 48 percent said they were Democrats, 42 percent Republicans and 10 percent independent. Rademacher said the margin between Democratic and Republican respondents is typically between 5 points either way.
This seems to say that if an independent claims to lean either R or D, then they are counted as R or D.
I once registered Democrat because I had a relative I wanted to vote for, yes they were democrat...you can't choose your family..., and the poll monitor for the Dimrats tried to get me to declare my loyalty to the democratic party....I told her I will not sign any document for any party..... I started to complain and ask if what she was requesting was legal then I looked at the poll worker and asked her the same question..... then I asked the big question loud enough for the whole room to hear...."Are YOU trying to deny me my constitutional right to vote????"
The room went silent and the Dimrat monitor backed away from her demand that I pledge my allegence to them. I left that place so mad I registered a complaint with the secretary of state and told them the location were I voted that had this woman doing this......btw, I also told the Dimrat Monitor the only pledge I give willingly is to the Flag of the United States of America.
Our last IL St Sen GOP leader says “A tax is a tax is a tax”. Gas tax is federal. SS, medicare are federal income taxes. Local tax increases are primarily to raise matching funds in order to get the Federal funds. But bottom line, the voters don’t care. a tax is a tax is a tax. The voters understand this. Many GOP and conservative voices somehow think that some taxes are not taxes.
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