I agree with you on MN, it violates my rule, I don’t think i will swing romney even though it was slightly under 55% in 2008.
Wisconsin though was slightly over 55% in 08 and Romney will likely win that one.
Basically end of the day, this race isn’t a race at all.. I am not someone who easily dismisses polling, but it is beyond clear that for whatever reason, design, or not, the polls are just not effectively picking up what is going on on the ground fully.
Yes many of the polls are so ridiculously weighted D that they need to be laughed out of the room.. Others are not so bad, but still do not accurately reflect the race in their overall numbers.
What is interesting is that the polling is picking up in the internals trends, very important ones, but the end numbers are not fully reflecting what the internal analysis states..
I truly think this entire election is bread and circuses. I think Obama already knows he’s lost and has already lined up his retirement.. the entire thing is just for show.
Your thought on this are interesting. I heard on the other day, maybe on radio, maybe on Hannity, but someplace in the media someone claim that Obama has historically under performed the pre-election polls and the exit polls.
Unfortunately, I either did not catch or do not remember who it was. Still if true, that may explain some of the difference between the internals and the presidential preferences you mention.