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NBC/WSJ: 0bama 50% Romney 45% (42% D / 37% R / 16% I)
NBS/WSJ ^ | 9-18-12 | NBC/WSJ

Posted on 09/18/2012 5:35:23 PM PDT by GR_Jr.

Click link for internals of the poll.

(Excerpt) Read more at msnbcmedia.msn.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election2012
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To: jwalsh07

Oversampled Rats, undersampled independents.

Same old story.

Looks like about a 10% Romney victory from this poll’s internals!


41 posted on 09/18/2012 6:05:40 PM PDT by diamond6 (Freerepublic.com and Hillbuzz.org are my go to sites for conservative news.)
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To: diamond6

I doubt it. They are using 2008 as a model and ignoring 2010 but they assign indepents based on lean. Virginia will be close, either way.


42 posted on 09/18/2012 6:11:45 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (.)
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To: GR_Jr.

Excellent. Reverse engineer those numbers knowing that there are lots fewer Ds and many more Is that will break Romney, and you’ve got a friggin landslide.


43 posted on 09/18/2012 6:14:53 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie (You didn't build that. The private sector is doing fine. We tried our plan and it worked.)
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To: Uncle Miltie
Excellent. Reverse engineer those numbers knowing that there are lots fewer Ds and many more Is that will break Romney, and you’ve got a friggin landslide.

Maybe. I would throw a cautionary note into the analysis here - Romney's own pollsters think the Dem advantage on party ID will be about 3 points. It was 8 points in 2008 and even or R +1 in 2010, so 3 points seems about right.

Adjusting this poll based on that assumption shows a tight race.

44 posted on 09/18/2012 6:27:11 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (Speak Up, Mitt!)
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To: A CA Guy

For four years Obama has been customizing his message just to run against Romney. That is one of the reasons Obama has gone the class warfare route. Bain was not allowed to be discussed by republicans during the primaries, it was a no-no, needed to protect the assumptive nominee, Romney . If people couldn’t see that this was going to be between those that eat steak and those that eat hamburger, they are stupid. Romney is sticking the hot dog right in people’s faces with these thoughtless comments.


45 posted on 09/18/2012 6:28:10 PM PDT by Toespi
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To: Toespi
1. Those comments were four months old.

2. Romney's core strategy should be to make this election about economic reality, not the candidates.

Item #2 is important. I'd venture to guess that even Obama's most ardent supporters are worse off today than they were four years ago. Romney's advantage in the general election is the same advantage he had in the GOP primaries: He looks presidential.

46 posted on 09/18/2012 6:33:16 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: Alberta's Child

He may “look” presidential, but I sure as hell hope his brain catches up with his looks, real soon.


47 posted on 09/18/2012 6:42:43 PM PDT by Toespi
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To: Toespi
All politics aside, he's probably one of the 2-3 most capable, competent men ever to run for office as the nation's chief executive. Whether that's enough to win is a different story, but don't ever sell that guy short.

Personally, I think if someone that capable loses to a jug-eared nitwit who comes across as mildly retarded whenever he speaks without a teleprompter, then at least we can all rest easy and stop taking anything in this country seriously anymore. As for me, I'll likely be checking out of here and pursuing my business interests elsewhere if that happens.

48 posted on 09/18/2012 6:49:29 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: Toespi

Open primaries, are why Democrats chose the Republican nominee.


49 posted on 09/18/2012 7:52:12 PM PDT by ROTB (Live holy, forgive all & pray in Jesus' name. Trust He is willing & able & eager to ANSWER BIG!)
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To: snarkytart; All

this is better than a poll - not scewed...uses same formula every year - been right on all last 8 presidents

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/analysis-election-factors-points-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says


50 posted on 09/18/2012 8:16:50 PM PDT by maine-iac7 (Christian is as Christian does....)
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To: MestaMachine; vette6387; freekitty; flat; gonzo; unkus; sheik yerbouty; Forty-Niner; ...

Joseph Goebbel’s is taking their polls. They must have dug him up for Barry, Pelosi, and Reid.


51 posted on 09/18/2012 9:17:16 PM PDT by ExTexasRedhead
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To: ExTexasRedhead

I believe that.


52 posted on 09/18/2012 10:40:23 PM PDT by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: GR_Jr.
This is excellent news since the REAL voter break down is 37.6% Republican, 33.3% Democrat and 30% Independent.
As per Carville poll Romney leads Independents by 15 and CNN has it at 14 (54/40).
CNN also has Republican enthusiasm 6 points higher than Dems enthusiasm.
Right now Obama is NOT winning any group he lost in 2008; not doing better with any group he did win ( including Jews, women, young, Blacks and Hispanics) nor is he closing with veterans which he lost last time and will lose even bigger this time.
53 posted on 09/19/2012 5:03:32 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: GR_Jr.

More liberals squeaking. Yawn.


54 posted on 09/19/2012 6:54:25 AM PDT by sergeantdave (The FBI has declared war on the Marine Corps)
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To: ExTexasRedhead
Joseph Goebbel’s is taking their polls. They must have dug him up for Barry, Pelosi, and Reid.

The people who believe these polls are more than likely groupies to the commies and corrupt media.

There are many democrats who consider themselves democrats for life and who would support this administration if Goebbbels replaced Biden - nothing will change their mentality.

55 posted on 09/19/2012 11:05:15 AM PDT by MamaDearest
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