I posted this thread as humor, so I'm laughing. I got a good laugh from the term "Blivet Poll", I find it quite amusing.
Whining? LOL!
Posted on 09/13/2012 3:24:18 PM PDT by smoothsailing
September 13, 2012
Now, I get tired of saying this but the electorate is not going to be more Democrat this November than it was in 2008. And, the Democrats are certainly not going to increase their share of the electorate by 50%. This is just fantasy. But, its a fantasy with a very specific purpose.
If these polls were weighted to reflect realistic assumptions about the electorate in November, Obama's lead would not only evaporate, but Romney would probably post a modest lead. Even in heavily-skewed polls like this one, Romney leads Obama on who can better handle the economy. Only be massively over-sampling Democrats can Romney's advantage on this be partially obscured.
Since the end of the DNC convention and the dismal August jobs report, the media have been rushing to declare Obama the certain winner of the race. Joe Weisenthal at TheBusinessInsider even hilariously declared that the "election is over." It is a conscious effort to deflate GOP voters and drive down their turnout. It could also be a bit of self-medication. Maybe they soothe themselves by thinking if they just say "obama is winning" enough times it will prove to be so. ....
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
I was called yesterday by a Democrat polling outfit in Minnesota. First time I’ve ever been polled.
It was 5 questions and took less than a minute.
I didn’t look at FL or OH, but VA had way, way low R ratio compared to 2008. So the gap was still bigger even if D ratio was lower.
My in-laws are from the Iron-Range of Minnesota, always vote Democrat.
About, 1 1/2 years ago, they called my wife (registered Republican) and said how deeply disappointed they were in Obama.
Obviously, they aren’t the only ones.
Longbow
Since you want to so believe the polls, explain to us how different polls like this one and Rassumussen can have both Romney and Obama winning by 4-5 points on the same day?
Per Rasmussen,
Right now, 37.6% self identify as GOP, while 33.3% self identify as Dem...So, it turns out, more people are identifying as Republican
....and voter turnout in 2010 was higher for GOP than Dem....meaning Republicans are more likely to vote, based on the most recent election.
A gander at Nov 2008 shows 33.8% GOP and 41.4% Dem....a 7.6% spread...and Barry won by 7.2%.
A look at Nov 2004 shows 37.1% GOP and 38.6% Dem...and Bush still won.
Truth be told, an honest poll would oversample Republicans by a couple of points, if history and accuracy were taken into account.
I don’t think people are ‘whining’ about the polls. Rather, they recognize a) the bias and b) the demoralizing affect it can have (I have witnessed that on this board). To point out this media malpractice is no different than pointing out outher media flaws and bias. Now that the internet can be used to circumvent the bias and lies of the media, we should use it for just that purpose...and ‘whine’ about the bias in every bad poll.
As an aside, if Romney ends up winning this thing, we will be subjected to countless ‘he cheated’ stories (I still hear them from 2004), because nobody on the left will believe or understand how the messiah lost a 7 point lead.
I did not have the pleasure of watching the Fox pollster explain methodology. Their latest poll shows an Obama lead of 5%, but oversamples democrats by 8%. Again, looking at how people self identify now, along with how accurate a predictor that data was in 2008, all I can conclude is that the Fox poll is completely bogus. It oversamples democrats by more than the 7.6% hopium spread! And of course it doesn’t even come close to today’s party identifications. Maybe I can find a youtube video of the Fox explaination...because their methodology makes absolutely no sense to me.
Sorry Longbow but you know nothing about how polling works yet you continually lecture those of us who DO understand polling.
Stop clinging to your opinion and listen.
Polling can be skewed like any other statistical measurement. If you poll 35 Democrats 35 Republicans and 30 Independents you will get one result. IF you poll 40 Democrats, 25 Republicans and 35 Independents you get a much different result.
That is how you get polls like this one that shows Obama ahead by 5, and polls like Rassussen that show Romney up 4 on the same day.
Right now, the party identification is showing either a 2 to 3 point Democrat edge, or a slight edge for Rs in self identification. So their is NO rational way to justify over sampling Democrats 11 points, as this poll does, UNLESS you want to generate a certain outcome.
So instead of clinging to your ignorance try actually LEARNING something about polling from those of us who understand it.
That is the interesting thing about MN polling right now, they show Romney losing Everywhere in MN but the Iron Range. That is weird because outside the Twin Cities the Iron range area is historically the most reliably Democrat area in MN
RCP incorporates outlyers in their average so they are easily manipulated.
They also include OLD polls in their average so it is influnced skewed by old pols and becomes a lagging indicator.
Personally I don’t bother with RCP averages. They are as honest and internet voting.
Johnnie look, the polls are pretty accurate. Just get over it. It is what it is. We get this disputing polls stuff before virtually every election, and in the end the polls turn out to be quite accurate. The RCP average was nearly dead on the last 2 presidential election cycles (within 1 point). Even on the Walker recall, the RCP Average was within .1%.
Every other poll included in the RCP Average has Obama ahead. Rasmussen has Romney 1 ahead. I go with the full RCP average, Obama up 3.3% currently, because it’s proven itself to be highly accurate and helps flatten out outliers.
I remember people refusing to believe the polls when they showed O’Donnell was going to get crushed by about 17 points. We were treated with endless posts about how the polls were wrong. O’Donnell lost by 17 points. Remember 2008? The polls showed Obama was going to win by around 7 or 8 points and we had countless posts here claiming the polls were wrong? Yeah, Obama won by 7.3%. The list goes on and on. The polls are fairly accurate, especially if you use the RCP average to flatten out the outliers.
Aug 37.6% rep, 33.3% dem, 29.2% ind.
HAHAHA Johnnie. You don't anything. You are one of the most ignorant posters here. You're the person who recently tried to argue the RCP average wasn't accurate because it didn't predict the Walker recall results. Then I showed you it predicted it within .1% and you just kinda vanished off the thread.
“The reason virtually ALL the polls have a large Democratic skew is because a lot more people identify themselves as Democrats now.”
Didn’t put this in quotations in my last post. Sorry!
Longbow
I gave you the facts and your response was to start screaming in hysteria.
Put your emotions on hold and LEARN something. Your instance on clinging to your emotional opinions and ignoring the facts like that just embarrasses you.
Yes, Rasmussen has one good result for us. Unfortunately, virtually every other poll is showing that this election cycle more people self identify as Democrats. That does not mean they intend to vote Democrat, it just means in almost every poll more people are responding that they are self identified Democrats. If you want to believe that there is a conspiracy among EVERY other pollster (including Fox News’ pollsters) but Rasmussen to generate this result, well, go ahead. Unfortunately, I don’t buy that. Either way, that is why the RCP Average is good. It includes enough polls to even out the outliers.
I posted this thread as humor, so I'm laughing. I got a good laugh from the term "Blivet Poll", I find it quite amusing.
Whining? LOL!
“That is weird because outside the Twin Cities the Iron range area is historically the most reliably Democrat area in MN”
I believe what is happening is we are seeing the Conservative Democrat of yore coming back to the surface.
I agree with you that when all polls show a tie or your candidate behind, your candidate is most likely behind.
BUT I will say polls this far out are not as accurate as those two to one week before the election.
People...Walker was ahead in all polls a few days before the recall. I don’t see why some of you keep using this as an example of how the polls didn’t get it.
Now 2010, the polls were off, but lets be honest. Polling during a mid term is more tricky.
How do you reconcile having Obama up 5 in one poll and Romney up 4 in another on the same day?
This is what is so frustrating about those Freepers who want to define reality by what they read in a poll. Polls are some of the most easily manipulated data around.
Averaging the polling this far out does not give you a good sense of the race since it equally weights a good reliable likely voter poll like Rasmussen with an any adult who answers the phone poll junk Media poll like CNN/NBC/ABC etc.
Anyone who buys into the thrown-together-mess of RCP polls & takes +11 dem poll is not serious.....so don’t let this poster trouble you. Waste of time.
I don't know why I beat my head against this particular wall every 2 years. Some people just have to have the drama of the Yo-Yo polling effect "We are up, we are down, we are up, we are down"
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