Per Rasmussen,
Right now, 37.6% self identify as GOP, while 33.3% self identify as Dem...So, it turns out, more people are identifying as Republican
....and voter turnout in 2010 was higher for GOP than Dem....meaning Republicans are more likely to vote, based on the most recent election.
A gander at Nov 2008 shows 33.8% GOP and 41.4% Dem....a 7.6% spread...and Barry won by 7.2%.
A look at Nov 2004 shows 37.1% GOP and 38.6% Dem...and Bush still won.
Truth be told, an honest poll would oversample Republicans by a couple of points, if history and accuracy were taken into account.
I don’t think people are ‘whining’ about the polls. Rather, they recognize a) the bias and b) the demoralizing affect it can have (I have witnessed that on this board). To point out this media malpractice is no different than pointing out outher media flaws and bias. Now that the internet can be used to circumvent the bias and lies of the media, we should use it for just that purpose...and ‘whine’ about the bias in every bad poll.
As an aside, if Romney ends up winning this thing, we will be subjected to countless ‘he cheated’ stories (I still hear them from 2004), because nobody on the left will believe or understand how the messiah lost a 7 point lead.
I did not have the pleasure of watching the Fox pollster explain methodology. Their latest poll shows an Obama lead of 5%, but oversamples democrats by 8%. Again, looking at how people self identify now, along with how accurate a predictor that data was in 2008, all I can conclude is that the Fox poll is completely bogus. It oversamples democrats by more than the 7.6% hopium spread! And of course it doesn’t even come close to today’s party identifications. Maybe I can find a youtube video of the Fox explaination...because their methodology makes absolutely no sense to me.
Yes, Rasmussen has one good result for us. Unfortunately, virtually every other poll is showing that this election cycle more people self identify as Democrats. That does not mean they intend to vote Democrat, it just means in almost every poll more people are responding that they are self identified Democrats. If you want to believe that there is a conspiracy among EVERY other pollster (including Fox News’ pollsters) but Rasmussen to generate this result, well, go ahead. Unfortunately, I don’t buy that. Either way, that is why the RCP Average is good. It includes enough polls to even out the outliers.
what is party affiliation in battlegrounds?to keep Obama they might drum pu a good turnout for him and we at least need the house and Senate. if O get stays he will be appointing more Supremes.