I agree with you that when all polls show a tie or your candidate behind, your candidate is most likely behind.
BUT I will say polls this far out are not as accurate as those two to one week before the election.
People...Walker was ahead in all polls a few days before the recall. I don’t see why some of you keep using this as an example of how the polls didn’t get it.
Now 2010, the polls were off, but lets be honest. Polling during a mid term is more tricky.
How do you reconcile having Obama up 5 in one poll and Romney up 4 in another on the same day?
This is what is so frustrating about those Freepers who want to define reality by what they read in a poll. Polls are some of the most easily manipulated data around.
Averaging the polling this far out does not give you a good sense of the race since it equally weights a good reliable likely voter poll like Rasmussen with an any adult who answers the phone poll junk Media poll like CNN/NBC/ABC etc.