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Gallup Poll: Obama 49 Romney 45
Gallup ^ | 09/08/2012 | Staff

Posted on 09/08/2012 11:34:56 AM PDT by nhwingut

These are the results when registered voters are asked: "Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?"

(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; gallup; obama; riggedpolls; romney
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To: EnquiringMind
I have heard many times that if the incumbent isn’t at 50%, he’ll never win. 50% of what? Favorability? 50% job approval? 50% Obama vs. 48% Romney of whatever? What is that 50% rule of thumb?

50% voter preference. The theory being that an incumbent is already known to the voters and that the so-called "undecideds" are withholding their vote because a.) they are less than satisfied with the incumbert and are b.) actively considering the challenger.

As a consequence, the vast nmajority (2/3 or more) of "undecideds" will break toward the challenger once they are forced into making a decision.

Thus, an incumbent who cannot muster a 50% share of voter preference is unlikely to ever reach that level -- and will likely lose.

141 posted on 09/08/2012 1:48:00 PM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: entropy12

your post 116 is right on the money.. These people will vote for Zero even if they are eating from dumpsters..Romney wont win.. Zero has his followers convinced that the republicans are the enemy that caused all this..


142 posted on 09/08/2012 1:48:59 PM PDT by chicken head
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To: nhwingut

If I remember correctly, Isn’t Gallup under investigation by Obama’s DoJ... any correlation here?


143 posted on 09/08/2012 1:55:38 PM PDT by dps.inspect (rage against the Obama machine...)
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To: nhwingut

And besides, the media needs a horse race right up till election day, to keep the masses hyped and watching commercial news outlets...


144 posted on 09/08/2012 1:57:08 PM PDT by dps.inspect (rage against the Obama machine...)
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To: nhwingut

He would be down 20 if he were white...


145 posted on 09/08/2012 1:58:10 PM PDT by dps.inspect (rage against the Obama machine...)
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To: Principled

I agree.

People need to remember that Dukakis had a 17 POINT LEAD in the Gallup poll after the 1988 Dem convention. And our candidate that year was George Bush I, not a strong candidate. Sort of a Romney-esque guy.

Just google “Dukakis 17 point lead” if people don’t believe this.


146 posted on 09/08/2012 1:59:56 PM PDT by SteveAustin
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To: scbison
Is Registered or likely voter poll?M

Really doesn't matter. Gallup is just as screwed up and any other poll.

147 posted on 09/08/2012 2:02:49 PM PDT by Logical me
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To: Soul of the South
6) The entitlement class has grown during the recession. Many people in their 50’s, the natural conservative constituency, have lost jobs in this recession and cannot find comparable replacements or jobs at all. They are now dependents of the state and will vote accordingly for self survival.

In itself, that point could be the game-changer. The welfare class is less of a political threat than you might think because of their entitlement mentality. They're convinced they have the right to welfare while doing nothing in exchange. That "nothing" includes getting off the couch and voting Democrat.

That entitlement mentality is the likely cause of the low turnout rates in the welfare culture. They're so sure they're entitled, many of them don't vote their interest because they see no need to.

On the other hand, a guy in his 50s who needs the assistance is more likely to pull the lever for the (D) to show he's not an ingrate. Believe it or not, your Republic may be saved by entitled ingrates who get the idea that voting Dem in exchange for their benefits is beneath them

148 posted on 09/08/2012 2:10:06 PM PDT by danielmryan
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To: BlessingsofLiberty

Speaking of polls, didn’t the polls the day before the Wisconsin recall election have Scott Walker defeating the recall forces by 1 point? After the vote, we all saw that Walker actually defeated the recall by 7 points.


149 posted on 09/08/2012 2:15:03 PM PDT by july4thfreedomfoundation (If people don't have to show an ID to vote, why do they have to show one to purchase a firearm?.)
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To: SnakeDoctor

In 2008, Obama won the independents by 8 points.

If Romney is really 15 points ahead with independents at this time, and maintains that margin through November 6th, then Romney is the 45th president of these United States.


150 posted on 09/08/2012 2:18:20 PM PDT by july4thfreedomfoundation (If people don't have to show an ID to vote, why do they have to show one to purchase a firearm?.)
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To: AC86UT89

I’m hoping the “soft-money” PACs are going to hit Obama hard at some point. The GOP-e / Romney ads.....I hope they do likewise at some point, but I’ll believe it when it actually happens. The conservative PACs are not going to portray Obama as a “nice guy.”


151 posted on 09/08/2012 2:31:20 PM PDT by july4thfreedomfoundation (If people don't have to show an ID to vote, why do they have to show one to purchase a firearm?.)
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To: nhwingut
But at this point, in this economy, Obama should be down 20 in any poll - adults, registered or likely.

The reason Obama's even in this race is because half the country gets some form of government welfare check on a weekly/bi-weekly/monthly basis.

Yep, Government bribing people with other people's money to keep re-electing the same assholes that caused this mess. Brilliant.

152 posted on 09/08/2012 2:33:34 PM PDT by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: JimSEA

‘Middle class entitlements’ should be an abhorrent oxymoron but it’s fallen into common usage even by so-called conservatives.


153 posted on 09/08/2012 2:34:32 PM PDT by relictele
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To: nhwingut

Why do you say that?

This is America, the country that elected Obama, the country that is more balkanized than the Balkans, that invited death to live with it in the form of Islam and sucks up to it, that slaughters its future generation and that works relentlessly to erase every visible and invisible trace of God in its society.

What do you expect, miracles?


154 posted on 09/08/2012 2:37:48 PM PDT by 353FMG (The US Constitution is only as good as those who enforce it.)
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To: Wally_Kalbacken

I’d like to think Romney does too, but who knows? This is turning out how I thought it would. Romney and his PACs destroyed his Republican primary challengers with gusto, but when it comes to going after Obama, mostly crickets. This is what happens when you run a “moderate”.


155 posted on 09/08/2012 2:50:19 PM PDT by Pinkbell
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To: Wally_Kalbacken

That B.S. fest energized some more of the gutter end of the Democrat spectrum.

The other side of the Democrat spectrum may be still waiting for a reason to leave. It is traditional for modern Republicans to pack a lot of campaigning into a handful of weeks. Mitt does not saturate all states with the same ad. His publicity people have a bit more discernment than that.


156 posted on 09/08/2012 2:55:44 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (let me ABOs run loose, lew (or is that lou?))
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To: snarkytart

People are making excuses, but I’m not buying them. Four years ago on FR, I tried to reassure myself with the excuses over the poll numbers. Not this year. All the polls are showing Obama with a lead.

Granted, he has a convention bounce, but why? Why after the job he has done? I’m a pessimist, and I’m willing to expect the worst, Obama will be reelected.

At this point, we can only hope that the Romney campaign turns up the heat and for Romney and Ryan (shouldn’t be hard for him against Biden) to perform well in the upcoming debates.


157 posted on 09/08/2012 2:56:59 PM PDT by Pinkbell
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To: nhwingut

The first meaningful poll should be next Thursday or perhaps the week after Thursday. The immediate polls after the conventions are meaningless.


158 posted on 09/08/2012 2:57:20 PM PDT by buffaloguy
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To: nhwingut

Rasmussen has Romney at 46 and The O-imposter at 45 in his daily tracking poll for 11 swing states. Let’s not over- react to Gallup’s lying poll.


159 posted on 09/08/2012 3:03:26 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: montag813

“Not surprising. The DNC was masterful and aggressive compared to the weak, neutered, Obama-is-a-nice-guy-whose-policies-are-bad RNC. And Obama got a BIG assist from the media, who purposely distracted from the RNC with Issac, gave Obama a pass after Romney beat him to Louisiana, and refused to even cover the ugly God/Jerusalem chaos at the DNC.”

All true.

The Democrats are playing dirty, brass knuckles, and we are not exposing all of Obama’s failures strongly enough to get it through the media.

The key that Romney team fails to grasp but Newt has is that if you say something strongly enough, the media will consider it controversial and run with it. For example, the Clint Eastwood speech. Turns out he was sort of ad libbing - from the heart. The media didnt like it so they played it up... but it worked.

Ryan’s speech was effective so the media goes in overdrive to rebut it. Whereas for example, Christie didnt have a ‘sock it to them’ speech like Clinton. Net result - ignored, zero impact.

If you want impact, you have to hit ‘em hard. Give ‘em hell.

Obama is a very bad President, and he’s been running a desperate and dishonest campaign. Yet despite the desperation and dishonesty, they are now running ahead, slightly.

Romney still has to work to win this thing.


160 posted on 09/08/2012 3:10:33 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole AmericaÂ’s promise!)
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