Green Job?
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Posted on 08/22/2012 6:01:28 PM PDT by nhwingut
Three reasons why: Economy, economy, economy.
Supposedly, the model’s been accurate to within 20 or so electoral votes in every election since 1980. Dude?
Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes. The political scientists discuss their findings here.
Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida…
Bickers said much of the polling thus far means relatively little, with much of the electorate still not focused on the race. The academics said their model focuses on the preeminent issue of the economy. Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.
I’m highly skeptical that Romney’s going to come back to take Pennsylvania, even though O’s lead there right now isn’t prohibitive. But like the man says, the model’s usually off by 20 or so EVs. Number of electoral votes Pennsylvania has this year: 20. Golden.
Meanwhile, in the poll of polls…
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
From the article:
Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.
No, it isn’t possible. That would imply/require a level of intelligence of the population FAR above the actual level.
Tis a mere bagatelle. Fun, but nothing to bet the house on.
NO relaxing, NO complacency. Obama OUT, thrashed utterly, shown that his socialist policies are not wanted
I agree with you. The fight has to be done over every city council seat, every county council seat, every state seat, every Congressional seat.
Wherever there is an electoral seat up, it has to be assumed that the country is at stake.
I agree with you.
I agree. No major party has ever run a presidential candidate with so little experience. If he’s not black, it’s a joke.
But voters are living this experience in their own lives. In the workplace or at school, they are told they have to select the black, Hispanic, disabled or mentally ill candidate for the sake of “diversity.”. The selectee may then be held to a lower standard because a manager will be accused of discrimination if they try to correct poor behavior or performance. Others who are not so protected have to pick up the slack.
Voters see the Department of Justice refusing to prosecute civil rights violations by blacks or enforce the immigration laws against Hispanics.
Thus, I would argue that the overall voting population is Conditioned against holding a minority president to the same standards as these models held past, white incumbents. Whether because the voters are minorities who wish to retain these “gains,” or whites who fear being labeled as bigots.
We also have to keep in mind the bigger picture -- shock the Democrats into realizing that the pro-gay, pro-babykilling, pro-spend other people's money tactics won't work any more.
Similar economic models in summer 2000 showed Gore taking the White House in a walkover with 55% of the popular vote.
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Hey, *we* are the infidels, remember? But I understand your meaning. And I actually do know some people, who know some people. We're working on it... ;-)
Utilities and mining are with Romney.
My wife is a teacher, and she’s continually bombarded with campaign trash from her union about supporting Obama.
There is still no right to work law in Ohio, and even if they opt out of the union, they can be assessed a fee for the benefits they receive from collective bargaining.
It’s totally corrupt.
Wisconsin projected to be in Romney column in November
FReep Mail e if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.
Thank God for the Academic Model. As far as the polling part: Were the polls taken BEFORE Todd Akin opened his ignorant mouth?
Don’t probe too deeply on this paudio.... just enjoy it. We don’t get a whole lot of good news these days. LOL...
Not to discredit your dream, but for Romney to win with 74.42 percent of the vote, Obama would have to have a brain aneurysm and be in a coma.
Geesh! Couldn’t you guys just let us have a few minutes of enjoying the possibility of some good news before you had to go and put us in a state of depression? We don’t get good news too often and then you two guys log on to Free Republic.
LOL...... I’m not pissed or anything; I’m basically messin’ with you guys.
a lot of people voted for him in 2008 because of novelty, racial solidarity, and LOTS of white guilt.
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That will NOT be the case this time. Every person I know who was foolish enough to vote for Obama last time out of emotions say they will NOT make that mistake again. They feel deceived and betrayed. As far as the Blacks: The new and the novelty is gone. They’ve had their Black Prez and he has not produced for the brothas like they thought he would. He will still get 95% of the Black vote, but there will not be as many Black votes this time. They will NOT clear out the jail houses, crack houses and HO houses for Obama this go ‘round. Trust me on that.
my biggest fear is of complacence.
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No fear Cronos. The anti-Obama crowd cannot wait to get to the polls. They are chomping at the bit. The Dem base is much less enthusiastic according to polls. There is a big “enthusiasm gap” this year and it favors the Pubbies.
The question I would have is do they run this model once during the election season or multiple times? In other words, have they predicted every presidential winner since 1980 by mid-August? Or did they make the winning prediciton in November? Because if it’s the later then the predicion at this time is interesting, but for all practical purposes useless.
You’re right... darn forum such as FR sometimes just brings out my zealous side. ... LOL
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