Posted on 08/22/2012 6:01:28 PM PDT by nhwingut
Three reasons why: Economy, economy, economy.
Supposedly, the model’s been accurate to within 20 or so electoral votes in every election since 1980. Dude?
Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes. The political scientists discuss their findings here.
Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida…
Bickers said much of the polling thus far means relatively little, with much of the electorate still not focused on the race. The academics said their model focuses on the preeminent issue of the economy. Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.
I’m highly skeptical that Romney’s going to come back to take Pennsylvania, even though O’s lead there right now isn’t prohibitive. But like the man says, the model’s usually off by 20 or so EVs. Number of electoral votes Pennsylvania has this year: 20. Golden.
Meanwhile, in the poll of polls…
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
So I have to tell someone....
Yesterday I was at San Francisco General Hospital (you’ve got to hope you don’t end up there) and we were trying to check someone out. Well, in the hall there was a confrontation with a black guy with dreadlocks in a wheelchair and a TV in his lap and his friend (or whatever) who was a plump black girl with major attitude. She told a cop standing there that he couldn’t touch her - apparently the cop had asked if she was on probation and she was very positive that this guy had no right to “touch her” and wasn’t nice about it “You can’t touch me”. The cop was standing back...obviously afraid of the implications. This girl was in charge. I just thought to myself - there is an Obama voter and probably she and the guy in the wheelchair are on welfare. These were professionally militant blacks.
I work with black people, in fact one of the people in my hospital visiting group is black, but they are different...they don’t care about color or use it as a weapon or an excuse. The underclass the liberals have created for their base is like a bunch of people from another planet for those of us who aren’t used to it. I watched the episode yesterday and just thought “California is gone forever”. Pray the rest of the country doesn’t follow.
Who was it that won only one state? Mondale?
Yep, MN and DC was it.
I also seem to remember that once the Reagan campaign knew they had it in the bag, they quit running ads in Minnesota, I guess so Mondale wouldn't be totally humiliated.
Yep, Minnesota!
Now nobama’s problem in 12 is the idiots are having a lot of trouble finding any incentive to vote period. Its much easier to gin up for a challenger. I suspect many of those idiots have taken a heap of ridicule for their 08 vote and would just as soon not have to go though that over again.
Even his plantation bruthas, who will certainly not vote for Mitt, are not looking much enthused this time.
In Utah and Idaho, maybe 74.42%. Without Ryan, Romney doesn’t get that kind of love on FR!
Reagan didn't bother with MN at all, until the last minute. Air Force One was enroute to CA for election day, and made a quick stop in Rochester, MN.
Mondale won MN by a vote margin so thin that it was less than one vote per precinct (about 1,300 votes, I think). Several third-party candidates each had enough votes to constitute the winning margin.
There were persistent rumors of massive vote fraud in the Iron Range at the last minute to generate enough votes to keep from embarrassing Mondale completely. But, it wasn't worth investigating.
Here's the University of Colorado press release
Fred, your Post #4 is spot-on.
The best we can hope for is to make it a competitive race here and force the Dems to spend money and time here - rather than in Iowa or Wisconsin.
IOW, we’ll try to take one for the team.
Awesome. I'm beyond thrilled to think about him being summarily and humiliatingly axed on Nov. 2.
“There were persistent rumors of massive vote fraud in the Iron Range at the last minute to generate enough votes to keep from embarrassing Mondale completely.”
I’ve long heard that story too from GOP activists here in Minnesota. Given the history of voter fraud in Minnesota, I can’t rule it out.
“Is it even possible?”
Anything is possible, the question is it probable?
I would say, 45 states out of the 50.
Including OH, VA, and PA.
There was a similar article in 2000 that showed this (or a similar) academic model with Gore defeating W. Then again, Gore did win the pop vote.
I really, really, REALLY want them to be correct. Nonetheless, we have to keep fighting as if these guys have no idea what they are talking about.
A coin flip PING: “ - - - academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes.”
I posted a prediction a month ago on another arguing with some libs, based on my reading of the polls and internals and playing with my spreadsheets, I cam within .1% of the CU guys:
Here’s a hint, in the 2010 mid terms the turnout was 35-35-30, dem-pub-indy the NBC poll was weighted 46-35-19, dem-pub-indy, you’d have to be high on crack to believe those numbers. Oh yeah the poll
What they say is that Obama is not doing well among independents.
So they had to over sample dems by +11 relative to their turnout relative to 2010 and under sample indies by -11 to get Obama the incumbent to 49% and Romney to 43%.
SO in this poll the independents went for Romney 58-42, assuming each candidate got 90% of their base.
If we apply the 2010 turn out model (reasonable/conservative estimate) since party id is currently running +3 pub) as opposed to the crack turnout model with dems being 46% of the electorate and independents being 19% of voters. The result is 49-45% Romney The other 9% say 3% go to 3rd parties (based on history, is ~50% high), that leaves 6% undecided, normally 80% go to the challenger ler’s reduce that to only 66%. In that case Romney wins 53-47% No wonder the Obama campaign is spending more than it is taking in while Romney can’t spend anything prior to the convention.
I am very happy with this prediction as thing sunfold.
It would be so sweet to repeat in 12.
Certainly not the UMW, this time...
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