Posted on 08/22/2012 5:53:53 PM PDT by mandaladon
DENVER — A University of Colorado economic model that has correctly predicted the last eight presidential elections shows Mitt Romney emerging as the victor in 2012.
Ken Bickers, professor of political science at the University of Colorado Boulder, and Michael Berry, political science professor at the University of Colorado Denver, announced Wednesday that their state-by-state analysis shows the Republican capturing a majority of electoral votes.
"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," said Mr. Bickers, who also serves as director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
The results show President Obama winning 218 votes in the Electoral College, well short of the 270 required for victory. While the study focuses on the electoral vote, the professors also predict that Mr. Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Mr. Obama's 47.1 percent when considering only the two major political parties.
The analysis factors in a host of economic data, including state and national unemployment figures and changes in real per capita income.
"What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” Mr. Bickers said.
While noneconomic factors such as incumbency can play a role in the election's outcome, the professors found that there was no statistical advantage conferred by the location of the party's national convention, the home state of the vice-presidential candidate, or the party affiliation of state governors.
Read more: University of Colorado model predicts Romney win in November - Washington Times
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
If we can focus on the economy and not commit anymore unforced errors, we should do fine.
`I personally believe.....`
I hate these economic prediction models unless my side is winning.
Thanks mandaladon.
Agreed. I think that most of these "battleground states" will fall into the Romney column. Of course, there could be unforeseeable outside events between now and November that could throw the forecast into doubt.
BTW, these professors have to be congratulated for telling it as it is, and are probably risking, at the lest, their popularity on their campuses by predicting an Obama defeat.
Did they factor in vote fraud?
This will make two niches of FReepers sad.
The ones who said Romney can’t win
and
the ones who say Romney winning is as bad / worse than Obama....
That's where Obama can shine, or otherwise.
In addition to Hurricane Isaac, we now have Tropical Storm 10 following in Isaac's track.
They are less powerful in terms of winds, but they can be much larger than any hurricane when it cames to rainfall.
The Colorado professors failed to account for a SE/MIdatlantic DISASTER of Biblical proportions ~ so they should go back and try that.
Still time to replace him with a Republican you know.
"War on women" has morphed into "Party of Rape" at NRO.
“BTW, these professors have to be congratulated for telling it as it is, and are probably risking, at the lest, their popularity on their campuses by predicting an Obama defeat.”
Thanks for the ping!
Romney 320
Oblamer 218
Maybe Colorado is a decent school?
This is just below your projection, Gopster.
And it will make most Americans very happy.
Very well put! If only Romney and Ryan can stay on message, the media knows this and will try to make everything else the issue.
The only dark cloud I see is if Israel strikes Iran before the election.
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