Gallup: Obama Approval Below Fifty In All Major Swing States

Big Government ^ | August 1, 2012 | John Nolte

[Zakeet]

Today, Gallup released new job approvals polls taken in all fifty states with the headline: "Thirteen States and D.C. Give Obama Majority Approval."

You can also read that as "Obama Below Majority Approval In 37 States".

The problem for Obama is that his approval numbers are only above 50% in states we already know he's going to win in November. But in swing states he must take in order to win the opportunity to finish the job of destroying our country, the President is well below 50.

Iowa, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania -- 46%.

Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina -- 45%

Ohio -- 44%.

Colorado, New Hampshire -- 43%.

Gallup explains how dire these numbers are for Obama:

The 50% approval mark is significant because post-World War II incumbent presidents who have been above 50% job approval on Election Day were easily re-elected. Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have more uncertain re-election prospects. Historically, two presidents below 50% in their final approval rating before the election -- George W. Bush and Harry Truman -- won, and three, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush, lost.

That's a somewhat simplistic way to look at it.

[Snip]

In better news, this latest round of Gallup polls contradict the latest round of juiced media-generated polls…

The CBS/NYT model has Democrats +9 in Florida when in 2008 they were only a +3 and an even split in the 2010 midterms. Ohio’s sample has exactly the split in 2008 (D+8), which is nine points better than Democrats did in the midterms. Pennsylvania’s numbers (D+6) come closest to a rational predictive model, somewhere between 2008′s D+7 and 2010′s D+3, but still looking mighty optimistic for Democratic turnout.

…so it's pretty safe to say that Obama is the one in trouble, not Romney.

[TomEwall]

I think there are good signs. With the Job Approval rate at around 46/47%, it makes it impossible that Obama is doing nearly as well as the swing state polls which have him ahead by 5 to 8 points, or more, suggest. At best, he could be even.

But that 1 in 5 registered Democrats would vote for Romney seems very unlikely. They’d be much more likely to just not vote. So you could trim some expected votes from Obama due to lack of enthusiasm, but you wouldn’t want to double count these.

If Obama’s job approval numbers stay where they are, at around 46/47%, I think the election will be close. Compare to Bush in 2004. His Job Approval was 49.5, and he won the election by a little over 3 pct. points.

[HamiltonJay]

Obama has a peak of 42-43% of the popular vote IMHO, he has no chance of getting higher than that.. and he’ll only get that if he runs a FLAWLESS campaign, and his campaign so far is a joke.

I really believe he’ll be lucky to see 40% of election day.

T Minus 3 months and we will know.

[newgeezer]

There is no way he can win..legitimately.

There is one way.

If enough "principled conservatives" refuse to vote for the GOP nominee, 0baMao the Marxist will win.

[Norman Bates]

Despite Rasmussen showing Obama up 50-45 in Nevada this is quite dramatic. These are Obama’s approval ratings:

Iowa, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania — 46%.

Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina — 45%

Ohio — 44%.

Colorado, New Hampshire — 43%.

[LS]

Just doesn’t add up. With such low approval #s, it doesn’t matter even if the didn’t like Romney-—the human inclination os to get rid of someone you don’t like.

[Biggirl]

The reality is that Romney is going to win, any base that would be for Obama will be so “depressed” that their turnout will be much, much lower. Trust me.

[Biggirl]

This election belongs to Romney.

[Heart of Georgia]

“Sure some folks will stay home or protest, but it won’t matter.”

I believe we can overcome the dem fraud and the protest voters. But the thing that has me concerned is that our votes are being tallied in Spain - by obama’s choosing - and apparently soros is involved.

[randita]

In 2010, the GOP won 60 some House seats back from Dems. Less than a dozen House Dems hold seats now in districts that lean GOP.

Redistricting was pretty much a wash overall and at this point, most analysts don’t think the House will swing more than 6 seats or so either way. The GOP will keep the House but not make major gains.

The GOP needs a net gain of four seats to take the Senate. They are in danger of losing ME and MA, and if they do, they’ll need to take six away from the Dems to win the Senate. Four of those six are pretty much in the bag. There are still primaries in Aug., so it’s not clear who the GOP candidates will be and how they’ll stack up against the Dem candidate. That will shape up for the end of the month.

[M Kehoe]

Good evening.

The choice this November is between a liberal and a marxist. If the country chooses a liberal we may have another 10 years. If the country chooses a marxist we will have CWII by January.

I truly don't know which is better. In 10 years I will be too old too hump 81mm mortar cases. Now, I can hump 81mm mortar cases.

I hate decisions with no up side.

5.56mm

[PghBaldy]

The polls to watch are the ones we don’t see- the ones Obama is doing and which lead him to ct like he is going to lose. He is acting like a loser, contrary to 2008. People need to watch the pathetic video he did showing people how to send him money.He doesn’t seem Presidential in the least.

[Windflier]

A conservative congress to keep Willard on the straight & narrow.

I hope you don't actually believe that a Republican dominated Congress will push back against a wayward (read: liberal) Republican president. It works the other way around, friend. He'll be the leader of their party, and they will give him what he wants.

See: GW Bush + Republican Congress - 2000 to 2006.

[Windflier]

The choice this November is between a liberal and a marxist. If the country chooses a liberal we may have another 10 years. If the country chooses a marxist we will have CWII by January.

I agree with your scenario, should the Marxist win re-election, but I'm not as optimistic about our prospects, if the liberal is elected. Simply managing the decline set in place by the Obama regime won't get us through the liberal's one (and only) term in office.

We might see CWII before the 2016 campaign begins.

[Grampa Dave]

It is time to unemploy him, retire him, leave our inglorious leader in the ditch, and to move on!

[BIGLOOK]

It's doubtful that obama will carry any of the states that are close to 50% as well, Dave. I doubt that the pollsters from any polling group are interviewing any registered Republicans or conservatives so even the 'swings' matters little.

Hawaii will always be in his column....since they're all dems or unemployed or worse.....like dead.

[Ann Archy]

He’s going to wipe out ALL COLLEGE DEBT!! Then he’ll get 85% of the vote!!

[Ann Archy]

oh PLEASE.....50% of the people pay NO FEDERAL INCOME TAXES and a TON of them get MONEY from us!!

[aruanan]

Obama cannot and will not get over 42-43% of the popular vote in Novemeber, and that is if he runs a flawless campaign. Reality is his campaign is a train wreck. I truly believe if he hits 40% on Election night he’s incredibly lucky.

All he has to do is to convince those who voted for him before that all their free crap (cell phones, internet, electrical assistance, health care, no taxes, many thousands per year in EIC--should be called "unearned income credit"--billions in bail-outs, millions in loans for failing business, etc) will be coming to an end if they don't vote for him and the Democrats. He's making this election about THEM and their fears. People are always more motivated to action that they perceive will benefit themselves or avoid pain than to action that will benefit someone else. Barry is counting on the votes of the cynics and self-interested and is putting everything into fanning their hatred of those he claims are threatening their free ride.

[Gritty]

But the thing that has me concerned is that our votes are being tallied in Spain - by obama’s choosing - and apparently soros is involved.

"Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." ― Joseph Stalin