Posted on 07/14/2012 7:59:44 AM PDT by mandaladon
My regular correspondent Number-Cruncher checks in, groaning about the latest Pew poll and that organizations strange habit of including an unrealistic percentage of Democrats in their sample.
The latest one from Pew poll is a shining example of why our side gets so frustrated with polls. Every time a Pew poll comes out, the numbers appear out of whack. Of course if you are a number-cruncher and look to the cross-tabs, the results are clearly flawed. Pew, to its credit, tells us its history since 1988. Basically in 1988 they did a good job, calling the race almost perfectly, possibly even overestimating Bush support by 0.4% (keep in mind they round so 50-42 could be 7.6%). But since then, their results have been downhill.
Starting in 1992, EVERY Pew poll appears to lean to one direction always towards the Democrat, and by an average of more than 5 percentage points. Worse this is a reflection of the final poll which even the Democratic firm, Public Policy Polling, usually gets right.
October 1988 Bush 50 Dukakis 42; Actual Result Bush +7.6 (Call this one spot on.)
Late October 1992 Clinton 44 Bush 34; Actual Result :Clinton +5.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +5.5)
November 1996 Clinton +51 Dole 32; Actual Result Clinton +8.5 (Skew against Republican candidate +10.5)
November 2000 Gore 45; Bush 41 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.5)
November 2004 Kerry 46; Bush 45 (Skew against Republican Candidate +3.4)
November 2008 Obama 50 McCain 39 (Skew against Republican + 3.8)
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
You keep right on telling yourself those things.
Oh! I know!!
It makes Zero look better.
They hope the fake “poll” results will engender a bandwagon effect.
And they’re right.
Sadly.
Hope so.
DUH...
Pollster called me up the other night, I kept asking “which one is the democrat” and then when they said I said “I am voting for them”.
I hold pollsters in contempt so much I give them nothing but garbage data.
I'm hoping that's a rhetorical question.
They are just adjusting for voter fraud. Dems tend to vote more than one.
Polls have been skewed for a long time.
I remember the polls for Reagan & Carter as a dead heat until the very end. When I saw the cover of Newsweek the week of the election, it looked like it would be a close race. I never thought Reagan would win in a landside.
Cover of Newsweek Nov. 3, 1980: http://www.tias.com/11804/PictPage/1922502015.html
The question answers itself.
Um, because they *always* oversample Democrats because polling is as much about shaping public opinion as it is reporting public opinion.
The pollsters stopped being objective a few generations ago.
Remember that until relatively recently (concurrent with the rise of alternative media) the liberals have had exclusive control of the public dialog through their dominance of the media. They have controlled the meme for so long that they simply can't fathom being challenged. When they are, they react with visceral hatred and lash out at any and all who might challenge them. In the past, this has sufficed to cow any challengers. But such is not always the case now, and it freaks them out.
The Truth points to itself...
You sound like a vorlon....
Always look at the macro view and the money angle and you'll see the real story line.
INBN
Big campaigns also are driven by some pretty high-powered “consultants.” I’d not be surprised to learn that an awful lot of the money spent directly benefits them. Big ad buys make someone a lot of money!
I lead campaign finance audits for the FEC for five years and can say, with certainty, that more that one consultant or campaign manager personally benefited. Just check the FEC’s web site (fec.gov) and see where the money goes, and, to whom?
Because that’s how it’s always been done.
Polls before the election are all rigged. Ignore them.
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