Posted on 05/30/2012 7:16:29 AM PDT by Kaslin
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I dont believe its possible to turnaround America.
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60s. This is not good news for Obama.
*Youth voters. Obamas biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That wont happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to give someone different a chance. I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that hed support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didnt listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms. The issue isnt contraception its having a job to pay for contraception. Obamas economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their childrens future. This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying I didnt vote for Obama 4 years ago. But hes done such a fantastic job, I cant wait to vote for him today. Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obamas radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.
But Ill give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.
I could not agree with you more.
Carter #2 needs to down to defeat!
He hasn't screwed up so far. In fact, he seems to be doing everything right. Unlike McCain, it appears that Romney actually wants to be President.
He’s only been running against conservatives. Give him time.
One hopes that the author is correct.
But there are too many brilliant, Progressive geniuses out there who are in the tank for Obama. They love him and will not deprive him of their vote.
IMHO
The author forgot to mention that ACORN took a hit a few years ago so a decent chunk of the fake voters won’t be included either.
I have little faith that Romney will do much better than Obama, but things have to be going much better than they are right now for a current sitting president to win a 2nd term. My money is on Romney for this election. Worst case, things only marginally get better.
Sorry, but Gunny is an Obama man.
I have been saying this for over a year. As long as Romney (or whomever the GOP was to nominate) did not blow bubbles with his drool, he would win and it would not be close. It won’t be close.
I didn’t mean you were acting like a school kid or a liberal just for labelling people, but for labelling them inaccurately. Many, many people on this forum have a lot of objections to Romney, but I can’t think of any that base those objections on hate, so to label them as such is not accurate.
Now, if you’re saying that you weren’t trying to blanketly label everyone who objects to Romney as a “Romney hater”, then I guess I jumped to a conclusion about your comment and I apologize for my presumption and withdraw my statement.
I’m just tired of the Romneybots around here who are trying to inject the liberal “hate”/”bigot” charged words into the discussions about him to try and shut down debate, so I guess I got trigger-happy.
West would be great. I don’t know ERmey’s politics, but I like his style.
Nice post. Thanks.
-Rex
I think this guy is right on target. I predicted a Reaganesque landslide back at the first of the year...that’s my story and I’m sticking with it.
Thank you and Mr Root for my new tagline.
oops
Nice post. Thanks.
-Rex
It likely won’t be as Reaganesque in the EC, due to the population distribution these days, but its going to be a slaughter.
This election is simply a mandate on Obama.. the republican candidate is largely irrellevant.
I know that sounds callous and cynical, but its true.
You can’t run the country into the ground, and think you are going to have any shot at re-election.
Obama has the distinction of being the only president in the modern era who will have fewer americans working at the end of his term than there were at the beginning of his term. You can’t spin that away, you can’t read a teleprompter and get out of it, you can’t propoganda and lie your way around it.
The naive youth who ran to this guy in 08, are now out there without jobs, the youth coming out of college today, most won’t be able to find a job, at least not one that isn’t flipping burgers.
The very idea this election is going to be close is LAUGHABLE on its face. The press is going to keep up the lie through the summer, in hopes that their boy can somehow turn it around, but the reality is he can’t.
Obama is NOT an astute politician, and frankly he’s not that astute at all. He’s been playing in a league that requires talent well above his ability and its obvious to everyone.
By fall when the writing is on the wall, the press will finally realize the deal is done, the bloods in the water, and will turn on him. The more obvious it is this guys going down, and going down hard, the more petty and angry he’s going to become and act. And the more he acts like that, the lower his numbers are going to go.
I challenge anyone out there, get off free republic and go talk to those swing voters you know that voted for Obama last time... don’t be condesending, don’t be told you so, just go and talk to them and find out if they intend to vote for him this time... You’ll see that it just ain’t happening folks. Swing voters will easily break 5 to 3 to 2 to 1 for the republican this cycle, if not worse and there is no way you win an election with that reality.
You cannot lose 40% of the vote by a 5 to 3 or 2 to 1 margin and think you have any chance of winning. Obama will try a desperate EC win, yielding the popular vote but try to hang onto enough EC votes to squeat it out, but its just not there.
Agreed, but it will still be a landslide...as Reaganesque as is possible with today's demographic mix.
Glad to see the free republic spellcheck stormtroopers are on duty
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