Posted on 05/19/2012 8:03:59 PM PDT by SMGFan
Jim Cramer Tweeting and requesting tweets about possible problem with NASDAQ Facebbok
(Excerpt) Read more at twitter.com ...
lol
IPOs are merely a game get in fast, watch it rise and get out just as fast.
IMHO...
The whole NZ GDP is about $123 billion.
The population is a little over 4 million, where fb already has 900 million users total, and they already have about 2 million New Zealanders as users.
For a U.S. corp to ring up sales in NZ, there’s the complexity of currency exchange, corporate entities, taxation, regulation, etc. So fb has to jump through quite a few hoops, just to monetize their NZ users, which are only about 0.2% of their userbase. With a little country like NZ, there’s just not much upside left with the current fb model. And NZ is a modern country with decent per-capita income.
Maybe this is not so bad, but they have users in over 200 countries. Including 20 in Vatican City. That’s a lot of hoops to jump through.
Typically advertisers advertise inside their own country, unless they are a large business. And undoubtedly fb already has most large businesses as customers already. They simply need a way to deliver more value per user where they actually can get paid for the value.
At the end of the day, fb is just a website. They have tools and integration, but the bulk of their revenue comes from driving more traffic to the fb website. IMHO, most businesses were goofy for worrying about being on fb, since they have their own website and should actually be driving traffic to their own website. The infamous “social” aspect of fb could be replaced simply by an open standard that could be adopted on every website. And the idea of building a “web presence” without having a website; there are tons of cheap sites that let you build your own site, there’s really nothing special there. fb’s success so far has been all about the “social” mania they’ve created in the past few years.
With the GM pullout, we can see that there’s at least one example of a client not finding enough return for their ad dollars under the fb model as it is now.
If you're not paying for the product...you are the product.
Your exactly correct.
Imagine if FB charged the 3rd party websites .01 cent for each time a user authenticated with the FB service for their website. I would imagine an easy $1B per year right there.
The Stock generated over $100B for Facebook... Now imagine with $100B in the back what kind of company FB could aquire? A Telecom maybe? or a Cable company? They could buy another tech company like Amazon if they desired.
I think FB will morph into something other than a social networking site, just as Google morphed into something more than a Yahoo clone / search engine.
Buying FB stock right now is a bet that what they morph into is going to be successful.
I have a FB account but rarely do anything with it. I use Firefox with Adblock Plus and I didn't even realize FB had ads until I read it somewhere recently.
It was beyond obvious:
“Facebook’s underwriters had to step in to support the company’s share price, people familiar with the matter said. In particular, lead underwriter Morgan Stanley MS -0.82% was assigned to be the deal’s “stabilization agent”—meaning it was the firm’s job to keep the shares above the offering price, these people said. In that role, Morgan Stanley was forced to buy Facebook shares as the price slid toward $38 in order to prevent the price from crossing into negative territory, according to these people.”
“I think FB will morph into something other than a social networking site”
Good post, and you’re right. And whatever FB morphs into will likely be evil... in my opinion.
My Dad used to “play” the market quite a bit. But then he noticed that the “market maker” was playing around with some of the stocks he was acquiring. To say he was “ticked off” is putting it mildly. He closed out most of his positions and is now invested in just two and is holding them for now.
In any case he is totally convinced that the market now is completely manipulated and that most people should just stay out.
Facebook’s primary product is you. You’re the thing they sell. Ads? Yeah, sure, in the traditional delivery channel of what is now the internet, ads certainly do account for some revenue. But what YOU like and identify as things you view and add to your profile are all demographics that are sold to vendors. Armed with your (and all the millions of other people’s) demographics, retailers fine tune ALL their marketing efforts.
Not likely, but the shorting will commence this week, I guarantee it.
On the first day of trading, there is no stock available for loan in order to take a short position, as the trades have not yet been settled to establish the holder of record. FB is truly a dog with fleas from a potential earnings perspective. I anticipate it trading in the $10 range in short order, but $2 - $4 is what it is really worth.
The intelligent investor would have never bought this crap in the first place!
So does that mean those who bought stock aren’t getting it?
Couldn't figure out if it was a ploy to try to boost the market and instill "confidence" or just incredibly bad timing for them to go public.
And they will, because all the young, smart people want to work there rather than, say, General Motors. What they do today is almost irrelevant, other than that they have 900 million people already favorably disposed toward their brand. The IPO price reflects what they are about to morph into.
Correct you are! I’m going long Jiffy Pop, it’ll be worth it!
Let me join Knuckle-Dragging Conservatives!
Dunno if the hyphen makes a difference. I left it out.
As with the "Holy Grail" knights - "RUN AWAY1"
Actually, you received a sign that God loves you. :-)
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