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Gallup: Catholic vote a tossup, 46/46
Hotair ^ | 05/03/2012 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 05/03/2012 7:01:44 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

In 2008, Barack Obama won the Catholic vote by nine points, 54/45, over John McCain on his way to a seven-point victory in the national popular vote. Three months after announcing the HHS mandate that would force religious hospitals, schools, and charities to fund contraception, sterilization, and abortifacients, Obama has lost that edge among the tens of millions of Catholic voters. A new Gallup poll shows Obama in a dead heat with Mitt Romney, at just about the same level as McCain got in 2008:

Catholic voters in the United States are evenly split in their support for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney for president, mirroring the national trend. However, Hispanic Catholics --- about 18% of the total group of Catholic voters --- are overwhelmingly likely to support Obama over Romney, while a majority of non-Hispanic white Catholics support Romney.

Obama led Romney by one percentage point, 46% to 45%, among the more than 8,000 registered voters interviewed as part of Gallup Daily tracking conducted April 11-30. Among the 1,915 Catholics interviewed during that time, support for Obama and Romney was almost the same, with 46% support for Obama and 46% for Romney.

Catholics’ divided preferences at this point contrast with those of the largest religious group in the country, Protestants, whose support swings to Romney by 51% to 41%. The split in Catholics’ preferences also differs from the choice among those who identify with another religion or no religion at all, a group that clearly supports Obama, by 58% to 33%.

The Protestant vote is going to be a problem for Obama, too. He lost Protestants to McCain by the same numbers, 45/54. However, the difference in both numbers is that Obama is a known quantity this time, unlike in 2008. Those who remain undecided now are much less likely to break towards the incumbent. Romney already has a ten-point lead among Protestants, and could easily stretch it out to the mid-teens by Election Day. Protestants made up 54% of the electorate in 2008, and it’s probably a safe bet that they’ll turn out even stronger in 2012.

Obama won despite the disadvantage mainly because of his strength among Catholics. Gallup tries to soften the blow by noting that Obama does very well among Hispanic Catholics, 70/20, but they are only about 18% of the bloc. Obama is deeply unpopular among non-Hispanic Catholics, 38/55. Whatever else happens, the Catholic vote won’t come to Obama’s rescue in 2012 as it did in 2008.

The US Conference of Catholic Bishops have not relented one iota on the issue of the HHS mandate, which means these numbers won’t be improving any time soon. That may even start having an impact on Obama’s lead among Hispanic Catholics. Obama will have to defend this intrusion on religious expression, thanks to the USCCB’s energetic attacks, but the administration will have to do better than this:

In sworn testimony before the House Education and Workforce Committee, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said that her general counsel did not write a legal memo explaining the religious freedom issues in the birth control mandate. During the same line of questioning, Sebelius also admitted to being unfamiliar with several important Supreme Court religious freedom cases.

Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) said that he knew of only three tests that the Supreme Court has used to balance a constitutionally protected freedom against a policy goal. He described those three tests and then asked Sebelius last Thursday, “Which of those three constitutional balancing tests were you making reference to when you said you ‘balanced’ things?”

“Congressman, I’m not a lawyer and I don’t pretend to understand the nuances of the constitutional balancing tests,” Sebelius answered.

“Before this rule was promulgated, did you read any of the Supreme Court cases on religious liberty?” Gowdy later asked.

Sebelius answered that she did not.

Chris Cillizza and Rachel Weiner underscore the importance of this bloc:

As Gallup’s Frank Newport notes in a memo on the findings, Catholics have historically been a Democratic-leaning constituency — the party can thank John F. Kennedy for that one — but in recent decades have become more of a toss-up voting bloc.

The eight presidential elections reveal how up for grabs Catholics truly. The Republican nominee has carried Catholics four times, the Democratic nominee has carried Catholics four times. …

Keep an eye on the Catholic vote between now and November. How it goes will tell you a lot about who is going to be the next president.

And as long as the bishops maintain the fight against the Obama administration — and they defend the mandate so badly — it won’t be Obama who wins this bloc.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012swingvote; bho2012; catholics; catholicvote; gallup; obama; romney
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To: Bronzy

I’m still dumb-founded as to how anyone could, or still can, vote for Obama. They have got to either be Entitlement whores or just ultra, ultra Liberal socially. Crazy world!!!


21 posted on 05/03/2012 7:22:55 AM PDT by no dems (TED CRUZ: A PROVEN CONSERVATIVE FOR U.S. SENATE FROM TEXAS.)
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To: SeekAndFind

There is no excuse for ANY Catholic to vote for Zero...church leaders are not doing their job...not at all.


22 posted on 05/03/2012 7:23:57 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: Bronzy

Guilt.


23 posted on 05/03/2012 7:24:52 AM PDT by ConservativeStatement (Obama "acted stupidly.")
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To: SeekAndFind

As a Catholic-—I will state that any Catholic who supports the Marxist, is supporting evil and anti-God policies—Slavery of the masses. They are SO STUPID. To vote for Zero is to vote for Satanic ideals. Wake up, Catholics—you Democrat-voting Catholics are destroying all the Values and Principles of this nation-—replacing them with Satanism/Atheism/Marxism which will eventually send all people who believe in God to the ovens.

True-—Rove Republicans—one World Government guys are the same-—they are hardly any better and have sold their soul to Satan, but we have to start to destroy the Chicago Democrat/union mafia/Marxist hold and take control over the platform of the Republican party and return it to the Virtues that formed it—not the “Virtue’s” and ideas of Barney Frank which turn the Constitution and Natural Law Theory on its head.

Frank removes God-Given Rights!!!!! So why do Catholics choose “no God Allowed” Democrats????? They are brainwashed and ignorant of the Constitution, especially Natural Law Theory—the Foundation of the US Constitution and US Law. They are stripped of all morality and are pseudo-Catholic who believe in Marxist ideas of radical egalitarianism—such an evil and inhumane ideology incompatible with the idea of God.


24 posted on 05/03/2012 7:24:57 AM PDT by savagesusie (Right Reason According to Nature = Just Law)
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To: SeekAndFind
Hispanic Catholics --- about 18% of the total group of Catholic voters --- are overwhelmingly likely to support Obama over Romney, while a majority of non-Hispanic white Catholics support Romney.

Pandering to "Hispanics" is fruitless.

"Hispanics" largely means Mexicans, and Mexicans come from Mexico. Mexico has a culture and political system that is Socialist. The world view of "Hispanics" is largely statist and entitlement oriented. The Catholic church does not moderate that world view, indeed it is reinforcing that world view through leftist, liberation theology subscribing clergy.

Thus we have "Catholics" voting in majority for a leader that advocates brutal, anti life, and indeed anti Catholic policies.

The Democrat party is a perfect fit for the bulk of "Hispanics" and isn't going to change.

25 posted on 05/03/2012 7:30:32 AM PDT by ecomcon
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To: SeekAndFind

If you’re Catholic, and you vote for 0bama,you’re not Catholic.


26 posted on 05/03/2012 7:33:40 AM PDT by gimme1ibertee (If you want to kick a tiger in the ass, you better have a plan for dealing with his teeth.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Seems about right for America the Stupid.


27 posted on 05/03/2012 7:34:16 AM PDT by chris37 (Heartless.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Ugh! I sure wish those “Catholics” that never even darken the door of their local parish would quit calling themselves Catholic.

As for me and the rest of the Catholics that take our faith seriously and follow the Church’s teachings, there will be no support for Obambi.

And it doesn’t help having a Mormon on the GOP ticket as I know many won’t support him based solely on that.


28 posted on 05/03/2012 7:39:47 AM PDT by al_c (http://www.blowoutcongress.com)
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To: Slump Tester
Wow - there must be as many stupid Catholics as there are stupid Jews.

If that was the case, Obama would have won the Catholic vote 99 percent to 1. Besides, Jews run and own the Democrat party. Why shouldn't they vote Democrat?

29 posted on 05/03/2012 7:41:32 AM PDT by Hacksaw (If I had a son, he'd look like George Zimmerman.)
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To: paguch

I left the catholic church a long time ago due to its liberalism and liberation theology and other bs.

Family utterly pissed off w me over it, but it is what it is.


30 posted on 05/03/2012 7:43:10 AM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: HamiltonJay
How any practicing Catholic who understands their faiths teaching could vote for a Democrat is beyond me...

Practicing Catholics don't. Those that only attend Mass on Easter and Christmas do.

31 posted on 05/03/2012 7:44:01 AM PDT by al_c (http://www.blowoutcongress.com)
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To: paguch

I know these guys....hard working construction/manufacturing/deliveryman etc. types, who despise guys like zer0bama but vote with their pocket books and ability to feed their families and cant see how Marxists like ‘the messiah’ are killing the jobs in the long run.

of course on the other end, there are the teacher union types who WANT a socialist society....


32 posted on 05/03/2012 7:44:33 AM PDT by Vaquero (Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Keep in mind two things.

1. There's a significant dropoff between white Catholics and non-white Catholics in voting (outside of maybe Florida with Cubans).

2. Many "Catholics" are not practicing Catholics, but id as such for ethnic reasons. Pelosi types.

33 posted on 05/03/2012 7:46:34 AM PDT by Darren McCarty (The Republican Party is bigger than the presidency.)
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To: al_c

My mom disparagingly calls those folks ‘Chreasters’.


34 posted on 05/03/2012 7:51:10 AM PDT by Darren McCarty (The Republican Party is bigger than the presidency.)
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To: GlockThe Vote

If America reelects B. Hussein Obama, we get what we deserve and I will have no sympathy when we are in a full-blown Depression. I have a house on 5 acres in the country, debt free, and 7 guns. I have a well and can grow my own food. But, God help the city-dwellers.


35 posted on 05/03/2012 7:55:08 AM PDT by no dems (TED CRUZ: A PROVEN CONSERVATIVE FOR U.S. SENATE FROM TEXAS.)
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To: gimme1ibertee

Re If you’re Catholic, and you vote for 0bama,you’re not Catholic.

Exactly!!


36 posted on 05/03/2012 8:03:14 AM PDT by jesseam
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To: servantboy777
So I don't get it. Catholics who vote for candidates that support abortion, gay lifestyles/marriage, policies that further urban plight and socialistic style societies that enslave the populace to tyrannical governments.....then go to mass on Sunday and receive the sacred elements during the covenant meal.

Just remember, there are faithful Catholics, and then there are Catholics like this:

We'll allow God to sort them out in the end...

37 posted on 05/03/2012 8:09:04 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (FUMR)
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To: SeekAndFind
Michael Voris' Vortex today is about this topic. He even shows Catholics leaning 51% toward Obama. The Bishops and the Priests have a lot of work to do from now until November and need to stress the importance of the upcoming election.

You can view today's Vortex at http://youtu.be/Nu97OFCPq5A.

38 posted on 05/03/2012 8:21:36 AM PDT by reegs
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To: SeekAndFind
Maybe southern catholics are different. When JFK ran, my catholic Grandmother was totally against him because he was a Dem and she was always conservative.

Now, the Catholic side of the family (I am Protestant) are and have been firmly against Obama. They see what he is, as could anyone with half a brain and analytical ability have done. His practiced slicing off his words to make them seem important, and his inability to think on his feet, but, especially, his plans to "fundamentally change" this country and his blatant dislike of our Constitution make him uniquely UNQUALIFIED to be POTUS..

This man WILL BE the end of America as we know it if reelected. His color be d@#ned.

IncidentallyMSM, blacks, et al----NEWSFLASH! The bamster is as white as he is black. His color soothes minorities, but that is just the wrapper. Inside, he is pure Chicago thuggery.

vaudine

39 posted on 05/03/2012 8:25:15 AM PDT by vaudine
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To: COBOL2Java

Not understanding how the church condones all of this. That is what puzzles me.


40 posted on 05/03/2012 8:25:36 AM PDT by servantboy777
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