Election 2012 Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney [MR +4]

Gallup ^ | 4/18/12 | Gallup

[SoFloFreeper]

These are the results when registered voters are asked: "Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?" Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results.

[SoFloFreeper]

Romney steady @ 48%. Obama up 1 to 44%.

Gallup will supposedly do this every day until the Election, or until one of these two aren't the nominee of their respective party.

[SatinDoll]

I refuse to play their game.

It’ll be Newt Gingrich as a write-in.

[DJtex]

This poll captures “leaners” but it is still registered voters. Likely voters would be + 3% greater lead for the Republican.

[Ingtar]

It will likely stay in Romney’s favor until the danger of a divided convention has passed. They manipulated some of the poll numbers during the primary so far to get their desired result, why would they stop now?

[GonzoGOP]

This poll captures “leaners” but it is still registered voters. Likely voters would be + 3% greater lead for the Republican.

Undecideds break 80/20 for the challenger even in years when the challenger gets beaten badly. So you need to tack another 6.4 points onto the challenger or 54.4%. If that holds out it will be the biggest blowout since 1984 when Reagan picked up 58% of the popular vote in a 49 state blowout.

I don't expect this lead to hold up once Obama turns the flying monkeys lose on Willard. I certainly can't be news Obama wants to hear. Obama expected to be sitting on a healthy lead after the GOP beat itself to death in the primaries.

The good news is we are probably going to win. The bad news is with Willard we won't win much. Kind of like winning a free house in Detroit.

[rogue yam]

I don't expect this lead to hold up once Obama turns the flying monkeys lose on Willard.

The leftists will certainly throw everything they have at Mittlestiltskin.

Some of up are going to spend the next seven months punching back twice as hard.

[capt. norm]

The "anybody but Obama" vote is starting to show up.

Our guy can win on the anti-Obama vote, no matter who he is.

*Except for jack the Ripper and the Boston Strangler.

[capt. norm]

This is very much like the lead-in in the 1980 election The press was spreading it on really thick how Carter would win (and it was so depressing) ...and then the election happened ...

"Oh no!"

[Bubba_Leroy]

Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results.

What about those who have decided that they will not vote for either one?

[GonzoGOP]

Some of up are going to spend the next seven months punching back twice as hard.

I won't defend Romney. I will however attack Obama at every possible opportunity. It may seem like a little thing, but four years from now we may want to primary the bum and assuming I haven't gotten the zot by then posters here will be digging through any old posts to show how I supported Romney last time. Thing is with me at least they won't find any.

Assuming that Romney is elected the only way to keep him from going full bore leftist is the constant threat of a primary challenge in 2020. The only thing you can count on with Romney is that he is a coward. If we can make him more scared of us than he is of the liberals we might be able to survive his presidency.

[cookcounty]

"It’ll be Newt Gingrich as a write-in."

Interestingly, Newt v. Obama is rising fast in Rasmussen's Likely Voter poll. Still down 7 points, but that is way up from a few weeks ago.

[SoFloFreeper]

What about those who have decided that they will not vote for either one?

Don’t know how Gallup rates ir, but the effect is a vote FOR Obama. Just like any third party.

[bert]

They are irrelevant.

[Ingtar]

Woohoo! I am irrelevant! This feels like the same point when they pushed Dole on us, though in that case I voted for the man.

[erod]

Not to be too bold here, but if this keeps up it’s going to be a blowout on Super Tuesday, it won’t even be close. That’s saying something, because we had way better candidates than Mittens.

[mosesdapoet]

I beleive it was at about this time Reagan was beating Carter by about 14%.

[SoFloFreeper]

I beleive it was at about this time Reagan was beating Carter by about 14%.

Your history is probably as accurate as your spelling.

[ObamaMustGo2012]

As they say, if an incumbent is below 50 percent, he’s toast. More than 80 percent of “undecided” voters go AWAY from the incumbent.

If there’s anything worse than Democrats campaigning, it’s Democrats campaigning DESPERATELY. This will probably end up being one of the ugliest campaigns of all time.

[SatinDoll]

Romney is no conservative Republican and as such is unacceptable to the majority of conservative voters.

I look at it this way: if Murkowski can win as a write-in in Alaska, that gives the resto of us hope that Gingrich can, too, win as a write in against Obama.

[mosesdapoet]

” my comment was spelled” I beleive it was at about this time Reagan was beating Carter by about 14%. and your cute response was this...
“Your history is probably as accurate as your spelling”

OK little man... Your snarky reply doesn’t answer the question ...So what were the polling figures where Reagan flipped the polls and why isn’t your guy doing any better than 4% against this disaster of a leader ?

In fact he’s scaring the hell out guys like Kudlow who’s been backing him with his tax the rich B/S...BTW It was not Carter but Mondale but you didn’t know that, in April 80 Reagan began to jump ahead of Carter

There is nothing reassuring about this poll...It’s worrysome.

.