Special Report: Intel shows Iran nuclear threat not imminent

The United States, European allies and even Israel generally agree on three things about Iran's nuclear program: Tehran does not have a bomb, has not decided to build one, and is probably years away from having a deliverable nuclear warhead.

Those conclusions, drawn from extensive interviews with current and former U.S. and European officials with access to intelligence on Iran, contrast starkly with the heated debate surrounding a possible Israeli strike on Tehran's nuclear facilities.

"They're keeping the soup warm but they are not cooking it," a U.S. administration official said.

Reuters has learned that in late 2006 or early 2007, U.S. intelligence intercepted telephone and email communications in which Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a leading figure in Iran's nuclear program, and other scientists complained that the weaponization program had been stopped.

If the mullahs want a gun type bomb, they can build it right now; maybe even several.

They will be heavy, but could be delivered by sea, e.g., in a cargo container, sub, or commercial aircraft.

If a container with a nuke goes off in NY harbor, who do we blame?

Great post.

Iran had 10 kilos of 5% in February, 2010 that grew to 30 kilos of 20% by October 2010, using their only cascade capable of doing so. They have an estimated 105 kilos of 20% now.

Given the same production efficiency, Iran adds about 5 kilos of 20% a month, 60 kilos of 20% a year.

But what does it take to get to 90% enrichment of U-235, enough for a bomb? That is where the concept of “effective kilograms” comes in.

Because of Iran’s relatively crude and inefficient processing program is not very effective. The “effective kilograms” is the weight multiplied by the square of its enrichment.

Iran’s current 105 kilos of 20% can, under the best conditions, produce only 4.2 kilos of 90%. A gun-type bomb needs about 58 kilos of 90%.

Iran adds about 2.4 kilos a year and it would take them over 22 years to get enough for a crude weapon.

Their cascades can’t do any better, any faster. Iran knows it and that is one reason why they want a Heavy Water Reactor. Iran has been effectively blocked from buying the technology to be more efficient.

Implosion type bombs need far less fuel. However the high-speed explosive design is very complex. That’s why IAEA inspectors are so interested in the explosives testing at Parchin. They may be working on an implosion-type bomb.

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