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Great post.

Iran had 10 kilos of 5% in February, 2010 that grew to 30 kilos of 20% by October 2010, using their only cascade capable of doing so. They have an estimated 105 kilos of 20% now.

Given the same production efficiency, Iran adds about 5 kilos of 20% a month, 60 kilos of 20% a year.

But what does it take to get to 90% enrichment of U-235, enough for a bomb? That is where the concept of “effective kilograms” comes in.

Because of Iran’s relatively crude and inefficient processing program is not very effective. The “effective kilograms” is the weight multiplied by the square of its enrichment.

Iran’s current 105 kilos of 20% can, under the best conditions, produce only 4.2 kilos of 90%. A gun-type bomb needs about 58 kilos of 90%.

Iran adds about 2.4 kilos a year and it would take them over 22 years to get enough for a crude weapon.

Their cascades can’t do any better, any faster. Iran knows it and that is one reason why they want a Heavy Water Reactor. Iran has been effectively blocked from buying the technology to be more efficient.

Implosion type bombs need far less fuel. However the high-speed explosive design is very complex. That’s why IAEA inspectors are so interested in the explosives testing at Parchin. They may be working on an implosion-type bomb.