Posted on 01/15/2012 10:32:42 PM PST by TitansAFC
ATLANTA — As the GOP races settles into South Carolina, Mitt Romney isn’t enjoying the double-digit lead he held in New Hampshire, according to a survey conducted Wednesday night.
The former Massachusetts governor’s lead is so small in the Palmetto State that he’s essentially tied with Newt Gingrich, according to a poll for the Augusta Chronicle and Savannah Morning News conducted by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research.
Romney’s 23 percent and Gingrich’s 21 fall within the 3.6 percent margin of error. Rick Santorum, who came in second in the Iowa caucus is in third pace in South Carolina with 14 percent, while Ron Paul, the runner up in New Hampshire, is effectively tied with him at 13.
Jon Huntsman has 7, and Rick Perry has 5 while 17 percent are undecided or favor a candidate not offered as a choice in the survey.
The telephone survey questioned 726 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the South Carolina GOP primary. Voters don’t have to be Republicans to participate in the Jan. 21 balloting, but independents generally make up a small share of the total, according to pollster Matt Towery, president of InsiderAdvantage.
Romney, Gingrich and Paul all do equally well with the independents in the survey. Paul, though, is getting little traction from long-time Republican voters.
Romney does better with female voters while men prefer Gingrich.
“This is not good news for Mitt Romney,” said Towery, who chaired several of Gingrich’s congressional campaigns before becoming a non-partisan pollster. “There is no other way to put it. This means it is a dead-even race. South Carolinians couldn’t care less about New Hampshire or Iowa.”
Romney, on his second try for the nomination, won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary this month, the first non-incumbent Republican to do so. However, those back-to-back wins don’t seem to be giving him overwhelming momentum this far South.
Gingrich represented the western part of neighboring Georgia for 20 years in Congress and apparently knows how to appeal to southern voters who tend to be more concerned about social issues than those in New Hampshire.
The Jan. 21 GOP primary in South Carolina is regarded as the first meaningful contest because of what the results will signal for the party’s chances of defeating President Obama in November. Of course, it’s also stoking anticipation because of the legendary ruthlessness of the state’s political operatives.
Republicans in South Carolina like to remind people that their primary picks presidents, or at least presidential nominees. Since 1980, when Ronald Reagan won 55 percent of the vote, no candidate has captured the Republican nomination for president without notching a win in South Carolina’s GOP primary. In the 2008 election, eventual-nominee John McCain won the South Carolina primary with more than 30 percent of the vote, trailed by Iowa winner Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Romney came in fourth in South Carolina with about 15 percent.
This time, the results will be dramatically different, as the state’s active Evangelical voting bloc is expected to set aside prejudice in favor of pragmatism. Support among their ranks may signal that they accept Romney, a Mormon, in part for being the candidate largely believed to offer the toughest challenge to President Obama.
Since Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, where Romney steamrolled his rivals with nearly 40 percent of the vote, the candidates have swarmed the Palmetto State. They are stumping at barbecue joints, pharmacies, universities and local government buildings. On Monday, the candidates are scheduled to participate in a debate in Myrtle Beach, hosted by the SCGOP, Fox News Channel, The Wall Street Journal, and Twitter.
Some are seeing the Palmetto State as their last chance to justify their candidacy.
Newt PinG!
Hopefully the pressure will get to Willie Mitty tonight during the debate..
But will Romney get Huntsman’s 7% now?
I’d like to see if this is last week’s poll or a new one over the weekend
Titan,
This poll was taken Wednesday by insider advanatge— another Insider poll was taken today. That poll has Newt 11 ponts down.
I hope I’m wrong-— but the same poll shows Newt losing ground these past 4 days, doesn’t it?
I certainly hope so. I hope they can make him squirm, sweat and sputter.
No. It shows Newt steady, Mitt gaining, and Santorum dropping.
But it apparently was formulated differently, I’m being told. Apparently a different demographic calculation than used before. Not sure why.........
You know, Titan, I HOPE you’re right.
Insider is sponsored by Newsmax— they have endorsed Newt. I can’t see this as good news. I hope I’m wrong.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
ARG!
I can see that Huntsman is trying to throw the race to Romney, by withdrawing and endorsing Romney. The SOB!
“Even if Santorum were to win SC and Florida, you would still be calling for him to drop out.... yeah, we get it..”
What was that you were saying about “pride”?
It looks like the most he can hope for is about half of that. I personally think its time for Perry to get out. He has no traction and even in SC is not gaining any. He is a good guy and conservative enough but at the end of the day that doesn’t win elections. Right now we have two real options against Romney and those are Newt and Santorum and Newt wins that hands down for me. He led the revolution that ushered in the election of Santorum and a freshman class of 1995 where the GOP took both the House and the Senate something that had not occurred in 40 years.
Newt has flaws but I know at the end of the day he won’t betray us on judges, he will fight alongside us and not against us where small govt is concerned and taxes (he actually has a record of balancing a budget and cutting the size of government). We can’t let perfect be the enemy of good enough or else we all lose with the election of our own Gerald Ford Romney. We have to hold the line in SC.
I don't consider their primary all that meaningful, since it's still an open primary, as was Iowa and NH.. Florida WILL be meaningful.
It’s a perfect storm of frustration, too many conservatives in the damn race.
It’s a perfect storm of frustration, too many conservatives in the damn race.
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