Posted on 12/25/2011 8:25:52 AM PST by TBBT
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is maintaining his commanding position atop the field of Republican candidates for president in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire, according to a new poll published in Christmas Day editions of the Boston Globe.
Romney leads with the support of 39 percent of likely GOP primary voters in his adopted home state, according to the poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, are tied for second place, each at 17 percent. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman runs fourth with 11 percent, breaking double-digits in the UNH poll for the first time.
The drop-off from the top four candidates in the poll is steep: Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., is fifth, at three percent, and all the other candidates combined -- Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer -- account for four percent of the vote.
Romney's share of the vote is down slightly from a UNH poll in mid-November, when he led with 42 percent. Gingrich has ticked up two points over that time, while Paul has jumped five percentage points since last month. Huntsman has improved his standing over the previous poll by three points.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...
Now... For those of you "wishing" that your favorite second tier horse is going to come from behind and win this thing, I want you to do something. Go study their standing in the polls down state from Iowa.
Good. Now that you are back, you assuredly discovered that all these candidates are in the low/mid single digits - everywhere. In other words, they are lost in the noise statistically. Most of these campaigns have no money or organization. So what's that spell? No Chance.
So what's that mean for the future for a viable Not Romney candidate? If the Not Romney candidate can get enough coalescing to win Iowa, then the momentum from that might give that Not Romney a close second in N.H. That would be a defeat for Romney. If the Not Romney vote remains fractured and Romney wins N.H. by 20 points or so, that will give him some momentum out of there - something that you don't want to happen.
Paul. Paul only serves as a useful idiot/tool to prevent the Not Romney coalescing. He's a trouble maker. He may well be over-polling. Let's hope Iowa hasn't gone that far over the edge. If Paul does under-perform then his numbers will fall off down state. If he does perform to his current polling numbers then his mischief will continue.
Newt. If not Newt, It will be Romney. Newt's the only one left standing that might be able to stop Romney. The others just don't stand the chance. Hopefully, that fact becomes crystal clear enough, soon enough, to a large enough body of Not Romney's.
Now if you don't like my analysis. Tough. Reality is what it is. The sooner you accept that fact the better. Resistance is futile, and all that Jazz...
Inconsequential New Hampshire. Means nothing. They are a joke state.
While Newt might be “the only one left standing that might be able to stop Romney”, he won’t be able to stop Obama.
I watched Frank Luntz when he learned, on live Fox News, that Newt failed to qualify for the ballot in Virginia. He acted surprised, asked if it was true and then said that any candidate who couldn’t master the electoral system of each State was (basically) too stupid to be President.
As I pointed out in another thread and really pissed somebody off, Patrick J. Buchanan won New Hampshire and was never seen again.
Everyone is all for cutting California loose! How about a similar rant for all of New England! That’s where most all of the miscreants that have Effed up California have come from. The biggest joke in the country is the notion that there are Republicans in New York.
Also note in your studies of down state polling - Newt’s got a strong lead in S.C. and Florida. Beyond those two states, in all the down state polling beyond that I’ve seen, Newt’s got a good lead or is in a close second.
If Newt is damaged (poor showing) coming out of Iowa, all the above might change. From the Not Romney perspective and second tier candidate fans, it’s not likely to change for the better. It’s more likely to result in a stronger Romney. It’s got about 0 chance of resulting in a phoenix like resurrection for one of the second tier hopefuls.
So what’s it going to be?
Newt or Romney?
It’s time to rally around Newt. No matter what you like about the other second tier candidates, Newt is the only one who can beat Romney and the debates against the messiah would be priceless.
Merry Christmas
It does sound like a typical talking head thing to say.
They love to project from the present. Until tomorrow forces them to change their tune to something they are equally adamant about.
Whoever gets the nomination gets my vote, as simple as that. Romney will win NH but the real test is if he survives the southern states, which Gingrich will win.
Watch THIS.
Romney is collapsing which is why FOX News and the
other Soros-paid surrogates are PIMPING THE MITT.
Romney will attack WHOMEVER is, or was, in his way.
What a model for POTUS. Not.
Years ago, when NH was salt of the earth “Live Free or Die” types New Hampshire mattered. Now it’s a liberal escape hatch from the cesspool they made out of their home state MA so it’s basically MA Jr.
yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
what evidence is there for what you’re saying?
Amen to that Brother.
New Hampshire means nothing.
New Hampshire is filled with liberal Yankees who are only hungry for the money spent by candidates.
Newt will win Iowa. I’m feelin’ it.
me too. Newt will win Iowa
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.