Posted on 12/21/2011 11:25:00 AM PST by Antoninus
Rick Santorum's presidential campaign has started to show signs of life, and GOP kingmakers in Iowa say the former senator has an outside shot of winning the caucus next month.
While the large religious conservative voting bloc remains split between Santorum, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, many experts in the state say Santorum has more structure and momentum than the other two and could coalesce enough support to win the state.
However, he’s failed to break through in polling, barely making it out of the single digits. And if evangelical Christian voters, who make up the majority of caucus voters, remain divided, that could hand another contender the victory.
But Santorum got a powerful boost on Tuesday with an endorsement by Bob Vander Plaats, one of Iowa’s most powerful social conservatives.
The former Pennsylvania senator has spent more time in the state than any other candidate, is closely aligned ideologically with the state’s large number of religious conservatives, and has rolled out a number of endorsements from local Republican activists in recent days.
A strong showing by Santorum would echo former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s (R) late come-from-behind victory in Iowa. Huckabee’s move to the top came shortly after Thanksgiving, while Santorum has not yet shown that surge. But some say it’s not too late.
“The guy on the move is Santorum. He’s shown movement in terms of lining up these endorsements and people who can move voters, and showing movement on the ground,” said Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Iowa Republican Party, who is not endorsing a candidate. “He’s got major endorsements rolling in, he’s got his super-PAC advertising, he’s got his own TV ad up. His campaign is starting to show that there’s indisputable proof that there’s momentum. ... Bachmann and Perry are showing activity and calling it momentum.”
Santorum has slowly but steadily risen in the polls, unlike Bachmann, Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich, all of whom soared before sputtering. He was in a three-way tie for fourth place with Perry and Bachmann at 10 percent in the latest poll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, just four points behind Gingrich.
Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have led recent polls, but most observers in Iowa say the two have hard ceilings of support and are unlikely to be able to expand much on their current bases of about 20 percent of the vote, leaving any candidate who can catch a late spark within striking distance.
Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), a conservative kingmaker in the state, predicted that a large number of social conservatives would remain swayable up through the election, and campaign infrastructure would make the difference. King, who has not endorsed but is close with Bachmann, said that Santorum and Bachmann would benefit from that.
“The support is going to flow on caucus night to the candidate or candidates who are best organized on the precinct level,” he said. “Whoever can deploy a couple thousand good speakers out there to each one of those places who are compelling can make a difference because there will be a lot of undecideds sitting out there. At this point it looks to me like Santorum has the best structure and Bachmann is closing on that right now. Those two structures are the two best in the state.”
Vander Plaats heaped praise on Santorum’s record on Tuesday, and on Saturday called Bachmann and asked that she drop out of the race (she refused). He is popular with Iowa’s conservatives, led the successful fight to remove three Iowa Supreme Court justices after they legalized gay marriage, and ran for governor in 2010, nearly winning the GOP primary against popular Gov. Terry Branstad (R).
He received nearly 100,000 votes in that race, almost as many voters as usually turn out for the GOP presidential caucuses.
“It’s a meaningful endorsement and one which I’m sure Michele Bachmann wished she could have received,” said Danny Carroll, a social conservative activist and Bachmann supporter in the state. “It would be a mistake to write Rick Santorum off; it would be inaccurate. You can’t have the kind of support and endorsements Sen. Santorum has received and not be a serious competitor.”
He is hiding under a rock somewhere and comes out occasionally..we need a strong candidate for his job and no one is coming forward...why does not Rick try to reclaim that job????? makes me wonder about Santorum...
give up this POTUS try and fight for your old Senate seat back, Bob Casey is weak...go for that position, cause you will not get President...
Get in the Senate and fight for Pennsylvania...that is a position you could win...
Rick Santorum running for ‘12 U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania makes sense, IMHO, but I’m not so sure that Rick can win such a race in politically unstable Pennsylvania. In fact, if Rick does end up as the final ‘12 GOP POTUS candidate, then I’m not so sure that Rick will be able to carry Pennsylvania during the November ‘12 general election!
A bad move, to be sure. But it doesn't wipe out the years of good he did serving in congress.
My biggest fear is electability. He couldn't even crack 40% in his reelection bid against the empty suit Bob Casey, the dumbest guy with a penis in the U.S. Senate.
If he can pull off an upset in Iowa, people may be willing to take a second look.
The fact he is George Bush 3.0
Today on his show, Rush gave quite a nice endorsement for Santorum. Not a endorsement in the traditional sense but very warm, kind words on his behalf.
Ditto.:)
>>>The only two things that can be held against him was his support (via pressure from the GOP establishment) of Specter over Toomey in the 2004 Republican primaries in Pa.
He’s explained that for anyone in Iowa that’s bothered to listen... yeah, it was to go along with the establishment... and - he’s said it was all about the judiciary committee... had Specter not been there, the appointments made during that time may not have succeeded - Roberts and Alito. I’m not going to quibble on that.
Well said!!
He has my support, not that it will likely matter by the time we vote here.
Mark Levin said that if he had to vote for someone in a Virginia primary today, the home of his “bunker”, it would be Bachmann or Santorum. And, he based that on solely on “character” or what someone will do (and it will happen) when the 2 AM call comes in. That’s good enough for me. A man with 7 kids has to have some strong compass or he’d go raving mad! Finally, I think Rick is doubling down in Iowa.
The fact that he threw Toomey UNDER the bus against Spector, that is the only bad thing about him.
All this praise being heaped upon BVP is pure BS. The wheels are coming off as it is being reported that VP tried a million dollar shake down but of course, he’s denying it but he’s also denying he asked Bachmann to drop out of the race. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/21/vander-plaats-reportedly-asked-santorum-camp-to-help-raise-money-to-promote-endorsement/
I know who I believe.
I agree with all you’re saying but Santorum may have some ‘splain to do over this BVP endorsement. I wouldn’t have wanted it if I were Santorum.
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