Posted on 12/13/2011 7:08:23 AM PST by RockinRight
A survey of 12 swing states that Barack Obama carried in 2008 now finds the president losing to both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich there.
USA Today-Gallup -- polling registered voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin -- found Obama trailing Romney 43-48, and Gingrich 45-48.
Because Obama is expected to hold the big states of California, New York and Illinois, he maintains a popular-vote advantage nationwide, where he leads Gingrich 50-44, and edges Romney 47-46.
But the Electoral College math would deliver the White House to Republicans if they can carry the swing states, as the USA Today-Gallup poll shows.
Even more heartening for the GOP is the poll's methodology. Surveys of "registered" tend to artificially inflate Democratic numbers. Scientific samplings of "likely voters" tend to produce more conservative, and accurate, outcomes.
I know us conservatives are hungry for a front-runner to appear but, the media and the Dems are hungrier because then they will be more able to focus their attacks. I love it that we have so many candidates in the GOP field and I think America has heard the media pundits call conservatives enough names (think O’Donnell, Palin, Angle, etc) that they are wise to the media’s ways and it has lost it’s effect.
I also think it’s in the conservative’s best interest to keep it looking like a close race to keep the Dems in check. If it looks like a blow out for the GOP, I do believe there is nothing from preventing the Dems from acting on a “scorched earth” policy. I also expect Gloria Allred to come forward with some “client” who has the “dirt” on whomever the GOP nominee is..
I have no such faith in new age hippies to protect the Won.
Moreover, it is likely we will win both MI and Penn.
Because, that’s the most likely outcome.
This is a shady way to cite citations. Saying that Newt is up in the battleground states, provides us little information.
He could be wayyy up in Florida, and behind in all the others, and that statement would still be true. The most likely arrangement (all else being equal), is to split the EVs. I leave that proof up to the reader. If you have 5 bins and 10 red socks and 10 blue socks, what’s the most likely arrangement for any bin? :)
Yeah, that 1916 election was a real hoot, and it is the right lesson.
Charles Hughes was nominated. Wilson won in a very, very tight election 277-254, over California that Hughes lost by 3,700 votes. Not as close as in 2000, (which was 500 votes), but still very, very close.
If people think that this is going to be an EASY task, Hughes was both Governor of New York AND a supreme court justice, and he still lost.
And it is likely he will lose some of his own Blue States as well.
The American People do not want Obama for 4 more years.
“Newt is leading in all of the swing states”
When aggregated together, yes. Each individual swing state? No. Depending on how they are aggregated and how they are distributed, it’s possible for him to be up only in Florida, and behind Obama everywhere else.
That doesn't even make any sense.
It states individual States.
No way Fl. or Ohio go to Obama.
People are deluding themselves if they think this is going to be an easy fight. Especially not when we’ve handicapped ourselves.
You’re asking me? That’s the poll you’re referring to...
“Where do you read that in the poll?
It states individual States.”
Read it again. It states the battleground states -as a whole-, not separately.
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