Moreover, it is likely we will win both MI and Penn.
Because, that’s the most likely outcome.
This is a shady way to cite citations. Saying that Newt is up in the battleground states, provides us little information.
He could be wayyy up in Florida, and behind in all the others, and that statement would still be true. The most likely arrangement (all else being equal), is to split the EVs. I leave that proof up to the reader. If you have 5 bins and 10 red socks and 10 blue socks, what’s the most likely arrangement for any bin? :)