[BenKenobi]

Because, that’s the most likely outcome.

This is a shady way to cite citations. Saying that Newt is up in the battleground states, provides us little information.

He could be wayyy up in Florida, and behind in all the others, and that statement would still be true. The most likely arrangement (all else being equal), is to split the EVs. I leave that proof up to the reader. If you have 5 bins and 10 red socks and 10 blue socks, what’s the most likely arrangement for any bin? :)

[fortheDeclaration]

From the report, it appears that Newt is leading in all of the swing states, that fact that the lead varies is irrelevant to the fact that Obama is not going to carry the same States he carried in the last election.

And it is likely he will lose some of his own Blue States as well.

The American People do not want Obama for 4 more years.