Posted on 12/09/2011 4:42:23 AM PST by blam
The Great Repression: The Impending Economic Collapse Of 2012-2022
By John F. Carlucci
December 8, 2011
Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In Part 1 of this series, Is This The Best Stock Market Indicator Ever?, I examined the technical indicator known as $OEXA200R, that is, the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 day moving average, found on StockCharts.com. The $OEXA200R can be thought of as a valuable early yellow light flashing 'bears ahead' or a confirmatory green light that we're really back in a bull market after a bear. It is an extremely accurate market timing and short term predictive tool for any investor.
But what of the long term trends in the market? What does the future hold over the next 2 or 5 or 20 years? Is there a predictive tool for that?
I believe there is.
In this article we will analyze the long term S&P chart developed by Doug Short (Figure 1), using it as a reference to "tease out" some very specific predictions of future trends. The estimates and scenarios are based on an unbiased interpretation of data derived from this chart. By following the cold data where it leads us, we arrive at some unnerving predictions which I will collectively refer to as The Great Repression.
Figure 1
Figure 1 illustrates the long term trend of the S&P from 1870 to present. It is inflation-adjusted and set on a log scale for clarity. Notice the red trend line and how the market regresses from bull and bear periods back to the historical trend.
Below the S&P graphic on Figure 1 is an illustration of S&P variance from trend. That is, the percentage the S&P skewed above or below the trend line at corresponding time points. For example, at the 1929 bull peak the S&P was at 82% variance above the trend line. In 1982, the S&P had fallen to minus 55% variance below the trend line."
An analysis of the chart (Figure 2) revels that the slopes from each bull top measured at the highest variance points in 1901, 1929 and 1965 to the beginning of the next bulls in 1920, 1949 and 1982 all measure exactly 34 degrees. Again, the start and end points for the slopes are determined by the variance tops indicated on the "Variance from trend" graphic, not the actual S&P tops.
Assuming the slopes could theoretically measure anywhere from 1 to 44 degrees (excluding the 45 degree vertical and 0 degree horizontal orientations), the probability of all three equaling 34 degrees is less than 1 in 79,000.
Figure two
Based on that data, one could make a reasonable statistical assumption that the slope for the current secular bear market beginning in 2000 would also follow the same 34 degree angle as the previous three bears. Overlaying that slope on the 2000 bull top would suggest that we are not yet half way through the present bear cycle.
But how much more "bear"is left?
(snip)
God will destroy anything we put between us and Him...governments, countries, worlds included..
Solar systems too?
“All The Worlds Are Yours Except Europa.”
Very interesting graphs. Thanks.
My parents were selling real estate at that time. My Mom kept talking about “first-time home-buyers” loans. Business always picked up when a new batch of them came out. Mom sold a lot of houses in those days. They made a lot of money. Now I know where it came from.
Silly Humans, time to start over......
Thank you for some compelling but ugly charts. I mean, child of Henry Waxman and Helen Thomas ugly.
It sure seems collapse is inevitable. I have no clue where the bulls are coming from. I am financially ignorant and untrained, but the areas above the curve sure need to be counterbalanced by corresponding areas beneath the curve, which means we are in for a crash and pain.
I always underestimate how long the government can manipulat things, but this can’t be fixed. A market crash just has to happen. These charts are pretty darn clear. I would love to see a chart of public debt overlaid.
They regenerate well after meltdown, its the outer realm anyway..who wants it that’s sane..smile..
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.