Posted on 10/08/2011 5:13:45 AM PDT by blam
The Hot New Theory About What Happened To The US Economy
Joe Weisenthal
Oct. 8, 2011, 6:27 AM
Something weird is happening with the economic data in September: It's okay!
Datapoint after datapoint screams: The economy is mediocre, but it's not collapsing.
For example...
* The September jobs report was a lot better than the August jobs report.
* Rail traffic is growing.
* Car sales were downright HOT in September.
* Retail sales? Check.
* Construction spending was fine too.
There was certainly some weak data, as things are not amazing, but the numbers haven't been heart-stopping the way some of the August numbers were (like that goose-egg jobs report, which later got revised higher).
So what's going on?
One theory that's clearly pretty hot: The economy this summer suffered a confidence shock with the debt ceiling crisis, causing an artificial slowdown.
There's a basis for this. A poll showed that the whole fiasco hit consumer confidence in the same way as Katrina and 9/11 did.
This table from Calculated Risk shows what, historically, how long it's taken to rebound from external shocks in consumer confidence.
Event Driven Declines in Consumer Sentiment
(Go to the site to view the chart)
So this is the hot new meme: The economy is okay, but we had a damaging freakout at an inopportune time but now we're recovering (knock on wood, anyway).
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Mail volume increased 3%. Changes of as little as .1% are SERIOUS ~
IMHO....there’s some truth to this. There are still Americans that can get by, make a buck and have a close enough to good life DESPITE the idiots in Washington that our economy is limping along. We are barely out of the last recession, but things are probably not going to crash and burn. That is NOT to say we are doing well, or that 4 more years of the big 0 won’t be enough to send us over the cliff. The best analogy I can come up with is from a Monty Python movie, where our economy is the guy yelling “I’m not quite dead yet”...and Barry is the son trying to toss us on the wagon.
Yup. I once had an engineer describe to me something being 'dead-nuts-on'. I couldn't help myself, I laughed out loud. (A good engineer always has a number, +-)
ISO ~ my eyes glaze over.
Oh dear Lord. “Low hanging fruit” is the current buzz phrase in my office. You’d think I we all worked in an orchard.
It’s not that there is a shortage of jobs, it’s more like there are too many people.
We need a program to reduce the number of people so that it matches the number of jobs. (/libtard think)
LOL! May I use that beautiful multi-syllabic monstrosity in my next memo?
One of the small pleasures I allow myself at work is to edit out all the cheerleading pom-pom waving boilerplate and b/s that infest the management memos which cascade into my office email every day.
The length of any given memo is usually reduced by 40-50 pct.
The calm before the storm.
A very big storm.
"A very big storm."
Yup...that's what many are saying.
Now, many are saying that were are already in a recovery and that things will be fine.
How can these opinions be so far apart?
Because one is the truth, and one is wishful thinking.
The economic fundamentals have not changed, either here or in Europe.
The dollar bubble and the government debt bubble are going to pop. And when they do, and the dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency and no one wants to buy our Treasuries, we are screwed.
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