Posted on 09/16/2011 11:23:42 AM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo
Before he entered his first debate as a presidential candidate, Texas Governor Rick Perry was the Republican frontrunner and held a modest lead in a hypothetical matchup against President Obama. Perry was the target for all the other candidates in the two most recent GOP debates, however, and he now trails the president by single digits.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Obama picking up 46% of the vote, while Perry earns support from 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) are either undecided or prefer another candidate. Two weeks ago, Perry was up by three. Three weeks ago, the president held a three-point edge over the governor. (To see question wording, click here.)
Now, Perry’s chief rival for the nomination, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, holds a three-point lead on the president. Another GOP hopeful, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, trails Obama by double digits. The fluctuation in Perry's, Romney's and Bachmann’s numbers comes as a Generic Republican maintains a steady lead over the president.
The president’s Job Approval ratings remain consistently in the low-to-mid 40s. As the election draws closer, Obama’s Job Approval will provide a good indication of his likely vote total. If his Job Approval rating is over 50% in November 2012, it will be difficult for any Republican to beat him. If his ratings move into the low 40s or below, it will be difficult for the president to win unless there is a major third-party candidate in the mix.
Perceptions of the economy are likely to play a significant role in shaping the president’s Job Approval ratings. Currently, Americans say their own finances are weaker than the day Obama took office and significantly weaker than in the fall of 2008.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 14-15, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Obama 46% Perry 39% Sep 14-15, 2011
Obama 46% Bachmann 33% Sep 12-13, 2011
Obama 40% Romney 43% Sep 10-11, 2011
Obama 39% Paul 38% Aug 15-16, 2011
Obama 50% Palin 33% Aug 11-12, 2011
Obama 42% Cain 35% Aug 23-24, 2011
Obama 48% Gingrich 30% June 24-25, 2011
Obama 44% Huntsman 28% July 2, 2011
Obama 45% Santorum 31% July 10-11, 2011
Perry trails Obama by 15 percentage points among women and barely leads among men. Perry trails among voters under 40, runs even among 40-somethings and leads among those 50 and older. It’s worth remembering that most voters over 40 voted against Obama in 2008.
Perry currently attracts just 71% of the Republican vote, while the president wins 85% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either party, the race is a toss-up.
In the race for the Republican nomination nationally, the latest national polling shows Perry on top followed by Romney and Bachmann. In Iowa, Perry is also ahead of his GOP rivals.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
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Romney’s not the guy to do it.
Oy vey.
Yes, I agree that any poll is worthless this far out, but it’s significant that Obama can’t even crack fifty percent. I think any of those three could beat Obama by a comfortable margin as it is now.
If Obama can’t get to 50%, he’s doomed.
The fact that any GOP contender is polling this close is very telling.
Most people have no idea who Rick Perry is. The GOP doesn’t even have a nominee yet, and they are still polling close to Barry.
It’s propaganda these polls. We see/hear what others think and we are to believe BO is beating out every candidate? The VERY worst president ever - LOL! It’s the same media that gave him to us.
>>> “ Poll must have ties to the Romney camp. “ <<<<
No, I don’t think so. If Ras says my candidate is down, then he is DOWN. However, it’s Rick or Romney and the forces on both sides of the aisle and the media all want Romney. Will this be easy for Rick as his campaign moves up the eastern seaboard into Romney country? No, mam. This will be a tight race to the nomination and a blood bath tight one in the general election.
Bush 1 polled better vs Carter than Reagan vs Carter in 1980. Romney can attract Dems, because he is one. The battle comes down to base erosion with Romney vs losing the ignorant middle with Perry. This poll cannot adequately take these important factors into consideration. Some likely voters are more likely than others.
Obama is in the low to mid 40’s against the Republican frontrunners, not a good place to be if you’re the incumbent. It looks like a reflection of his approval ratings.
The only “polls” I pay attention to are elections. There were two special election “polls” Tuesday night which say Obama is in big trouble, no matter who he faces.
They want Romney in there and will jerry rig the polls to get him there.
Carter led Reagan by a substantial margin until the day before the election.
'Nuff said
—It’s dangerous to a national political career to talk about the Social Security issue.—
I’m missing the connection here. Oh, and I disagree with the statement at this particular time in US history. I think the opposite is true.
Bachmann could beat Obama - in 2012. Paul probably could too.
LOLOLOL!
Go ahead, America, re-elect Obama.
Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin could conduct the poll it wouldn't matter, if it didn't show something like Sarah Palin winning the election 60% - 40% there would still be Freepers who would post here claiming Rush & Mark are sell outs or they oversampled Black Jewish Lesbians or something similar.
We had plenty of Perry supporters trusting Rasmussen last week, lecturing the rest of us that we should trust polls this far out from an election.
Rasmussen is bankable and history proves it. However, this is a snapshot as Romney has ramped up his RINO support machine and the media wants him, so it will be WAR for the nomination to go to the more conservative candidate, Perry.
What this really means is that our side has one “H” of a lot of work to do.
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