Posted on 09/16/2011 11:23:42 AM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo
Before he entered his first debate as a presidential candidate, Texas Governor Rick Perry was the Republican frontrunner and held a modest lead in a hypothetical matchup against President Obama. Perry was the target for all the other candidates in the two most recent GOP debates, however, and he now trails the president by single digits.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Obama picking up 46% of the vote, while Perry earns support from 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) are either undecided or prefer another candidate. Two weeks ago, Perry was up by three. Three weeks ago, the president held a three-point edge over the governor. (To see question wording, click here.)
Now, Perry’s chief rival for the nomination, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, holds a three-point lead on the president. Another GOP hopeful, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, trails Obama by double digits. The fluctuation in Perry's, Romney's and Bachmann’s numbers comes as a Generic Republican maintains a steady lead over the president.
The president’s Job Approval ratings remain consistently in the low-to-mid 40s. As the election draws closer, Obama’s Job Approval will provide a good indication of his likely vote total. If his Job Approval rating is over 50% in November 2012, it will be difficult for any Republican to beat him. If his ratings move into the low 40s or below, it will be difficult for the president to win unless there is a major third-party candidate in the mix.
Perceptions of the economy are likely to play a significant role in shaping the president’s Job Approval ratings. Currently, Americans say their own finances are weaker than the day Obama took office and significantly weaker than in the fall of 2008.
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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 14-15, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Obama 46% Perry 39% Sep 14-15, 2011
Obama 46% Bachmann 33% Sep 12-13, 2011
Obama 40% Romney 43% Sep 10-11, 2011
Obama 39% Paul 38% Aug 15-16, 2011
Obama 50% Palin 33% Aug 11-12, 2011
Obama 42% Cain 35% Aug 23-24, 2011
Obama 48% Gingrich 30% June 24-25, 2011
Obama 44% Huntsman 28% July 2, 2011
Obama 45% Santorum 31% July 10-11, 2011
Perry trails Obama by 15 percentage points among women and barely leads among men. Perry trails among voters under 40, runs even among 40-somethings and leads among those 50 and older. It’s worth remembering that most voters over 40 voted against Obama in 2008.
Perry currently attracts just 71% of the Republican vote, while the president wins 85% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either party, the race is a toss-up.
In the race for the Republican nomination nationally, the latest national polling shows Perry on top followed by Romney and Bachmann. In Iowa, Perry is also ahead of his GOP rivals.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
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Until the primaries are completed, the dust settles and the GOP candidate is determined - these poll results mean nothing - other than BO is in big trouble.
According to this “poll”, America is now officially a communist nanny state. I guess we’ll have to wait until 2012 to find out if it is actually true.
Have the ratios for Dem:Repub been adjusted or are they going off 2008 numbers? I really don’t believe these numbers. It’s not just the Obama/Perry matchup. Romney should be a whole lot more competitive, too.
This is not encouraging. Mitt Rmoney is running the strongest, but it’s impossible for me to have any enthusiasm for him.
Obama 46% Perry 39% Sep 14-15, 2011
Obama 46% Bachmann 33% Sep 12-13, 2011
Obama 40% Romney 43% Sep 10-11, 2011
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The only currently polled.
Poll must have ties to the Romney camp.
It’s weird how the percentage of idiots voting for the Kenyan is almost the same as the percentage of idiots who don’t pay income taxes. Probably just a coincidence.
This is not encouraging. Mitt Rmoney is running the strongest, but it’s impossible for me to have any enthusiasm for him.
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I see this as very encouraging. Obama is under 50%...which typically is death for an incumbent. Perry has time, much time, to walk back statement on social security...Incumbents usually perform right around their poll numbers against a generic candidate, which for Obama, consistently hover between 44-46%. Yes, Perry or Romney could blow it...but this is not a bad poll....
Have you tried nitrous oxide? :-)
That is exactly - and only - what this means.
This is a textbook case of “How to Lie with Statistics”.
Rasmussen is not to be trusted....
Et tu?
Anyone who is winning the polls now should be avoided like the plague.
It is absolutely INSANE to choose a candidate based on polls this far out from an election when one side doesn’t even have a chosen nominee.
Ignore the polls and choose the best candidate.
As much as I can’t stand Romney - he is our best bet by far.
You think Rasmussen’s in the tank for the establishment? I don’t want to think that. He’s always so accurate on election day.
The most significant thing here is that Obummer only gets 46%. For an incumbent, that’s a very bad sign.
my sole concern is ousting obama - and if romney is the guy to do it - I am on board.
At this point it’s all about name recognition and media influence.
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