Posted on 09/16/2011 11:23:42 AM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo
Before he entered his first debate as a presidential candidate, Texas Governor Rick Perry was the Republican frontrunner and held a modest lead in a hypothetical matchup against President Obama. Perry was the target for all the other candidates in the two most recent GOP debates, however, and he now trails the president by single digits.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Obama picking up 46% of the vote, while Perry earns support from 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) are either undecided or prefer another candidate. Two weeks ago, Perry was up by three. Three weeks ago, the president held a three-point edge over the governor. (To see question wording, click here.)
Now, Perry’s chief rival for the nomination, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, holds a three-point lead on the president. Another GOP hopeful, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, trails Obama by double digits. The fluctuation in Perry's, Romney's and Bachmann’s numbers comes as a Generic Republican maintains a steady lead over the president.
The president’s Job Approval ratings remain consistently in the low-to-mid 40s. As the election draws closer, Obama’s Job Approval will provide a good indication of his likely vote total. If his Job Approval rating is over 50% in November 2012, it will be difficult for any Republican to beat him. If his ratings move into the low 40s or below, it will be difficult for the president to win unless there is a major third-party candidate in the mix.
Perceptions of the economy are likely to play a significant role in shaping the president’s Job Approval ratings. Currently, Americans say their own finances are weaker than the day Obama took office and significantly weaker than in the fall of 2008.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 14-15, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Obama 46% Perry 39% Sep 14-15, 2011
Obama 46% Bachmann 33% Sep 12-13, 2011
Obama 40% Romney 43% Sep 10-11, 2011
Obama 39% Paul 38% Aug 15-16, 2011
Obama 50% Palin 33% Aug 11-12, 2011
Obama 42% Cain 35% Aug 23-24, 2011
Obama 48% Gingrich 30% June 24-25, 2011
Obama 44% Huntsman 28% July 2, 2011
Obama 45% Santorum 31% July 10-11, 2011
Perry trails Obama by 15 percentage points among women and barely leads among men. Perry trails among voters under 40, runs even among 40-somethings and leads among those 50 and older. It’s worth remembering that most voters over 40 voted against Obama in 2008.
Perry currently attracts just 71% of the Republican vote, while the president wins 85% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either party, the race is a toss-up.
In the race for the Republican nomination nationally, the latest national polling shows Perry on top followed by Romney and Bachmann. In Iowa, Perry is also ahead of his GOP rivals.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
LOL, he would! She probably terrifies him! I have never been able to figure out how a woman so feminine can terrify so many men, maybe it’s the gun LOL
I would vote for Joran Vandersloot over Obama if he could beat obama in 2012
We had one candidate with a chance to unite both the establishment and Tea Party wings of our party. He has been under relentless attack from the DNC and the GOP / Romney wing from the left, and from Paul and his supporters and the Palin supporters from the right.
It was inevitable his numbers would fall, and it was very easy to predict it would make Mitt Romney far more likely to be our nominee.
At the same time, although Perry has been badly damaged, I don't think he is dead yet. If he manages not to lose any more ground, he can still be our nominee.
If so, he would then be able to return fire, at Obama. I think the gap we see today would close quickly and (hopefully) decisively.
It is all predicated on him stabilizing quickly though. We'll see how he does.
Might be the gun...lol. She’s a good shot. Better than VP Cheney.
:)
Did that mean he thought it was unconstitutional? Many believe so but Perry's die-hard defenders deny it just as they dent he is for amnesty and every other liberal position that is part of his record.
Polling techniques are more reliable nowadays
Anybody that believes in the “science” of political polling is simply naive! And I say this regardless of where my candidate stands in any poll.
ALL the pollsters are either MSM or Rep est, there are no others, do not kid yourselves.
There are a couple things going on here... ALL the pollsters have an agenda, this is not even debatable!
While Ras is clearly with the Rep Est, he also is in a position where he wants to push a particular person just for his business purposes, to keep his company in the spot light.
However personally he is not for Perry to win the nomination, his choice is someone more moderate like Romney, however he will push Perry if it comes down to Perry Palin as the last 2 standing.
Now he pushed Bachmann at first as did ALL the pollsters, this was a joint effort by MSM/REP est working together to try and discourage Gov Palin who ALL the pollsters personally dislike.
They knew that Bachmann had no chance, that`s why Chris Matthews, Andrea Mitchell etc etc said how great she was in the debates.
Now they pushed Perry for the same reason, to try and discourage Gov Palin from running. However they also just enjoyed being able to manipulate the mindless masses by pushing anybody, but make no mistake they will not push Gov Palin, that is where they draw the line! They fear her, they honestly do, but they also just have a real hate for her.
This is why there is no “science” in political polling, because the pollsters can not keep their own bias out of their polling.
The last honest pollster was George Gallup, a wonderful Christian man and pioneer in polling, that is long gone from the scene unfortunately.
So now you will start to see the pollsters pull back from pushing Perry, however they still want to use their power to try and discourage Gov Palin, who will never lead in and MSM/Rep est polling, but can win the nomination and the WH without ever leading any of their polls at any time.
They may even revert back to pushing MB, but she makes it hard for them to pull that off? They may push Paul also.
I wish more Conservatives could see through the pollsters manipulated manufactured polls, but many here at FR by into it all???
Now they are averaging phony polls for goodness sake?? I do not even know where to start about how unscientific that is..
Even with the internet talk radio, MSM still controls the polls, and they still have a lot of power...WAKE UP PEOPLE
LLS
I think this is more than the issues Perry has raised. It’s his seeming inability to put together coherent explanations of his positions. His debate performances were dismal. I doubt many “undecided” voters watched, but I’m sure they heard clips and/or got feedback from commentators. Unless Perry can do better than this, he should not be the nominee.
LLS
—Historically the left has crushed the GOP on Social Security from Goldwater forward.—
Historically, every president elected in a year ending with zero died in office, before Reagan.
We are living in very different times today. Very different. HISTORICALLY different.
The only way Perry - or even Bachmann or most of the others - could be defeated by the democrat is if the democrat is someone other than Obama. Obama is done. Utterly and completely. Watch the events of the next few months.
I might think something is unconstitutional, while still understanding that the Supreme Court does not, and therefore my opinion is of limited value.
On the other hand, we have collected SS taxes from real people who had nothing to do with enacting the social security ponzie scheme. And while I have had one freeper tell me that it’s just too bad for those people, that they don’t deserve a penny back, tough luck and all that, I believe that the government does owe people who depended on a “promise” that isn’t really a promise and are now too old to really recover.
So it makes sense, and seems a reasonable thing even for a conservative, that we pledge to continue paying social security benefits to those who are retired or near retirement age, usually that is 50-55 depending on who is speaking.
Now, I wish past that point we could scrap it, not “mend it” — but even Sarah Palin has not joined that fight, and if SP isn’t ready to do it, no conservative is going to chance it. So while I agree with Fed Up that this would be the best thing to do, it is politically unfeasable.
You write books to say what should happen in a perfect world. You campaign on what you can accomplish in the real world. That isn’t a flaw in candidates, even Reagan didn’t push everything he had said he believed in all of his commentaries before becoming president.
I trust that of ALL the announced candidates, Perry will be the best when it comes to reforming social security. I say that because he is the only announced candidate who has said that in a perfect world it wouldn’t exist, so I know his philosophy is sound. He won’t eliminate it, but when he reforms it he will do so from the perspective of it being something that needs to be minimized, rather than say Romney, who appears to love it now and would probably try to make it pay better.
We certainly won’t be paying out a full “social security payment” to 20-year-olds. No way we’ll have enough workers paying in for that. So we better make sure they understand that.
What about the Birth Certificate? Um, Vandersloot's, that is.
—You clearly overestimate the intelligence of the American people ...—
You may actually be correct there. I certainly did it in 2008. The difference here, though, is that Im fully expecting Obama to completely unravel by this time next year. Also, Perry’s comments about SS were “vague” enough to allow him to steer the dialogue in any direction he chooses as the ebb and flow of popular consensus shifts.
We are having our candidates chosen for us...again.
Yeah, now Huntsman can take a sock off to count his supporters. Bob
Ha ha ha. That Huntsman is such an insult and I want to see Thad McCotter in a debate, not Huntsman.
I don’t like Perry at all. Romney is a flipper for sure - but Perry strikes me as a more arrogant, less restrained, less intelligent, and less likable GWB.
No thanks. i would take Ron Paul, Huntsamn, or Santorum over perry right now.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.