Posted on 08/30/2011 2:31:49 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
“HE COULDN’T EVEN PREDICT HIS OWN DEFEAT.”
A most excellent post!!!
These “keys” are subjective so this guy can claim he is right all the time just by modifying his keys.
The intended demoralizing message is: ABANDON ALL HOPE, THE GOP CAN’T WIN. PUBS, DON’T BOTHER VOTING.
But here's the key question to ask yourself: Can you name anyone -- a national figure, or a friend or acquaintance of yours -- who voted against Obama in 2008, but who will vote for him in 2012?
Inevitably, you're going to lose some supporters the second time around. That's not necessarily a problem for the incumbent if he picks up some supporters to offset those he loses. Where, exactly, are Obama's new voters going to come from?
We can come up with 13 “keys” why this TOOL is not to be believed!
No, he reads the NYT and watches the alphabet news.
What the critics are missing though is, first, that you have to compare things with how they were when past presidents failed to win election. Truman, Johnson, and Carter all had to deal with foreign policy messes that were worse than what we're seeing now. Johnson also had civil disturbances (i.e. riots) at home that outdid anything that's going on today. Ford had to bear the burden of the Nixon scandals that also outdid anything going on today, and Truman had a similar burden at a time when people were less jaded and cynical.
The other factor is that how we see things here is different from the picture the average voter gets from the media. Even if there are major failures or scandals, you can count on the press to cover for Obama for as long as they can.
So right now Obama comes out looking better than Carter did when he ran for reelection, if only because the Navy Seals took out bin Laden. And strange as it may seem, people were probably more fed up with Truman and Johnson when they were considering running for another term than they are with Obama right now.
The anomaly is the first President Bush. By some accounts he should have won reelection. That he didn't had to do with the economy, Perot, and the media.
Three factors like that could sink Obama. But he's got the media on his side and there's no third party bid in sight -- at least not one that could hurt Obama more than the Republicans. A bad economy alone may cost Obama the election, but that's by no means certain.
A lot can change in 14 months, but Lichtman's view is not absolutely absurd or wrong on its face.
I make no statement one way or the other about the wisdom of such a plan, but any such move would likely require the Gulf states to join Texas. Otherwise, the Gulf is indefensible.
Kinda reminds me of Pelosi, telling everyone she'll not lose the house majority...no way that could ever happen.
Oh, an unknown comic, I see.
I own a gunstore. There is a great amount of unrest. However, we civilized people do not manifest unrest in uncivilized ways. People are preparing for open conflict. Lots of people. Professionals, teachers, pastors, construction workers, mechanics, jewelers, secretaries, etc. The sleeping dragon is awakening, and it is pissed. Seething, in fact. I believe that the National Socialists will be quite surprised at the response that is being quietly prepared for them.
Has this country ever had a marxist suspect as a president to deal w/??? That’s one extraordinary variable lacking from this dude’s “keys”!
What about a BC-less president??? When people are still to this day wondering if this exposed marxist is really an American citizen after all or not, doesn’t that add an extraordinary variable to the mix?
Everything about this community agitator is extraordinary yet these guys are trying to measure him against past American incumbent presidents like any average Joe. Garbage in, garbage out!
Na-uh, not gonna happen. obama is toast no matter how they try to slice it!
“and the scandal-free nature of his administration.”
All thanks to sycophantic pressholes.
Excellent point.I don’t know anyone who has switched from disliking Obama to liking him. I know of several who are the opposite. The MSM hyping stories of “disappointed democrats” are BS. The people they interview are disappointed that Obama isn’t leftist enough. And that has to be a very small % of the population. Notice that Obama isn’t going after THAT demographic, he’s going to middle America. He knows that the average Joe is NOT impressed with him.
Personally I don't think it will work regardless. There are so many people who will try to oust him in 2012 that it will overcome the lukewarm support he enjoys from his base.
More left wing bullshit. The criminal MSM will read oija boards and tell us that obuma is omniscient. That left-wing Romney-lover allahpundit can shove it.
I feel the same way. The problem is what country to settle in. Got any suggestions?
This new learning amazes me, Professor Lichtman. Explain again how sheeps’ bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes.
” No scandals???? Is this guy been living under a rock??????”
Lots of scandals. Just that most Americans don’t know about them since they are not reported by the MSM.
Aw, pshaw. Thank you (humble hat tip).
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