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Great news: Service industry now slowing down, too
Hotair ^ | 08/03/2011 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 08/03/2011 1:34:40 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management reported a significant drop in its measure for manufacturing activity in a first glance at economic performance in the third quarter of 2011. Today, ISM follows up that report with another that shows another significant drop in non-manufacturing activity as their services index fell to a low not seen since February 2010. Reuters found this rather surprising:

The pace of growth in the services sector ticked down unexpectedly in July to the lowest level since February 2010, while the number of jobs created by the private sector also slowed, separate reports showed on Wednesday.

The Institute for Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.7 last month from 53.3 in June. The reading fell shy of economists’ forecasts for 53.6, according to a Reuters survey. …

“It is slightly weaker than expected, most of the key gauges were down. It looks like this confirms that we are in a bit of a soft patch here,” said Rudy Narvas, senior economist at Societe Generale in New York.

ISM considers this still a growth reading, albeit at a lower rate. But their respondents don’t see growth continuing for very much longer:

The NMI registered 52.7 percent in July, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 53.3 percent registered in June, and indicating continued growth at a slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 2.7 percentage points to 56.1 percent, reflecting growth for the 24th consecutive month and at a faster rate than in June. The New Orders Index decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 51.7 percent. The Employment Index decreased 1.6 percentage points to 52.5 percent, indicating growth in employment for the 11th consecutive month, but at a slower rate than in June. The Prices Index decreased 4.3 percentage points to 56.6 percent, indicating that prices increased at a slower rate in July when compared to June. According to the NMI, 13 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in July. Respondents’ comments remain mixed; however, for the most part they indicate that business conditions are flattening out.

The 13 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in July based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Educational Services; Information; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; and Wholesale Trade. The five industries reporting contraction in July are: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; and Construction.

Their employment index dropped as well after two months of mild increases. Supplier deliveries slowed for the third straight month, while backlogs, exports, and imports all turned negative. Of the industries reporting contraction in July, the most obvious is construction, which has been hammered for the last three years, while the most surprising might be health care and “social assistance.” Health care has been a growing industry even during the recession and supposed recovery, and the passage of ObamaCare made it seem like a lock for consistent growth.

With Friday’s jobless number pending, the employment index is perhaps the most interesting. The ISM service report shows a mildly positive figure, but lower than in June — when only 18,000 jobs got added to the economy. The ISM manufacturing report showed a steeper drop from June of 6.4 points to a figure slightly higher than the services report. Either way, it looks like another anemic hiring report will arrive Friday morning, or perhaps worse. The market expectations of 85,000 new jobs added seems hopelessly optimistic.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; jobs; recession; serviceindustry

1 posted on 08/03/2011 1:34:43 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

It will be truly unexpected, when the left and LSM does not use the term unexpected, for all bad economic news.


2 posted on 08/03/2011 1:38:15 PM PDT by Sea Parrot (Obama may not be a natural born citizen, but there is no denying that he is a natural born liar.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Sounds like “trickle down” economics to me - if the manufacturing sector isn’t working, they’re going to be making less use of the service sector - restaurants, etc.


3 posted on 08/03/2011 1:40:07 PM PDT by knittnmom (Save the earth! It's the only planet with chocolate!)
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To: knittnmom

4 posted on 08/03/2011 1:40:38 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: SeekAndFind
Not looking good for *The summer of recovery*.

What's a dictator to do now?

5 posted on 08/03/2011 1:43:23 PM PDT by The Cajun (Palin, Free Republic, Mark Levin, Rush, Hannity......Nuff said.)
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To: The Cajun

RE: What’s a dictator to do now?

COMMAND the economy to do better. After all, he is the Messiah, the One.


6 posted on 08/03/2011 1:45:57 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: knittnmom

At our house we have decided to skip vacation this year and we now only go out to eat about once a month. If other families are distressed like us, no wonder the service industry is smarting.


7 posted on 08/03/2011 1:48:06 PM PDT by raisincane (I'm an optimist...I think most people are half full of crap)
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To: knittnmom

Sounds like “trickle down” economics to me - if the manufacturing sector isn’t working, they’re going to be making less use of the service sector - restaurants, etc.


Maybe there is a ‘Help Desk’ in some other country we can call to find out what happened to our jobs.


8 posted on 08/03/2011 1:52:35 PM PDT by ex-snook ("Above all things, truth beareth away the victory")
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To: SeekAndFind

bump.


9 posted on 08/03/2011 2:00:12 PM PDT by ken21 (ruling class dem + rino progressives -- destroying america for 150 years.)
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To: ex-snook
santa outsourced to bangalore india
10 posted on 08/03/2011 2:15:03 PM PDT by algernonpj (He who pays the piper . . .)
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To: SeekAndFind
we are in a bit of a soft patch here

Ah, so that's what they call The Great Depression in Obamaworld.

11 posted on 08/03/2011 2:28:14 PM PDT by Scott from the Left Coast
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To: algernonpj

Good One!


12 posted on 08/03/2011 2:31:17 PM PDT by ex-snook ("Above all things, truth beareth away the victory")
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To: SeekAndFind
Not to worry, the liberals can always resort to their fallback position:

"Blame Bush."

13 posted on 08/03/2011 2:35:45 PM PDT by Realman30 ("I've already made a donation to Haiti. It's called taxes". . . . El Rushbo.)
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To: SeekAndFind
The pace of growth in the services sector ticked down unexpectedly in July to the lowest level since February 2010

Drink!!

14 posted on 08/03/2011 2:44:00 PM PDT by Gritty (Compromise that is not a solution is a waste of time. We either save this country or we do not-Rubio)
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To: Sea Parrot

We are in a total news blackout.

CNN, MSNBC, even FNC, (who is cbs?)

are all going dark on any and all negative news that hurts obama.

we can no longer trust them since they have abandoned thier free press duties for a shrimp cocktail.


15 posted on 08/03/2011 2:54:56 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: raisincane

Yep. We don’t go out as often as we used to.


16 posted on 08/03/2011 2:56:24 PM PDT by knittnmom (Save the earth! It's the only planet with chocolate!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Geez, when we can’t even make hamburgers for each other, we’re really in trouble.


17 posted on 08/03/2011 3:56:58 PM PDT by BfloGuy (The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment. -- L. Von Mises)
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