Tropical Storm Don

NHC NOAA ^ | 27 July 2011 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Don has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Current forecast track indicates Texas should receive much needed precipitation. Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Don.

Public Advisories

Tropical Discussion

Buoy Data NW GOM

[GrouchoTex]

My computer glitched and I double posted. It’s already happening! LOL

[dirtboy]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1858

The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center’s initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.

[kingu]

I know there's still a lot of dialup out there, and FreeRepublic is a favorite as there's not a lot of junk on each page. But of more general import, I know of hurricane chasers and others who read these threads on their cell phones and in rural areas that means slow like dialup speeds.

And if you're in your car, keeping up to date while you evac, an uncluttered thread really helps. There are places like Eastern WX which has great threads full of multimedia animations and massive photos.

[RGVTx]

I knew it had to be you when you mentioned the hurricane dog. LOL! Good to see you, Pebcak. Now where is our Brownsville hurricane buddy?

[eastforker]

And sometimes they stall for no apparent reason and build intensity.

[dirtboy]

Here is the timeline for Alicia between TS formation and landfall:

08/15 18 GMT 27.2 91.0 45 1006 Tropical Storm
08/16 00 GMT 27.1 91.5 50 1005 Tropical Storm
08/16 06 GMT 27.0 92.0 60 1004 Tropical Storm
08/16 12 GMT 27.1 92.4 65 1002 Tropical Storm
08/16 18 GMT 27.3 92.8 70 998 Tropical Storm
08/17 00 GMT 27.4 93.3 75 991 Category 1 Hurricane
08/17 06 GMT 27.7 93.7 80 987 Category 1 Hurricane
08/17 12 GMT 27.9 94.2 85 983 Category 1 Hurricane
08/17 18 GMT 28.1 94.5 105 974 Category 2 Hurricane
08/18 00 GMT 28.4 94.8 110 969 Category 2 Hurricane
08/18 06 GMT 28.9 95.0 115 963 Major Hurricane

Don has a similar timeframe as it approches Texas.

[dirtboy]

The model runs we will see tomorrow morning will give us a much better idea of what to expect. All of the models so far have been off an invest, not a defined cyclone.

[LasVegasMac]

Nautinurse has been generously administering FR PSAs on hurricanes since.. forever. It is her judgment we will adhere to.

Here here!

Please see my #95.

Will be watching..........

[GrouchoTex]

I like the Weather Underground site for storm coverage. Lots of good info there.

[stevio]

Prayin’ for ya Brother.

[dirtboy]

Yeah, they have good ease of use and historical archives. Here is the map for Alicia (1983) - it doesn't take a whole lotta Gulf to blow up a major hurricane:

[GrouchoTex]

But what you have posted, that is 3 days over water. Don is supposed to be here by Friday night. 2 days from now. I guess time will tell. Obviously, the longer it’s out there........

[LA Woman3]

Thanks for the ping!!

[dirtboy]

Here is a good historical comparison to Don, although it was earlier in the season - this caught folks by surprise as they were not expecting a hurricane at landfall:

[dirtboy]

Don is supposed to be here by Friday night. 2 days from now.

48 hours from TS formation Alicia was a Cat 2.

[LA Woman3]

New Texas rain gauge.

[dirtboy]

And also realize the NHC admits they have a much harder time with intensity than they do with track. I just don’t see how this storm doesn’t make at least Cat 1 - the Gulf is warm, the air is humid and the shear is low. We’ll get a better picture tomorrow morn, but folks along the coast should be running through their checklists tonight.

[txhurl]

Excellent points and reason to keep the ‘rain porn’ off the thread.

**Not into porn at all but I understand the phrase!**

[West Texas Chuck]

Oh, now, that is funny! But sad at the same time.

I’m just hoping we get something in the central TX area. Lakes here in the north are at around 80% so we are OK for a while, but my peeps in the Hill Country and west of there are hurting bad.

I’m hoping for landfall around Corpus, then north, and then east. That dog will hunt.

[re_nortex]

I know there's still a lot of dialup out there, and FreeRepublic is a favorite as there's not a lot of junk on each page.

And that's precisely what attracted me to FreeRrepublic right after 9/11. A colleague of mine at church told me that FR was the "goto" source for breaking news about Muslim terrorism for those of us using dialup (all of 9600 bps in my case).

I finally entered the 21st Century in terms of throughput in January 2010 with a cable modem. Nevertheless, the clean, uncluttered look and feel (along with the absence of popups, JavaScript and needless eye candy) of FreeRepublic still makes it my leading source for news a decade later. Content is truly king here thanks to John and Jim.