Posted on 07/12/2011 8:27:08 PM PDT by BAW
Follow the results on the link. Refresh page for current results. The polls closed at 8 PM west coast time.
Republican Craig Huey has a chance to pull off an upset election if enough registered republicans get to the polls.
With 2.68% of the precincts reporting:
JANICE HAHN (D) 21,365 54.24%
CRAIG HUEY (R) 18,025 45.76%
One can only hope, but this is CA.
This is going to be a tough one to pull off with no third party candidate to take from the Dem. We should have put up a Communist Party USA candidate to take a third of the votes from Hahn.
I don’t think enough people in that district have had enough of the dimoKKKRATS yet. Janice Hahn has a lot of name recognition. This would be a big upset if Craig was to win.
If the Dems don’t win, they will just “find” some lost ballot boxes on the Indian reservation.
As I posted on another thread, I found this piece of info: “A poll conducted by the Daily Kos and Services Employees International Union shortly before the July 2011 election had Hahn in the lead over Huey by 8 points, (52 percent to 44 percent) with 4 percent undecided.
If Hahn can on muster and 8 point lead in a a Daily Kos/SEIU poll, I think Hahn has a shot
I wonder if the vote so far is the mail-in balloting counted earlier. According to the website there’s 267 precincts with 342,000 voters registered. Yet with 2.68% of precincts reported they have about 12% of registered voters already voting.
I’d take a baseline of the 3,340 difference in favor of the Dem, figure that was the early vote, and watch the difference for a while. Maybe Republicans are more energized and will do more same-day voting?
Of course, everything I’m speculating on above could be wrong.
I have zero expectations for any election in NY or CA anymore. Both are lost causes. If we somehow grabbed this seat, it would be an impressive feat because voters in these two states continue to be in ostrich mode. Even states like Wisconsin, Michigan and PA have made near 180s in the past year. Hell, Massachusetts replaced Kennedy with a Republican. Still, CA and NY love their libs.
bump for later here on the east coast....
half hour later, the LA County Clerk’s site still shows only 2.68 reporting. grrrrrrrrrrr.
Would the mail in be pro-rat?
This depends. If they are absentee ballots from across the district, it would mean one thing (bad news for the Rep.), however if they were limited to one geographic area and that was particularly lib Democrat, then the G.O.P. guy could just pull even believe it or not. I just dont know what the 2.6% of the vote in represents at this point. And their posting of the results sure is going slow, so that would add some skepticism to the mix. Regardles, if the GOP loses even by less than say 5% gap, he ought to give somewhat of a national victory speech, declare the Tea Party can bring out such kinds of anti-Obama votes in such heavily Democrat districts, and of course assail the mainline GOP if in any way they were lukewarm in their support.
>>Would the mail in be pro-rat?<<
I’m pretty sure now that most of that 39,000 votes initially counted was mail-in. On one site I read that there were 42,000 or so cast by mail, so it looks like the mail-in broke for the Dems.
The part I don’t understand is that somewhere else I read that Dem mail-ins were only running about 2% stronger than Republican mail-ins. I’m guessing that, since registration is known, they could tell how many Dems and how many Reps had sent ballots back in by mail, even though they hadn’t been opened yet. That doesn’t explain the 8% difference so far though, unless Independent mail-ins broke for Dems?
TX. I am going to be up lat. I will watch it. How do you think it will go?
I think it’s a real stretch to expect a Republican to get elected there, so if he wins or even comes close it will be an indication that Republicans are more eager to vote than Democrats. I don’t see any particular reason that a lot of Registered Dems should vote for the Republican. They’ll vote Dem reflexively. And I also don’t know how many of the registered voters are non-declared (or whatever CA calls Independents).
If Huey wins though it will be one hell of an upset.
AND it would come at an EXCELLENT time for our country during these damned “budget talks”.
I know. I thought California was Liberal Utopia. How could a Republican win a RAT district there? But it is worth watching. Even if it closer than usual it might be a tell.
I was trying to find results. They appear to be late. Maybe the RATS are worried and trying to manufacture some votes.
Finally got some more results in, but Hahn’s lead is now 3,433 votes up from 3,340. 10 of precincts reported.
BMP for later read and use the link to find out the results...
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