Would the mail in be pro-rat?
This depends. If they are absentee ballots from across the district, it would mean one thing (bad news for the Rep.), however if they were limited to one geographic area and that was particularly lib Democrat, then the G.O.P. guy could just pull even believe it or not. I just dont know what the 2.6% of the vote in represents at this point. And their posting of the results sure is going slow, so that would add some skepticism to the mix. Regardles, if the GOP loses even by less than say 5% gap, he ought to give somewhat of a national victory speech, declare the Tea Party can bring out such kinds of anti-Obama votes in such heavily Democrat districts, and of course assail the mainline GOP if in any way they were lukewarm in their support.
>>Would the mail in be pro-rat?<<
I’m pretty sure now that most of that 39,000 votes initially counted was mail-in. On one site I read that there were 42,000 or so cast by mail, so it looks like the mail-in broke for the Dems.
The part I don’t understand is that somewhere else I read that Dem mail-ins were only running about 2% stronger than Republican mail-ins. I’m guessing that, since registration is known, they could tell how many Dems and how many Reps had sent ballots back in by mail, even though they hadn’t been opened yet. That doesn’t explain the 8% difference so far though, unless Independent mail-ins broke for Dems?