Look like the Dragon is going to have a recession sometimes soon.
Posted on 07/09/2011 12:34:14 PM PDT by lbryce
The moment of truth seems to be coming closer by the minute. China will become the world's largest economy by 2050, according to HSBC. No, it's 2040, say analysts at Deutsche Bank. Try 2030, the World Bank tells us. Goldman Sachs points to 2020 as the year of reckoning, and the IMF declared several weeks ago that China's economy will push past America's in 2016. There's probably someone out there who thinks China became the world's largest economy five years ago.
In an interview with WSJ's John Bussey, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer insists that for China to become the economic powerhouse it is predicted to become in this century, the Chinese must fundamentally restructure their economy.
But let's not get carried away. There's a good deal of turmoil simmering beneath the surface of China's miracle. Consider these recent snapshots:
• In Hunan, farmers pushed off their land by aggressive property developers discover that local authorities are not on their side. A farmer sets himself on fire, and protests spread quickly from town to town.
• A chemical spill into a Chinese river cuts off water supplies to Harbin, a city of four million people, sparking public fury.
• In Inner Mongolia, a Han Chinese truck driver kills a local herdsman in a hit-and-run accident, and ethnic unrest flares for days.
• Rioting in Xinjiang province spins out of control, forcing a state Internet shutdown across an area three times the size of California.
• In the coastal city of Xintang, security guards sent to break up a protest by migrant workers push a pregnant woman to the ground, igniting a firestorm that only paramilitary forces in armored personnel carriers can handle.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
The obsequious romancing of China as imminent master of the universe is getting a bit long in the tooth. It may very well be that this emperor up to a point has no clothes.
Well, if central planning has failed everywhere else, and is showing every sign of failing here, we ought not be surprised that it fails there too. Most attribute China’s rise to their inclusion of capitalism into their society but the planners are still there planning.
The real date China becomes the world’s largest economy: Never
Look like the Dragon is going to have a recession sometimes soon.
They’ll find out, just as we have, that being a “superpower” ain’t all it’s cracked up to be.
The old western movie cliche about being the fastest gun, everybody wants a piece of you.
I think the greatest threat to our republic has been the fall of the USSR, since that left open a vacuum that has tempted many to empire. With the PNAC being but one of many tumescent at the thought of being the sole, or at least dominant, superpower.
Likewise, the Chinese have had very powerful empires before, but as with all but the Romans, could not hold it for more than a couple of generations at most (distinguishing between “empire” and continuity of government with merely the name of such).
I think the quote, Chinese in origination, was something to the effect that getting onto the tiger’s back was not the trick, the difficult part being to get OFF :-)
China is not really a country but an aggregation of ethnic nation-states held together by the strongest warlord. In modern times; Sun Yat sen, Chang Kai Shek and the Kuomintang, Mao Tse Tung and the commies, Sooner or later, there will be an uprising of such power that the central government will be forced to stop trying to enforce it’s will and the “Peoples Republic of China” will shrink and wither.
China has to overthrow the revolution and build a new type of government just like the Soviet Union was pushed aside and Russia returned to being Russia. I expect China to do it before too much longer but there’s really no way to know whether it will be as violence free as the collapse of the SU was. I personally think there will be a period when different parts of the country would contend with each other to the point of near or outright warlords but I doubt many other people see it that way. At any rate, I think they’ve got to completely reorganize before they can be a superpower.
If the Chinese are eating our lunch it's because we let them, and we should be very concerned that communist China has a better business environment than the U.S.A.
They passed the Japanese economy because it stood still for 20 years. That was probably less to be expected than Chinese growth.
You owe me a new keyboard!
. . . would you like one made in china or, oh wait.....
America is not really a country but an aggregation of nation-states held together by the strong Federal Government. In modern times; Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson, Barack Obama and the commies, Sooner or later, there will be an uprising of such power that the central government will be forced to stop trying to enforce it’s will and the “United State of America” will shrink and wither.
Fixed it for you
China is going to collapse for over four years now, even though so many business and political globalists have made sure that it won’t.
How come? Did I say something funny, or are you so mad about the Chinese eating our lunch that you smashed your keyboard? In that case, the Chinese owe you a new keyboard, and will be happy to make one for you.
I fear you’re correct.
Considering the "phantom cities," the endless make-work projects which may not be up to standards (e.g. the apartment building which tipped over, the "world longest suspension bridge" which had bolts missing when it opened, the Three Gorges Dam), the lack of engineering (the car crash tests where the German engineers performing the test can be heard laughing at the end), the lack of intellectual property rights (e.g. Fellowes shredders having their intellectual property stolen), etc. tend to undermine the claims of supremacy.
And they don't have long, either, before the demographic bomb set up by the one-child policy really screws them up.
Cheers!
We're looking at a demographic time bomb of our own. Who do you think will be the majority once the baby boomers are dead? We don't have some magic destiny always to be Number One just because our name is USA. You have to work to be number one and the Chinese are working. Did I forget to mention we're broke?
I don't worry about the Chinese passing us. I worry about Brazil and South Korea and maybe even Russia passing us. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
It's been the Gramscian dream of destroying the US by undermining us, then attacking from the outside and the inside at the same time...
But Barack Obama was over reaching.
Cheers!
What about the French, British and German economies? You guys underestimate the Chinese at your peril. There are similarities between the Chinese and the Japanese, but the Chinese are much less respectful of authority and in many ways more open to new ideas than the Japanese.
Compare the number of Western companies permitted to operate in China with the number in Japan.
Compare the demographic implosion of Japan with China’s coming demographic implosion with their 1 child policy, now that their economy is reaching the point where thy won’t be able to make it on exports alone. BTW, the other economies you mention all have the same problem as well. The US is not far behind. If you think this is not a problem , ask yourself why the Russian government and the French government pay couples to have children.
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