An Alternate Look at Handgun Stopping Power

Buckeye Firearms Association ^ | 8 July,2011 | Greg Ellifritz

[marktwain]

I've been interested in firearm stopping power for a very long time. I remember reading Handguns magazine back in the late 1980s when Evan Marshall was writing articles about his stopping power studies. When Marshall's first book came out in 1992, I ordered it immediately, despite the fact that I was a college student and really couldn't afford its $39 price tag. Over the years I bought all of the rest of Marshall's books as well as anything else I could find on the subject. I even have a first edition of Gunshot Injuries by Louis Lagarde published in 1915. Are any of these better than another?

Every source I read has different recommendations. Some say Marshall's data is genius. Some say it is statistically impossible. Some like big heavy bullets. Some like lighter, faster bullets. There isn't any consensus. The more I read, the more confused I get.

One thing I remember reading that made a lot of sense to me was an article by Massad Ayoob. He came out with his own stopping power data around the time Marshall published Handgun Stopping Power. In the article, Ayoob took his critics to task. He suggested that if people didn't believe his data, they should collect their own and do their own analysis. That made sense to me. So that's just what I did. I always had a slight problem with the methodology of Marshall and Sanow's work. For consistency purposes, they ONLY included hits to the torso and ONLY included cases where the person was hit with just a single round. Multiple hits screwed up their data, so they excluded them. This lead to an unrealistically high stopping power percentage, because it factored out many of the cases where a person didn't stop! I wanted to look at hits anywhere on the body and get a realistic idea of actual stopping power, no matter how many hits it took to get it. So I started collecting data.

Over a 10-year period, I kept track of stopping power results from every shooting I could find. I talked to the participants of gunfights, read police reports, attended autopsies, and scoured the newspapers, magazines, and Internet for any reliable accounts of what happened to the human body when it was shot.

I documented all of the data I could; tracking caliber, type of bullet (if known), where the bullet hit and whether or not the person was incapacitated. I also tracked fatalities, noting which bullets were more likely to kill and which were not. It was an exhaustive project, but I'm glad I did it and I'm happy to report the results of my study here.

Before I get to the details, I must give a warning. I don't have any dog in this fight! I don't sell ammo. I'm not being paid by any firearm or ammunition manufacturer. I carry a lot of different pistols for self defense. Within the last 2 weeks, I've carried a .22 magnum, a .380 auto, a .38 spl revolver, 3 different 9mm autos and a .45 auto. I don't have an axe to grind. If you are happy with your 9mm, I'm happy for you. If you think that everyone should be carrying a .45 (because they don't make a .46), I'm cool with that too. I'm just reporting the data. If you don't like it, take Mr. Ayoob.s advice...do a study of your own.

A few notes on terminology...

Since it was my study, I got to determine the variables and their definitions. Here's what I looked at:

- Number of people shot

- Number of rounds that hit

- On average, how many rounds did it take for the person to stop his violent action or be incapacitated? For this number, I included hits anywhere on the body. To be considered an immediate incapacitation, I used criteria similar to Marshall's. If the attacker was striking or shooting the victim, the round needed to immediately stop the attack without another blow being thrown or shot being fired. If the person shot was in the act of running (either towards or away from the shooter), he must have fallen to the ground within five feet.

I also excluded all cases of accidental shootings or suicides. Every shot in this study took place during a military battle or an altercation with a criminal.

- What percentage of shooting incidents resulted in fatalities. For this, I included only hits to the head or torso.

- What percentage of people were not incapacitated no matter how many rounds hit them

- Accuracy. What percentage of hits was in the head or torso. I tracked this to check if variations could affect stopping power. For example, if one caliber had a huge percentage of shootings resulting in arm hits, we may expect that the stopping power of that round wouldn’t look as good as a caliber where the majority of rounds hit the head.

- One shot stop percentage - number of incapacitations divided by the number of hits the person took. Like Marshall's number, I only included hits to the torso or head in this number.

- Percentage of people who were immediately stopped with one hit to the head or torso

Here are the results.

.25ACP

# of people shot - 68

# of hits - 150

% of hits that were fatal - 25%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 2.2

% of people who were not incapacitated - 35%

One-shot-stop % - 30%

Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 62%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 49%

.22 (short, long and long rifle)

# of people shot - 154

# of hits - 213

% of hits that were fatal - 34%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 1.38

% of people who were not incapacitated - 31%

One-shot-stop % - 31%

Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 76%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 60%

.32 (both .32 Long and .32 ACP)

# of people shot - 25

# of hits - 38

% of hits that were fatal - 21%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 1.52

% of people who were not incapacitated - 40%

One-shot-stop % - 40%

Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 78%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 72%

.380 ACP

# of people shot - 85

# of hits - 150

% of hits that were fatal - 29%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 1.76

% of people who were not incapacitated - 16%

One-shot-stop % - 44%

Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 76%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 62%

.38 Special

# of people shot - 199

# of hits - 373

% of hits that were fatal - 29%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 1.87

% of people who were not incapacitated - 17%

One-shot-stop % - 39%

Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 76%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 55%

9mm Luger

# of people shot - 456

# of hits - 1121

% of hits that were fatal - 24%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 2.45

% of people who were not incapacitated - 13%

One-shot-stop % - 34%

Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 74%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 47%

.357 (both magnum and Sig)

# of people shot - 105

# of hits - 179

% of hits that were fatal - 34%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 1.7

% of people who were not incapacitated - 9%

One-shot-stop % - 44%

Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 81%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 61%

.40 S&W

# of people shot - 188

# of hits - 443

% of hits that were fatal - 25%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 2.36

% of people who were not incapacitated - 13%

One-shot-stop % - 45%

Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 76%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 52%

.45 ACP

# of people shot - 209

# of hits - 436

% of hits that were fatal - 29%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 2.08

% of people who were not incapacitated - 14%

One-shot-stop % - 39%

Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 85%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 51%

.44 Magnum

# of people shot - 24

# of hits - 41

% of hits that were fatal - 26%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 1.71

% of people who were not incapacitated - 13%

One-shot-stop % - 59%

Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 88%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 53%

Rifle (all Centerfire)

# of people shot - 126

# of hits - 176

% of hits that were fatal - 68%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 1.4

% of people who were not incapacitated - 9%

One-shot-stop % - 58%

Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 81%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 80%

Shotgun (All, but 90% of results were 12 gauge)

# of people shot - 146

# of hits - 178

% of hits that were fatal - 65%

Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 1.22

% of people who were not incapacitated - 12%

One-shot-stop % - 58%

Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 84%

% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 86%

Discussion

I really would have liked to break it down by individual bullet type, but I didn't have enough data points to reach a level of statistical significance. Getting accurate data on nearly 1800 shootings was hard work. I couldn't imagine breaking it down farther than what I did here. I also believe the data for the .25, .32 and .44 magnum should be viewed with suspicion. I simply don't have enough data (in comparison to the other calibers) to draw an accurate comparison. I reported the data I have, but I really don't believe that a .32 ACP incapacitates people at a higher rate than the .45 ACP!

One other thing to look at is the 9mm data. A huge number (over half) of 9mm shootings involved ball ammo. I think that skewed the results of the study in a negative manner. One can reasonable expect that FMJ ammo will not stop as well as a state of the art expanding bullet. I personally believe that the 9mm is a better stopper than the numbers here indicate, but you can make that decision for yourself based on the data presented.

Some interesting findings:

I think the most interesting statistic is the percentage of people who stopped with one shot to the torso or head. There wasn't much variation between calibers. Between the most common defensive calibers (.38, 9mm, .40, and .45) there was a spread of only eight percentage points. No matter what gun you are shooting, you can only expect a little more than half of the people you shoot to be immediately incapacitated by your first hit.

The average number of rounds until incapacitation was also remarkably similar between calibers. All the common defensive calibers required around 2 rounds on average to incapacitate. Something else to look at here is the question of how fast can the rounds be fired out of each gun. The .38 SPL probably has the slowest rate of fire (long double action revolver trigger pulls and stout recoil in small revolvers) and the fewest rounds fired to get an incapacitation (1.87). Conversely the 9mm can probably be fired fastest of the common calibers and it had the most rounds fired to get an incapacitation (2.45). The .40 (2.36) and the .45 (2.08) split the difference. It is my personal belief that there really isn't much difference between each of these calibers. It is only the fact that some guns can be fired faster than others that causes the perceived difference in stopping power. If a person takes an average of 5 seconds to stop after being hit, the defender who shoots a lighter recoiling gun can get more hits in that time period. It could be that fewer rounds would have stopped the attacker (given enough time) but the ability to fire more quickly resulted in more hits being put onto the attacker. It may not have anything to do with the stopping power of the round.

Another data piece that leads me to believe that the majority of commonly carried defensive rounds are similar in stopping power is the fact that all four have very similar failure rates. If you look at the percentage of shootings that did not result in incapacitation, the numbers are almost identical. The .38, 9mm, .40, and .45 all had failure rates of between 13% and 17%.

Some people will look at this data and say "He's telling us all to carry .22s". That's not true. Although this study showed that the percentages of people stopped with one shot are similar between almost all handgun cartridges, there's more to the story. Take a look at two numbers: the percentage of people who did not stop (no matter how many rounds were fired into them) and the one-shot-stop percentage. The lower caliber rounds (.22, .25, .32) had a failure rate that was roughly double that of the higher caliber rounds. The one-shot-stop percentage (where I considered all hits, anywhere on the body) trended generally higher as the round gets more powerful. This tells us a couple of things...

In a certain (fairly high) percentage of shootings, people stop their aggressive actions after being hit with one round regardless of caliber or shot placement. These people are likely NOT physically incapacitated by the bullet. They just don't want to be shot anymore and give up! Call it a psychological stop if you will. Any bullet or caliber combination will likely yield similar results in those cases. And fortunately for us, there are a lot of these "psychological stops" occurring. The problem we have is when we don't get a psychological stop. If our attacker fights through the pain and continues to victimize us, we might want a round that causes the most damage possible. In essence, we are relying on a "physical stop" rather than a "psychological" one. In order to physically force someone to stop their violent actions we need to either hit him in the Central Nervous System (brain or upper spine) or cause enough bleeding that he becomes unconscious. The more powerful rounds look to be better at doing this.

One other factor to consider is that the majority of these shootings did NOT involve shooting through intermediate barriers, cover or heavy clothing. If you anticipate having to do this in your life (i.e. you are a police officer and may have to shoot someone in a car), again, I would lean towards the larger or more powerful rounds.

What I believe that my numbers show is that in the majority of shootings, the person shot merely gives up without being truly incapacitated by the bullet. In such an event, almost any bullet will perform admirably. If you want to be prepared to deal with someone who won't give up so easily, or you want to be able to have good performance even after shooting through an intermediate barrier, I would skip carrying the "mouse gun" .22s, .25s and .32s.

Now compare the numbers of the handgun calibers with the numbers generated by the rifles and shotguns. For me there really isn't a stopping power debate. All handguns suck! If you want to stop someone, use a rifle or shotgun!

What matters even more than caliber is shot placement. Across all calibers, if you break down the incapacitations based on where the bullet hit you will see some useful information.

Head shots = 75% immediate incapacitation Torso shots = 41% immediate incapacitation Extremity shots (arms and legs) = 14% immediate incapacitation.

No matter which caliber you use, you have to hit something important in order to stop someone!

Conclusion

This study took me a long time and a lot of effort to complete. Despite the work it took, I'm glad I did it. The results I got from the study lead me to believe that there really isn't that much difference between most defensive handgun rounds and calibers. None is a death ray, but most work adequately...even the lowly .22s. I've stopped worrying about trying to find the "ultimate" bullet. There isn't one. And I've stopped feeling the need to strap on my .45 every time I leave the house out of fear that my 9mm doesn't have enough "stopping power." Folks, carry what you want. Caliber really isn't all that important.

Take a look at the data. I hope it helps you decide what weapon to carry. No matter which gun you choose, pick one that is reliable and train with it until you can get fast accurate hits. Nothing beyond that really matters!

Greg Ellifritz is the full time firearms and defensive tactics training officer for a central Ohio police department. He holds instructor or master instructor certifications in more than 75 different weapon systems, defensive tactics programs and police specialty areas. Greg has a master's degree in Public Policy and Management and is an instructor for both the Ohio Peace Officer's Training Academy and the Tactical Defense Institute. He can be reached at Greg1095@yahoo.com

[UnwashedPeasant]

same data in table format

	25ACP	.22 (short, long and long rifle)	.32 (both .32 Long and .32 ACP)	.380 ACP	.38 Special	9mm Luger	.357 (both magnum and Sig)	.40 S&W	.45 ACP	.44 Magnum	Rifle (all Centerfire)	Shotgun (All, but 90% of results were 12 gauge)
# of people shot	68	154	25	85	199	456	105	188	209	24	126	146
# of hits	150	213	38	150	373	1121	179	443	436	41	176	178
% of hits that were fatal	25%	34%	21%	29%	29%	24%	34%	25%	29%	26%	68%	65%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation	2.2	1.38	1.52	1.76	1.87	2.45	1.7	2.36	2.08	1.71	1.4	1.22
% of people who were not incapacitated	35%	31%	40%	16%	17%	13%	9%	13%	14%	13%	9%	12%
One-shot-stop %	30%	31%	40%	44%	39%	34%	44%	45%	39%	59%	58%	58%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)	62%	76%	78%	76%	76%	74%	81%	76%	85%	88%	81%	84%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)	49%	60%	72%	62%	55%	47%	61%	52%	51%	53%	80%	86%

[Principle Over Politics]

I found the same to be true with the balistic tips. Strange that so many westerns states outfitters and guides will not allow them.

[BooBoo1000]

My selection of hand gun for personal protection, seem to work well, I have had to produce it twice in bad situations, and both times the Smith and Wesson 44 Special loaded with 240 grain simi-wadcutter has proved to be the final word in the argument.God Bless Elmer Keith.

[ASA Vet]

Strange that so many westerns states outfitters and guides will not allow them.

Maybe they charge extra for following a wounded animals trail. Don't know, never used such services.

[UnwashedPeasant]

Does it make sense for the analyst to combine data for the .357 magnum and the .357 Sig?

I thought these were very different.

[Principle Over Politics]

So you are saying that you have shot someone in self protection using your S&W 44 Special?

You say “produce” and not “shot”. If you were brandishing as a method to deter, why do you think that particular model and caliber was more affective than any other for that purpose?

[NFHale]

For what it’s worth...I practice the “Holy Trinity” method - heart-heart-head, from a cold draw - so I won’t ever have to worry about it.

I carry a G19 124g NATO hardball, and a backup SW642 with Nyclad hollow +Ps.

I’m here to tell ya brother - the attacker WILL be stopped.

[Charles Martel]

Does it make sense for the analyst to combine data for the .357 magnum and the .357 Sig?

I thought these were very different.

I don't know much about the Sig cartridge, but I suspect it has turned up in very few shootings compared with the .357 Magnum. Doubt if it skewed the data much, if at all. But I agree - unless the projectile weights and muzzle velocities are *very* comparable, the two cartridges should be analyzed separately.

[nerdwithagun]

First off, I am not a hunter. I do love guns and I do read articles and forums on hunting. I have read many times that ballistic tip (we are talking about the rubber tips, right?) have a tendency to shatter if you are too close. Lots of horror stories of hog and deer with broken bones, but not severed vitals. On the flip side, I have heard wonderful things about Nosler and that they won't shatter at shorter distances.

[trebb]

It's a .32 pistol and pretty old. My dad was an avid collector and brought me up in the NRA. He gave it to my wife some years ago as a not-too-bulky means of self-defense. I'm not sure of the model, but it is stamped with:

FABRIQUE NATIONALE D'ARMES GUERRE HERSTAL BELGIQUE

BROWNING'S PATENT DEPOSE

It's comfortable in my hand and small enough that it fits her hand just fine.

[trebb]

A couple things about your post:

Wearing armor and being prepared for a 7.62 is nothing like taking a .45 hollow point to the flesh. Slow down the 7.62 a bit and the danger is of a clean-through shot that misses a vital spot - the sheer speed and liquid shock wave of it going through flesh is the greatest knock-down power. Plus the bullet itself is pretty light and easily deflected by even twigs and brush that a slow, "benign" .45 wouldn't even notice. Show me a man that remains on his feet when popped in the chest with a .45 hollow point and I'll show you someone who is extremely bulky and still going to fall.

I never claimed anything about a .45 being good for concealed use - I have a couple Army Colt .45s. With the standard barrel and not too much wear, you can do a decent job at 50 feet for competition shooting. Being slow slugs and since the pistols weren't really finely machined target-grade weapons, one can't expect super accuracy. Besides most self-defense usage is well within the 50 foot range and pointing without using the sights is fine for that range.

[hiredhand]

I'm not sure. The data on the .357 is impressive, but in the grand scheme of things, it's splitting hairs to compare them all as apples to apples. :-)

[hiredhand]

We run that same drill here with the 1911 using a “mild” 185gr SWC handload. Outside of about 20 feet our percentage of headshots on the final round drops a lot though. What distance do you practice at? Thanks buddy. :-)

[hiredhand]

Er... military training? No military training teaches one to stay focused and relatively level headed during a lethal force encounter. Nothing I was ever taught prepared me for an encounter with the very first person who actually wanted to harm me because I wore a uniform. If a person were ever in a "hot spot" over time, that will definitely cause a different mindset and reactions. But it's difficult to impossible to actually "train" people to be calm under the conditions in a firefight... or any other sort of fight for that matter.

There's a lot of documentation and still living witnesses that unfortunate event in 1986 and the FBI made many, MANY tactical errors. Among other things, they were policing brass before reloading. But aside from that, it was largely an issue of .38 SPCL revolvers up against a determined badguy who had a Ruger Mini-14 (or where there two of them?). There are many documented instances of people sustaining lethal wounds and not realizing it until they collapse from blood loss.

Not to be hard on you... I just doubt that military training had anything to do with it. :-)

[hiredhand]

Yes indeed! Size MATTERS. However, hydraulic shock transfer from rounds such as the .357 Mag and .357 Sig can also tear major vessels, whereas the (comparatively) slow moving .45 ACP is less apt to do this.

I get a chuckle out of the fact that people even compare anything nowadays to a handgun and it's cartridge first devised/manufactured over one hundred years ago and remains largely unchanged today... 1911 .45ACP. How cool is that? :-)

[hiredhand]

8,000 pounds at 45mph runnin yer ass over is tough to deal with! LOL! You crack me up. :-)

[hiredhand]

There’s also the en-bloc clip such as employed by the M-1 Garrand. :-)

[freepersup]

I agree that your self defense selection for human quarry is damn near unmatchable, what with the destructive nature of the caliber matched with type specific ammo.

Off topic- I plan on carrying the Ruger Alaskan Red Hawk 454 Casull into grizzly bear territory due to the ballistics. I only wish that they made it in auto w/ a high capacity mag. ;0)

FWIW: I dig your sensibilities around these parts Squantos.

freepersup

aim small - miss small

[ASA Vet]

I was able to find magazines for two different model years, but no clip.

[marktwain]

Does it make sense for the analyst to combine data for the .357 magnum and the .357 Sig? I thought these were very different.

The .357 Sig was designed to duplicate what was thought to be the best .357 magnum load for stopping power. That was a semi-jacketed hollowpoint 125 grain load at 1450 feet per second or better.

I suspect that is why he grouped them together.