YOU SCARE KITTY!...............
Posted on 07/05/2011 6:55:54 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Why the Dow will end up plunging to 7,000
By Douglas A. McIntyre
There are too many financial risks on the horizon that are being dismissed
One theory of economics says that any market can return to a point where it has been in the past. The Great Recession was, by some measures as bad as the Great Depression. Unemployment was 3.6 percent in November 1966. It was at 4 percent in December 1999. There is no precedent for zero unemployment, but those two periods came close.
Recent movements in the stock market could repeat themselves as the economy lurches toward another recession. The DJIA fell to just below 6,630 on March 2, 2009. Back in October 2007, 17 months earlier, it briefly traded above 14,000. What happened? The most frequent answer is the recession that lasted from December 2007 until June 2009, a period determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, caused the collapse. The recession lasted 18 months, which made it the longest of any downturn since World War II.
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...
P!
“One theory of economics says that any market can return to a point where it has been in the past.”
That’s worthy of being a “theory”?
Interesting coming from the Obama media group.
Don’t fight the Fed, but then again those cloistered fools absolutely refuse to listen to outside forces, so when we finally get the “collapse” it will be a biblical sized doozy (IMO).
This article does not contain a single mention of Obama. The name does not appear. Missing the forest for the trees.
YOU SCARE KITTY!...............
Yes, it’s called the “Theory of the UNEXPECTED” among economists.
They reference it practically every week...................
I remain largely out of equities, in spite of being tempted by the 500-points-down-then-500-point-up movements this year. I don’t care to waste my effort trying to time a market driven not by fundamentals but by high-frequency trading machines playing the Algorithm Tango with Monopoly Money.
” The DJIA fell to just below 6,630 on March 2, 2009. Back in October 2007, 17 months earlier, it briefly traded above 14,000. What happened? “
......... Obama
Reasons given are all good. Left unsaid is the likelihood of a war in the MiddleEast, with a major disruption of oil flow..
Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St., LLC. He has previously been the Editor-in-Chief and Publisher of Financial World Magazine. He was also the first president of Switchboard.com when it was the 10th most visited website in the world, according to Media Metrix. He has been CEO of FutureSource, LLC and On2 Technologies, Inc. He has served on the board of directors of Vicinity Corporation, The Street.com, and Edgar Online. McIntyre is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard.
Yeah, that’s the cover Obama/Wall St. can hide behind. So from their point of view, it should happen, despite what they are saying in public.
Oh, it wouldn’t be obamas fault. Just a “market cycle” thing.
After all, obama ended the Bush recession only 6 months after taking office. All the genius messiah had to do was order his pelosi handmaiden to ram through several trillion in new deficit “spending”. Don’t you feel comfortable with Tax-Cheat Tim Geithner and Helicopter Ben Bernanke tinkering with our economy? Such track records of success.
Only republicans and their big business interests cause recession and depression, you know .. Want to bet that from their well-feathered academic/corporate board/progressive think tank subsidized nests, Cristine Romer, Peter Orszag, and Austan Goolsbee are already writing books about how the inherited Bush recession became the next great depression....(sarc)
Apart from QE this or that, I honestly don’t see what’s holding the market up.
It is an election year, I could see the fed and treasury attempting to do what it can to avoid a market correction until after the election.
Who knows.
Interesting that it does NOT reflect the current estimates of a bumper corn crop in spite of all the flooding and bad weather. Food prices that are corn based - - including beef, chicken and pork should go down with the price of corn.
I have never supported market timing. I am not convinced that market timing has driven the market’s increase in the last two years. After the initial recovery in market values (perhaps to 8,000 or so), I think that the government policy has created a bubble. The stimulus first created artificial wealth. The extraordinary interest rate policies has cemented the bubble. With much fear about the bond market, investors have moved to equities as a defensive strategy. The market is definitely in a bubble that can be burst with ugly results.
You're going to see massive sectarian warfare in Egypt after the election..it's going to be grim for the Copts.
As Obama's numbers tank, and his re-election looks more and more unlikely, the chances of war increase. EVERY GOp cnadidate is a strong defender of Israel..so the crazies in Iran, Syria, and elsewhere may well figure this is the best chance they have to beat Israel, as Obama is unlikey to strongly come to Israel's defense..
I agree. There is a bubble in both equities and commodities largely created by the Fed’s ultra-low interest rate policy, in concert with their monetization of Treasury debt, the proceeds of which flow to the primary dealers and then naturally into shares of CITI, BAC, SPY, etc.
Digital Dollars. When .gov can create as many as needed to run through the economy - well - the market will respond with inflated numbers every time.
The problem of course is that inflated dollars are not/will not be worth as much if inflation or hyperinflation decide to follow the path of least resistance.
Bulls, Bears, - to me it doesn’t matter. The only tangible way to use them is in sausage. :-)
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