Posted on 06/15/2011 7:42:13 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
A bad poll for everyone involved, including Mitt. Granted, he’s gained nine points since the last time the Journal surveyed the race (Huckabee was still in play at the time), but only 45 percent of Republicans say they’re happy with the field as is. Four years ago at this time, that number was 73 percent. Just 24 percent say they’re confident in Romney’s ability to be president; in 2007, even John Edwards hit 31 percent. Clearly the base wants more options and the Palin/Cain/Perry constituencies aren’t natural defectors to Romney, so one of those three is bound to start consolidating the anti-Mitt faction as we get closer to the primaries. Bachmann, meanwhile, finishes with just three percent if Palin/Cain/Perry are in the race and at 11 percent if they aren’t. Disappointing, but since the polling ended on Monday, her star turn at the debate hasn’t been priced in yet. The big loser is Pawlenty at just six percent, two points behind Gingrich(!) and tied for seventh with … Rick Santorum. And if you pull Palin, Perry, and Cain out of the field, T-Paw finishes dead last. I know, I know — “it’s still early” — but read Mike Murphy’s post from yesterday. It’s not as early as you think, especially with Perry poised to jump in and become the “not Romney” in the race. Pawlenty needs to show donors that he’s worth investing in, but polling behind Ron Paul and Newt shows them the opposite.
It’s not all sunshine and candy canes for Perry either. Behold:
We like to goof on The One for blaming Bush for his problems, but the reason he does that is because it works. People remember who was president when the financial crisis struck, they remember having utterly lost confidence in that guy for various reasons during his second term, and they’re prepared to cut O a wide, wide berth on the economy because of it. That’s Perry’s misfortune, of course, because not only does he hold Bush’s old job, but superficially he sounds a bit like him when he talks and even has some biographical overlap (they were both military pilots). We’d all like to think his record of job creation in Texas will immunize him from Bush comparisons, but don’t underestimate the ability of the low-information voter to draw the wrong conclusion from a simple, endlessly repeated set of facts. More:
Those numbers will move as we get closer to the election — note how the number who say he inherited the economy plunged as the midterms approached — but after two and a half years of dreariness, they’re remarkably resilient in his favor.
But wait, it gets worse:
Turning to Republicans’ proposal to overhaul Medicare — transforming the government-run health program into a system where future seniors receive a subsidy or voucher to help them purchase private insurance — 31 percent say it’s a bad idea, which is up nine points since April.
Just 22 percent say it’s a good idea, which is virtually unchanged from last month. And 45 percent say they have no opinion.
That number’s not quite kosher insofar as the poll question describes Ryan’s plan as a voucher system even though it isn’t exactly. The sample favors Democrats by eight points too so the hard numbers here aren’t quite as bad as they look, but the trend is worrisome if nothing else. The Journal described Ryan’s plan as a voucher system last time too and opposition was nine points lower, which suggests the GOP really is losing the messaging war. Also this:
In other words, not only does O have a viable back-up campaign narrative with “blame Bush for the economy,” he may have a very viable lead narrative in Mediscaring. See what I mean about it being a bad poll? Exit question: How can Tim Pawlenty still be trailing a guy whose favorable rating dropped 18 points in two months?
June 9-13, 2011 MSNBC-WSJ
(ASK ONLY OF REG VOTERS (F1a:1) WHO SAY THEY WOULD VOTE IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY Q11:1)
Q12a Let me read you a list of people who might seek the 2012 Republican nomination for president. If you were
voting today in the 2012 Republican primary for president, which one of the following candidates would you
favor?
(READ LIST. RANDOMIZE. IF “NOT SURE,” ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY
ONE ANSWER.)^
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED 6/11^
Mitt Romney ........ 30
Sarah Palin ........ 14
Herman Cain ........ 12
Rick Perry .......... 8
Ron Paul ............ 7
Newt Gingrich ....... 6
Tim Pawlenty ........ 4
Rick Santorum ....... 4
Michele Bachmann .... 3
Jon Huntsman ........ 1
Other (VOL) ......... 1
None (VOL) .......... 2
Not sure ............ 8
^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters
who say they would vote in the Republican Primary
Paul is his own breed all by himself. Neither conservative nor “Center right,” just (radical) libertarian. Most Paul voters (not all, but they are very rare exceptions) wouldn’t vote for any of the other Republican candidates.
Its worse. They believe in climate change.
The term "global warming" will be sent down the memory hole by the end of the year.
I mean a GOP by from MSDNC !
Did the lefty PPP do the polling again !
Pure crap.
Wow....MSM really wants Romney to run....he’s their guy. Kind of like having McCain run last election....the MSM gets to pick who they want to run against the Democrat, so that it doesn’t matter who wins—they are both Progressive/Marxists.
Polls exist to control how and what people think....they make up the numbers....they act like it is scientific, but it never is. Questions are ALWAYS skewed........it is to make people feel ostracized if they aren’t on the “group-think” wagon.
GOP has been infiltrated by Progressives who are the same as Marxists. Don’t fall for Romney—— he is zero-light — all ends up in Serfdom.
Oh, I actually think Romney might be worse than John McCain because with John McCain we knew what we were getting. Romney simply morphs into whatever he thinks people want to see.
Last summer Romney was the keynote speaker at the WA state Republican convention. He cried, just like Glenn Beck, when he talked about what Obama was doing to the country, as if he would do anything different.
I made the effort to view the entire Chris Wallace interview with Sarah. Michele and Herman could not have fielded the panoply of questions as deftly. She is VERY quick on her feet, and right on point. IMO, only Paul Ryan and Allen West could have performed as well, and they are regarded as super intellects.
For my money, ONLY Sarah Palin has the star power and relentlessness to prevent socialist Milt Romney from winning the nomination. It is my hope that conservatives coalesce around Sarah, and quickly! Bob
I take it you really don’t like Romney then? This poll is from the WSJ - hardly a left-wing msm institution....which actually blows your whole argument.
Never mind that Obama was a member of a church that held America in contempt, the MSM will drag out all those questionable Mormon concepts. Maybe even how we would deal with a Second Lady or even a Third Lady. They will not be open minded at all.
This is BS poll. It’s designed to discourage Palin voters.
Tell you right now Palin is probably going to get the nomination. So the Elite are throwing everything they can at her including the Kitchen sink.
Think about it for a minute. Did they search through Romney’s email? Why not he is the #1 contender according to their polls? Nope they went after Palin and she has not even declared if she is running.
Make no mistake the Elite are scared of Palin. Don’t fall for their B.S. polls.
WSJ is controlled by the same cabal....sure, they throw a bone on occasion to look Conservative, but I read philosophy on their pages that would make Marx smile and applaud. Same elite-controlling group think...same Logical Positivism.....just appears to be different, unless you study psychiatry and philosophy and can read through the lines.
I dropped that paper a few years ago when I saw their “Progressive” garbage poking through the lines.
Is it playing with fire? Only if you think an east coast RINO can win. Then again, who is our great candidate that will lead us out of darkness if Sarah Palin isn't the Great Pumpkin?
Though not covered in the media (busy playing racist card), I think there are still those who will not vote for a female president.” ===============
I know you to be correct absolutely. I can’t name a woman of the Thatcher stature in the US for whom I would vote for president, (unless against Obama).
(On the other hand, the same could be said in recent cycles of the male candidates aside Thatcher).
We will not allow the MSM & their slanted polls to pick our candidate again. No way are we going to sit back and allow a RINO to represent us this election.
I don’t think that the Democrats will challenge Romney on the Mormonism. I think that the plan is to stir up enough dissension among the conservatives to cause a third party revolt. I think that has been the plan all along.
WHAT the MSM WILL NEVER COVER:
Behold the now-convicted felon behind the flipflop-RINO,
as they impose Romney’s ObamaCARE.
Obama and Romney are in a "dead heat" because they are the same. Twins.
Same ineligibility.
Same link to fascism and RomneyCARE.
Same link to IAG and European Sharia.
Same link to Soros.
PLEASE GOD GIVE US A PALIN-BACHMAN TICKET!!!!!!!!!
Surprised any good Conservative would even quote Mike Murphy of Time magazine??
The NBC/WAS poll is a freakin joke! Chucky Todd has some input into the wording of the questions.
Also I tried to read this entire poll, just so long and so many questions, tried to find out who they actually polled, it looks like they just polled adults over 18?? Correct me if I am wrong.
I do not trust any of the pollsters, regardless how my candidate comes out in any of them, top bottom whatever, they are all liars.
Any chance of a Palin/Bachmann ticket died when MB decided to have her people trash Sarah.
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