Posted on 06/15/2011 7:42:13 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
A bad poll for everyone involved, including Mitt. Granted, he’s gained nine points since the last time the Journal surveyed the race (Huckabee was still in play at the time), but only 45 percent of Republicans say they’re happy with the field as is. Four years ago at this time, that number was 73 percent. Just 24 percent say they’re confident in Romney’s ability to be president; in 2007, even John Edwards hit 31 percent. Clearly the base wants more options and the Palin/Cain/Perry constituencies aren’t natural defectors to Romney, so one of those three is bound to start consolidating the anti-Mitt faction as we get closer to the primaries. Bachmann, meanwhile, finishes with just three percent if Palin/Cain/Perry are in the race and at 11 percent if they aren’t. Disappointing, but since the polling ended on Monday, her star turn at the debate hasn’t been priced in yet. The big loser is Pawlenty at just six percent, two points behind Gingrich(!) and tied for seventh with … Rick Santorum. And if you pull Palin, Perry, and Cain out of the field, T-Paw finishes dead last. I know, I know — “it’s still early” — but read Mike Murphy’s post from yesterday. It’s not as early as you think, especially with Perry poised to jump in and become the “not Romney” in the race. Pawlenty needs to show donors that he’s worth investing in, but polling behind Ron Paul and Newt shows them the opposite.
It’s not all sunshine and candy canes for Perry either. Behold:
We like to goof on The One for blaming Bush for his problems, but the reason he does that is because it works. People remember who was president when the financial crisis struck, they remember having utterly lost confidence in that guy for various reasons during his second term, and they’re prepared to cut O a wide, wide berth on the economy because of it. That’s Perry’s misfortune, of course, because not only does he hold Bush’s old job, but superficially he sounds a bit like him when he talks and even has some biographical overlap (they were both military pilots). We’d all like to think his record of job creation in Texas will immunize him from Bush comparisons, but don’t underestimate the ability of the low-information voter to draw the wrong conclusion from a simple, endlessly repeated set of facts. More:
Those numbers will move as we get closer to the election — note how the number who say he inherited the economy plunged as the midterms approached — but after two and a half years of dreariness, they’re remarkably resilient in his favor.
But wait, it gets worse:
Turning to Republicans’ proposal to overhaul Medicare — transforming the government-run health program into a system where future seniors receive a subsidy or voucher to help them purchase private insurance — 31 percent say it’s a bad idea, which is up nine points since April.
Just 22 percent say it’s a good idea, which is virtually unchanged from last month. And 45 percent say they have no opinion.
That number’s not quite kosher insofar as the poll question describes Ryan’s plan as a voucher system even though it isn’t exactly. The sample favors Democrats by eight points too so the hard numbers here aren’t quite as bad as they look, but the trend is worrisome if nothing else. The Journal described Ryan’s plan as a voucher system last time too and opposition was nine points lower, which suggests the GOP really is losing the messaging war. Also this:
In other words, not only does O have a viable back-up campaign narrative with “blame Bush for the economy,” he may have a very viable lead narrative in Mediscaring. See what I mean about it being a bad poll? Exit question: How can Tim Pawlenty still be trailing a guy whose favorable rating dropped 18 points in two months?
Where did they poll? Boston?.......
This is how they described the poll :
The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll was conducted of 1,000 adults (200 reached by cell phone) from June 9-13, and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.
...sponsored by the Temple Square Committee.... get real...no votes from evangelicals....
"Romney and Gingrich believe in global warming..."
Doesn't help that many conservative seasoned citizens also don't want Medicare touched - even if the changes won't effect them or anyone over 55. Also doesn't help that Fox News gives Trump the clown almost a daily platform to trash Paul Ryan and the reforms he is proposing.
While I do think it is the right thing to do to actually try to reform these entitlements, politically it may be impossible. Medicare and Social Security may just have to die on the vine. People simply aren't serious about curtailing the social welfare state. Heck, most seem to think the problem can be solved by cutting foreign aid and eliminating "waste, fraud and abuse". Greece, here we come!
This is funny,Only rats would come up with those bogus numbers and expect people to believe them,Note, I said “people” Democommies are not people, they are a form of parasite.
Though not covered in the media (busy playing racist card), I think there are still those who will not vote for a female president.
This is a really dopey analysis by Allahpundit.
And the MAM full court press for “Romney as Savior” keeps on a rollin’. *eye roll*
And I know we all say it, but it bears repeating, polls this far out mean NOTHING... even the ones we like.
This poll isn’t worth the paper I’m not gonna print it on. It’s all too early, nobody should even be RUNNING yet...
This is all just so stupid.
Meaningless at this stage.
So far Michelle Bachmann shines, but if Palin enters the race who knows at this point which one will get my vote?
This poll isn’t worth the paper I’m not gonna print it on. It’s all too early, nobody should even be RUNNING yet...
But they are some running and people have opinions whether you or I like them or not.
(ASK ONLY OF REG VOTERS (F1a:1) WHO SAY THEY WOULD VOTE IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY Q11:1) Q12a Let me read you a list of people who might seek the 2012 Republican nomination for president. If you were voting today in the 2012 Republican primary for president, which one of the following candidates would you favor? (READ LIST. RANDOMIZE. IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.)^ THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED 6/11^ Mitt Romney ........ 30 Sarah Palin ........ 14 Herman Cain ........ 12 Rick Perry .......... 8 Ron Paul ............ 7 Newt Gingrich ....... 6 Tim Pawlenty ........ 4 Rick Santorum ....... 4 Michele Bachmann .... 3 Jon Huntsman ........ 1 Other (VOL) ......... 1 None (VOL) .......... 2 Not sure ............ 8 ^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary
Actually it is a very good poll in my view. I read it:
1. Conservatives candidates: 50% [Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Palin, Paul, Pawlenty, Santorum]
2. Center right candidates: 39% [Huntsman, Perry, Romney]
Now I am happy to hear if you want me to move Paul to the center right or Perry to the conservative column, but I think the point still holds.
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