Skip to comments.Polls, Polls everywhere (Why Neither Trump nor Huckabee are Really Ahead of Palin)
Posted on 04/30/2011 11:11:24 AM PDT by Brices Crossroads
I have been a casual observer of polls for over three decades, since early 1979 (about the same time in the 1980 election cycle as we find ourselves in the 2012 cycle) when Jimmy Carter was posting a 57-35 lead over Ronald Reagan in the respected Gallup poll. Carter maintained double digits leads over Reagan throughout 1979 and even into the spring of 1980, as the March 31, 1980 edition of time observed. ("National opinion polls continue to show Carter leading Reagan by an apparently comfortable margin of about 25%.")
Early polls of general election contests (19 months out) are usually wrong. Early polls of primary contests are almost always wrong because intensity and turnout are even more important in primaries than in general elections, and they are far harder to measure. Indeed, even later polls of primary contests are frequently wrong. Yet many seem to put great stock in them, in spite of their historical inaccuracy. Why are early polls wrong far more often than they are right? The answer to this questions suggests that the actual state of the GOP nomination race is 180 degrees different than the polls suggest.
Why are the early polls so consistently wrong? It is very simple: THERE HAS BEEN NO CAMPAIGN. Or, to be more precise, there has been a one dimensional campaign this cycle in which the Democrat candidate (Obama) and the potential GOP contenders--through their surrogates in the media and the Establishment-- have poured a withering fire of invective and slander on one unannounced candidate, to the exclusion of all others...Sarah Palin. Palin has been able to return the fire against Obama, to great effect (driving his popularity down and his policies into disrepute). But her potential GOP opponents, preferring that others do their fighting for them, are cowering in fear while the Krauthammers, Roves, O'Reillys and other "so-called conservatives of the chattering class" do their fighting for them.
Since it is early, the cowardly pretenders in the GOP still have the luxury of "hanging back" while Palin takes the shots, but their time is running out. They will soon have to come out from behind (or under) the rocks which are protecting them. Every one of them has boxcars full of baggage. Romney has RomneyCare, $50 co-pay abortions, enabling gay marriage in Massachusetts and numerous other disabilities. Huckabee has his history of addiction to big government, tax hikes (his unctuous video pleading with the Arkansas legislature for tax hikes...any tax hikes...is truly nauseating), his ethics issues as Governor, his acceptance of consulting fees while governor, including from embryonic stem cell researchers, and his multiple pardons of violent criminals who later committed horrific crimes. Donald Trump has so much personal and political baggage, (from his flip flops on abortion, gay marriage, his recent past alliances with Hillary Clinton and Rahm Emmanuel and Chuck Schumer) that he is less a serious candidate for the GOP nomination than was one-delegate wonder Rudy Giuliani in 2008 (even though Giuliani led the Rasmussen daily tracking poll, often by lopsided margins,for nearly the entirety of 2007). Newt Gingrich is equally burdened (from his affairs to his political dalliances with Nancy Pelosi and Dede Scozzafava) by so much baggage that it cannot be listed here. These guys do not just represent "targets of opportunity" in a GOP primary. They are swollen pustules which will almost explode on their own. For Palin, this lineup might be denominated "the Great 2012 Turkey Shoot."
Since we are in the sesquicentennial of the Civil War, I am reminded of an analogy. In the battle of Fredericksburg in December 1862 (which is marvelously depicted in the movie "Gods and Generals"), the Union Army hurled over half a dozen assaults at Confederates entrenched on and around Marye's Heights and the stone wall in front of it. The Confederates, who never ventured out from behind their stone wall, poured a murderous fire on the Union troops. The courageous charge of the Irish Brigade, which entered the battle with 1600 men, of which 256 survived, was so inspiring that cheer after cheer went up from the Confederate lines at their bravery.
Fast forward six months to July 3, 1863 at Gettysburg, Pennsylvania. The roles are reversed. It is now the Union Army, with the refitted Irish Brigade in the vanguard, that is entrenched behind the stone wall on Cemetery Ridge. The cream of Lee's undefeated Army of Northern Virginia, 15,000 tough fighting men, lie crouching in the woods, awaiting the order to assault the stone wall. As they step out of the woods, they are formidable, the most intimidating sight the Union troops have ever seen. They march unmolested for about half a mile toward the Union line. THEN THE BATTLE BEGINS. Yankee cannon, solid shot then double canister, and finally thousands of muskets, decimate the ranks of the proud Rebels. To the chants of "Fredericksburg, Fredericksburg" by the now exultant Irish Brigade, barely 6000 of Lee's valiant, but vanquished, soldiers make it back to their lines.
Lee's army looked invincible BEFORE the battle began. Not even the polls suggest that any of the so far unmolested GOP pretenders is invincible. When the GOP dwarfs, hardly as formidable or valiant as Pickett's legions, step out of their hideouts six months hence to give battle in the GOP primaries, they will have to defend their own numerous disabilities and spotty records, which will finally come under a withering assault. Moreover, they will be meeting an opponent who has already been battle hardened and armored by the attacks of their own surrogates. In the primaries next spring, it will be the steely Palin who has the political equivalent of the "stone wall". And the dwarfs will have already spent what ammunition they had on her through the attacks of their surrogates from 2009 to the present. They will be firing blanks at her as they approach.
When the white hot rhetorical and political fire is aimed at her opponents (as it will be) and they fold, those of us who support Sarah Palin will try not to gloat. Perhaps we can be forgiven if we just just whisper among ourselves, "Fredericksburg, Fredericksburg."
The best thing for Obama would be for Romney to run and win in the primaries. Even if Romney won in the general, he would simply cement ObamaCare and the rest of the socialist policies in place and ensure America’s demise.
I can’t wait to see Donald Chump and Hucka-Phony (Hat-tip: Mark Levin) get destroyed by Sarah in a debate.
Mamma Grizzlies can be very dangerous when annoyed....
I am of much the same opinion. Romney is already a dead man walking, Trump is a pop-bottle rocket.
I’ll be voting for Sarah Palin, Liberty, our Constitution and the American Exceptionalism. Period.
Kudos. Good analysis.
Great post Brice, love the CW analogies....we are the Palin Wolverines! Grab your musket the yellow stripes are coming.
Sarah is just waiting for the right time, Palinista’s keep your powder dry!
Ya know, I've been watching Palin up here in Alaska since early 90's and she does have a record of accomplishment that would put many a political to shame. I just wish she was still our Governor; it's all went down hill since she left. She was pretty good at running the show, Alaska benefited immensely; should have just made her Queen and be done with it; no joke.
Ya know, Palin is best when right off the top she says what she really thinks. Palin knows more than anybody that her connection and trust of the people is what matters, bottom line.
I agree that Sarah Palin is battle-hardened and the other alleged contenders simply are not. Huckabee is probably out, already. Romney will hang in until he fails to get primary votes and the contributions dry up, although the leftmedia will try to prop him up as long as possible as, what they hope, will be an 'alternative' to the conservative candidate, Sarah Palin, whom the mediaq will demonize as 'extreme', 'unelectable' and, my favorite, 'controversial' (but only if you're a liberal). Gingrich has never had much traction and won't go very far. Trump, obviously, is the 'wild card' in the deck but I expect that he'll announce he's not running when his TV show ends in 3 weeks. Too expensive - and who would want the financial colonoscopy a billionaire like Trump would have to endure? If that weren't enough, there would be the attacks on every aspect of his life, including his family. Who could endure that and come up victorious?
Oh, wait, Sarah Palin already has. Making her ready and able to withstand the barrage the leftmedia will unload on her if and when she announces her candidacy for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. Fortunately, at this point, the left doesn't really have much ammunition. In terms of attacking Sarah Palin, they peaked too soon. Loons such as Andrew Sullivan ranting about toddler Trig Palin not being Tod and Sarah's natural child is so vile that it disgusts most sane people so that kind of garbage backfires on the Palin-hating left. The GOP elites are rightfully losing their grip on the nominating process. Thank God. We can't afford another McCain. This election could well be Americas last chance to get it right. Sarah Palin isn't a messiah or superwoman but an intelligent, resourceful, bold and patriotic leader who can at least begin to turn the Titanic that is the United States away from the iceberg that is the socialist path we're on, now. That way lies disaster. Sarah Palin offers a realistic alternative. I pray that she runs and if she does, I believe she'll win the nomination and the presidency. She'll have my vote!
Thanks for your insights, Eska. I agree with you especially about her record of accomplishment. Her record of accomplishment is the one thing about her that has NOT been aired, but I know that is going to be one of her top priorities.
The dwarfs, on the other hand, all have spotty records. While they are being deflated by the scrutiny of their own shoddy records, Palin’s own record of reducing spending in Alaska, forcing the oil companies to drill on leases or give them up and rebating the royalties from the drilling to the people (as required by the Alaska Constitution).
As she is being lifted by the scrutiny of her record, the others will be plummeting becasue of the (long delayed) scrutiny of their records.
Excellent insights, as always, Jim!
Check out this video from 2008 when Huckabee meekly raises his hand to say global warming is both man made and serious. He is third from the right in the video:
Romney, McCain, Huckabee and Rudy all raised their hands, signifying that they buy into the global warming agitprop.
Amen to that!
No more holding the nose and voting for a RINO.
Not gonna do it.
When the RNC sends me fundraising pleas(ever since 2008), I always send back the pre-paid envelope with a message saying I will only vote for and contribute to Sarah Palin for POTUS. End of story.
I hear they are hurting for money at the RNC. Go figure.
This is true. Not ONE of them has even one ball. Sarah's guts and smarts are going to win the day. I was "on the fence" about her as a candidate for a long time, even though I live in Wasilla, and love her to pieces. I just wasn't really sure if she was going to jump in or not. As time has gone by, she has shown her mettle. She has proved time and again that she has more of what it takes than the whole rest of the field combined. I sincerely believe that there is not a single candidate out there who has her qualifications and experience.
“Sarah’s guts and smarts are going to win the day. I was “on the fence” about her as a candidate for a long time, even though I live in Wasilla, and love her to pieces. I just wasn’t really sure if she was going to jump in or not. As time has gone by, she has shown her mettle. She has proved time and again that she has more of what it takes than the whole rest of the field combined. I sincerely believe that there is not a single candidate out there who has her qualifications and experience.”
Great post! My sentiments exactly. Should be repeated often.
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