Think $5 Corn Is Expensive? Some Are Betting On $10 Next Year

Cattle Network ^ | 11/12/10

[FromLori]

The corn market’s rally above $5 a bushel this fall has stirred growing consternation among livestock producers and others dependent on the largest U.S. crop. As the global grain supply outlook tightens, some traders in Chicago are placing bets that prices may double next year.

Over the past week, trading firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and MF Global Holdings Ltd. bought call option contracts that would pay off if corn rose above $10 or $11 a bushel next spring. The options are traded at Chicago-based CME Group, along with futures based on grain, cattle, hogs and other commodities.

It’s rare to see trading in so-called “strike” prices at such lofty levels, CME options traders say. The recent trading reflects heightened concern that smaller-than-expected U.S. crops and increasing demand from top buyers such as China will force grain prices even higher in 2011, said Ed Van, a broker in the CME’s corn options pit.

“There’s real risk out there” for higher prices, Van said. He’s been trading in the corn options pit since the contract was launched in 1985 and said he’d never seen an $11 call traded until the past week. “Price rationing could take it up further. I would certainly think we’re headed higher.”

Concern over tight supplies also spilled into the soybean market, where $20 call options traded over the past week, a premium of more than 50 percent over current futures prices.

[Domandred]

On another note corn gets any higher and it will make financial sense to grow it in your back yard. Last several years it’s been a loss to grow corn at home.

[Cheetahcat]

“It won’t happen, much more corn will be grown next year.

Supply / Demand What a concept”

You are right.

[bgill]

I was going to get some 4/$1 corn on the cob today but the ears were to tiny that I passed it up.

An update on the empty shelves at the store and them not having some of the advertised specials - shelves were still empty and specials were still not available unless you had connections. I felt like it was the black market or a “Dave, open up, I’ve got the stuff” deal because I had to talk to a specific manager and he had to go to the back and bring it out. He only brought out as many of the item as we requested but not any extra to stock the shelves. At the checkout, the cashier and sacker both made comments. But my freezer and my friend’s freezers are now both full. I hooked her up with my connection and I scored a bag... of homegrown pecans from her, so all’s good. Just hoping this was some freakish week and not a preview of what’s ahead in these troubling days.

[SunkenCiv]

All of this is of course, nonsense, unless perchance fuel prices rise above $6 a gallon next year.

As my dad used to say, when the expectation is for a really high price (corn or whatever) expect the farmers to plow all the way out to the middle of the road.

Thanks FromLori.

• Out-going ag commissioner gives raises to dozens of state employees. (GA)
• The Bum Rap on Biofuels
• Campaign to vilify ethanol revealed

[SunkenCiv]

/bingo

[ConservaTexan]

I have been enjoying the drop in prices this year vs. last, this article leads me to believe that may be over.
I am in the 3k# a year range.

[SunkenCiv]

• Loaf of wheat bread may soon cost $23 due to skyrocketing food price inflation [Tinfoil cheap as ever]

  ---

• U.S. Ethanol Production Nearing One Million Barrels Per Day -- ...for America, slashing off the equivalent of 750,000 b/d of imported oil is a good thing... Most groans come from the odd couple of the oil business and the special mis-interests of food vs. fuel... the corn they so love is as a practical matter human inedible -- sweet corn its not -- while the ultra cheap high fructose corn sweetener of considerable concern in the fattening and obesity of Americans is getting closer to the price of sugar. Factually, sugar whether from corn or sugarcane or sugar beets is still cheap -- for food it's the processing and packaging that costs the big dollars.

[tubebender]

Ag Ping...

[Free Vulcan]

I know some farmers that got 25 bushels to the acre this year on some of their fields.

[SunkenCiv]

Note: this topic is from 11/15/2010. Thanks FromLori.

Just a little blast from the past.

[jjotto]

Iowa in April 2012, going price for corn is $6.00-6.50/bushel; average yield in 2011 was 172 bushels/acre (some counties averaged 200+).

Soybeans are at $14.25-14.80/bushel.