Posted on 11/03/2010 6:12:42 PM PDT by RobFromGa
2012 Senate Forecasts—The First Look
Dateline: Day after election 2010
By: RobFromGa
Since the 2010 Senate races are now almost all decided (only WA and AK remain), it is time to look forward to the 2012 Senate Races where the Dems are going to have a tough slate to defend.
The Dems need to defend 21 seats to only 10 for the GOP (there are two independents as well-- Lieberman and Sanders who both caucus with the Dems so the Dem caucus is actually defending 23 to only 10 for the GOP)
Some history about the 2006 Midterms for those of you who may have blocked this from your memory…
Midterms 2006 was a strong cycle for the Dems and everything fell into place for them on election day where they won almost every close Senate race. These seats won in 2006 will have to be defended in 2012 in a completely different political climate*:
1) 2006 was a Midterm so no Presidential “coat-tails” came into play.
2) Bush was very unpopular in 2006 and Iraq War fatigue was peaking.
3) GOP didn’t field strong candidates in some races.
4) Mainstream media had more power than they have now.
*The 2012 political climate is, of course, impossible to predict. Two years is an eternity-just ask Obama or Nancy Pelosi how things can change.
Since 2012 is a Presidential election year, the top-of-the ticket nominees will have quite a bit of impact on many Senate races and turnout. It is impossible to predict the future this far in advance, but I am assuming that the American electorate will still be interested in economic growth policies that will lead to jobs, and not so interested in increasing the size and scope of the Federal government.
The 21 Dem seats in play in 2012 (alpha by state) :
D1) Feinstein-California. Probably safe. By their 2010 votes, CA has shown they are happy with the current situation. Maybe Feinstein will retire and the GOP would have a better chance against an open seat.
D2) Carper-Delaware. Safe, Delaware is likely a lost cause for a real GOP candidate, and we don't need a RINO...
D3**) Nelson-Florida. Very vulnerable. GOP should get a pickup here with a good candidate.
D4) Akaka-Hawaii. Safe. He's getting pretty old and will be 88 in 2012. Perhaps he will retire but Dems should be able to hold an open seat. Unless retired Gov. Lingle decides to run which would make this race competitive.
D5*) Cardin-Maryland. Slightly vulnerable. It's a blue state but maybe could be won with the right candidate (Steele or Ehrlich?)
D6**) Stabenow-Michigan. Very vulnerable. Put up a good candidate and she is gone. Great pickup opportunity.
D7*) Klobuchar-Minnesota. Slightly vulnerable against the right candidate. Could be Coleman's seat if he wants to work for it.
D8**) McCaskill-Missouri. Very vulnerable. She beat Talent by a nose in 2006 and she will lose to a qualified candidate in 2012. Word is Talent may want a rematch.
D9**) Tester-Montana. Very vulnerable. He barely won in 2006 and he will face a strong challenger in a Red State.
D10**) Nelson-Nebraska. Very vunerable, almost certain GOP pickup.
D11*) Menendez-New Jersey. Slightly vulnerable. Chris Christie has provided a model for victory. we need a solid candidate. (Kean lost in a squeaker last time). With a good candidate this could become Very vulnerable in a hurry.
D12) Bingaman-New Mexico. Probably safe. He's been in since 1982 so perhaps he'll look at retirement. The GOP has a better chance in an open seat.
D13) Gillibrand- New York. Probably safe, the GOP can't seem to do anything right in New York.
D14*) Conrad-North Dakota. Slightly vulnerable. He supported Obamacare which is universally hated in that red state. GOP needs a strong small government candidate though.
D15**) Brown-Ohio. Very vulnerable. Very liberal senator in a state that is not very liberal.
D16**) Casey-Pennsylvania. Very vulnerable. Just hope we can find someone to beat Specter.
D17) Whitehouse-Rhode Island. Safe.
D18*) Webb-Virginia. Slighlty vulnerable. He barely won in an upset against the "macaca challenged" Allen in 2006 and GOP should field a strong candidate against him. He is a fairly moderate Dem and having to face reelection in 2012 should keep him from embracing Obama/Reid policies.
D19*) Cantwell-Washington. Slightly vulnerable. Will Rossi have the desire to try once again?
D20*) Manchin-West Virginia. Slightly vulnerable. 2010 was a special election so only buys Manchin 2 years as Senator. In 2012, Seat will be in play and Manchin will have to remain conservative and steer away from Obama-Reid policies to have a chance for a full term. He could be forced to legislate as he campaigned which will make him essentially an extra GOP Senator these next two years.
D21*) Kohl-Wisconsin. Slightly vulnerable. Who knows? Maybe what happened to Feingold will make him decide to retire...
The 2 Independent seats in play in 2012 :
I1) Lieberman-Conn. Likely safe for I or D candidate.
I2) Sanders-Vermont. Safe.
The 10 Republican seats in play in 2012 :
R1) Kyl-Arizona. Safe.
R2) Lugar-Indiana. Safe.
R3) Snowe-Maine. Likely Safe. Her biggest threat is a Tea Party primary challenger picking her off like Mike Castle in Delaware, which would almost certainly lose the seat to the Dems. She is one of the more liberal GOP Senators from a very blue state.
R4*) Brown-Massachusetts. Very vulnerable. Should face a strong challenge. Call it 50-50 at this point... I would prefer to see Romney run for this seat, instead of President.
R5) Wicker-Miss. Safe.
R6*) Ensign-Nevada. Slightly vulnerable. Will likely retire but GOP can hold the Open seat.
R7) Corker-Tennessee. Safe.
R8) Hutchinson-Texas. Safe. Hutchinson might retire for Governor run in 2014 but GOP can almost certainly hold the open seat.
R9) Hatch-Utah. Safe.
R10) Barasso-Wyoming. Safe.
So, in a nutshell…
The Dems are defending 21 seats and only 6 of them are what I would consider Safe (CA, DE, , NM, NY, RI).
There are also 7 Very vulnerable (FL, MI, MO, MT, NE, OH, and PA) and 8 Slightly vulnerable seats (MD, MN, NJ, ND, VA, WV, WA, and WI). So, the GOP should be possible to pick up 7-10 seats…
The two Independent seats (VT and CT) are likely to remain D or I and continue to caucus with the Dems.
On the GOP side, we are defending 10 seats and only 2 are vulnerable…
The “Kennedy seat” held by Scott Brown in Mass and the seat that is currently held by by Sen. Ensign in Nevada if he doesn’t retire. Just for sake of argument, let’s say we lose one of these two seats.
Assuming we end up in 2010 with 47 GOP Senators (including AK since Murkowski will caucus with GOP and assuming we lose WA)…
If we pick up 7-10 and lose 1 in 2012, this leaves the GOP with a 53-56 seats majority. To get to 60, GOP would need a net pickup of 13 seats (or 12 if Rossi prevails this time around in WA)… To gain the majority we just need net pickup of 3-4 depending on who is Vice President in 2013. This seems to be almost a sure thing.
And 2014 is another good cycle for the GOP…
Missouri - Sarah Steelman (alt. Jim Talent)
Ohio - Rep. Jim Jordan or Lt. Gov Mary Taylor?
Michigan - Candice Miller or Pete Hoekstra or Terry Lynn Land or Mike Rogers?
North Dakota - no idea, but Conrad may retire
Wisconsin - Paul Ryan
Montana - Rehberg
Virginia - Allen
New Mexico (if Bingaman retires) - Pat Lyons, Jon Barela?
Putnam has served like a decade in Congress and was just elected statewide, so it wouldn’t be too soon for him to run for the Senate; but if you mean that it would look bad for him to leave the Ag Commissioner job after only two years, well, yes, that may rub some people the wrong way.
Carroll was a state rep for 8 years IIRC before being elected Lt. Gov., and she served in the Navy for years before first seeking public office. I think she could run for the Senate.
As for Tom Gallagher . . . I don’t know. He seemed to be no more reliable a conservative than Crist when they ran against each other in the 2006 gubernatorial primary.
I second the motion. Chairman Williams would make a kick-ass Senator.
I’m still pissed at KBH for going back on her word.
Oops, I meant *Commissioner* Williams (or would the Chairman of the Railroad Commissioner go by “Chairman Williams”?).
Thanks, Rob.
Yeah, it’s the office-jumping I was concerned about. Putnam, in particular, is like 20 so he can and should be patient. Lt Gov is not such a big problem because no one takes it seriously.
I’d rather see Murray and Smith try their Congressional races again. I don’t see either one as ready for a statewide challenge.
I hope so.
Yes what is LT Governor if not a stepping stone.
And she could run with out risking her post. I don’t think “resign to run” applies.
Some articles have been complaining that that are no Black Senators now. Bemoaning the losses of Thrumond, Meek, and Greene.
What will they say if the only Black candidates in 2012 are Republicans? ;d
Agreed about the third, and after the things Moran said during this campaign, the same must be said about the eighth.
I like Murray. But there a lot of other people in front of him. In full disclosure, I remain (since the 80s), a George Allen loyalist. Yes, I know all of the arguments against him, and won’t get involved in rehashing them on this forum. But as long as he’s in the picture, he remains my first choice.
Chuck Smith is a nice guy, but a less than stellar campaigner. He said he intends to challenge Scott again. I’d say let him and based on that campaign make a decision about supporting him for something else.
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